673
FXUS65 KFGZ 102144
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
244 PM MST Thu Sep 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for
Friday and into the weekend, along with a modest cooling trend and
breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will return as early as tomorrow as
high pressure reestablishes itself over Arizona. We have entered the
shoulder season, so the moisture pool will occasionally retreat and
then move back northward as it interacts with troughs for the next
several weeks. Eventually, these troughs will sweep the moisture out
permanently, but this looks like it is at least 10 days out.

Southwest breezes will also pick up over the next few days as low
pressure passes to our north, but nothing that will need any
headlines.

So, this is the last very warm day, expect some cooling as showers
pick up heading into the weekend. We should dip back to normal
around Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 10/18Z through Friday 11/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible through 02Z Friday, primarily
south of the I-40 corridor. Daytime sfc winds W-NW5-15kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 11/18Z through Sunday 13/18Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon/early evening.
Daytime sfc winds W-10-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Shower and thunderstorm
activity will increase for Friday and into Saturday as moisture
moves back northward. Wetting rains will be possible with any
thunderstorm. Mainly daytime southwest winds will range from 10
to 15 mph, with gusts from 20 to 25 mph, for both afternoons.

Sunday through Tuesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue. Expect afternoon southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph, with
gusts to near 30 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff