521
FXUS65 KFGZ 111038
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 AM MST Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and mainly dry conditions persists through the
start of this week. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible each afternoon, primarily from the Mogollon Rim and
south. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms look to
potentially return by the middle to end of this week, along with
cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Tuesday...High pressure now in place over
California and Nevada will continue to pump dry northwesterly
flow into Arizona today. This will largely suppress any monsoonal
moisture to the southern-half of the state, with even less
coverage across central Arizona than we saw yesterday. Hi-res
guidance has considerably backed off on the activity this
afternoon, with most only showing a couple isolated storms from
the Mogollon Rim and south. A similar story looks to unfold on
Tuesday, with only maybe the slightest uptick in coverage. Some
shallow surface moisture from decaying storms over the Lower
Deserts may help to back moisture up to the Rim, but the odds
still look to favor mainly dry conditions. Hot temperatures and
generally typical afternoon breezes are otherwise expected each
day.

Wednesday through Sunday...Model guidance looks to gradually shift
the high further eastward through the week as a trough begins to
develop over the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance from the GEFS,
EPS, and CMCE do show a subtle increase in PWAT for the second-half
of the week, however neither really shows a strong signal. Thus,
their remains the potential that the odds tilt slightly in our favor
for better coverage of showers and thunderstorms to finish out the
week. However, confidence still remains low given the weak signal
and approaching trough, since flow gradually becomes unfavorable for
sufficient moisture transport as the trough draws closer. Cooler more
seasonable temperatures look to set in across northern Arizona as
well, however this will also be somewhat dependent upon the moisture
increase and resulting cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 11/12Z through Tuesday 12/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA from 19Z-02Z, mainly south and east of a KPRC-KFLG-
KRQE line. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around TS. Daytime
winds W/NW 10-15 kts, becoming VRB 5-10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 12/12Z through Thursday 14/12Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon, mainly south and east of a KPRC-KFLG-
KRQE line. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around TS. Daytime
winds W 8-14 kts each day, becoming VRB 5-10 kts overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Hot, breezy, and mainly dry
conditions are expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon, mainly from the Mogollon Rim and south.
Daytime winds west/northwest 5-15 mph. Gusty outflow winds possible
in and around thunderstorms. Minimum afternoon RH values single
digits along and north of I-40, ranging from 10-20% south.

Wednesday through Friday...Turning cooler with increasing chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over the higher
terrain. Winds west 5-15 mph each afternoon. Gusty outflow winds
possible in and around thunderstorms. Minimum afternoon RH values 10-
25% on Wednesday, rising each day to near 20-30% by Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff