147
FXUS65 KFGZ 211940
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1240 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions over the next week. Cool weather
today will steadily warm up through the weekend. Strong high
pressure builds next week, bringing very warm and possibly record
high temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough moving through Colorado sent a weak push of
cooler air into our region today, along with some northeasterly
breezes. Another trailing shortwave will move south across Arizona
tonight, keeping the northeast breezes (gusts 15-25 mph) going in
localized areas along/south of the Mogollon Rim. Starting
Saturday and continuing through at least Thursday, strong high
pressure will build over the southwest United States. Northern
Arizona can expect well above normal temperatures both day and
night, with some record or near-record highs likely especially
Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be light from the north to
northeast through midweek. Toward the end of next week, there is a
bit more uncertainty in the weather pattern, with some ensemble
members including the operational GFS bringing low pressure into
the region off the Pacific as early as Friday. However, the
majority of members keep the ridge over us through Friday. Our
current forecasts indicate daytime highs 15-20 degrees above
seasonal averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 21/18Z through Saturday 22/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds NE 10-15g20kts over higher terrain roughly
along a line from KKNB-KGCN-KFLG-KPAN southwestward. N-NE winds 5-
10kts elsewhere. Winds decrease tonight, but may gust to 25kts just
SW of higher terrain, including terminal KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 22/18Z through Monday 24/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds generally variable and less than 10kts.
Localized NE gusts to 20kts possible each night just SW of the
higher terrain, including terminal KSEZ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry and turning warmer. North
through northeast winds decrease tonight, but will remain gusty just
southwest of higher terrain. Winds generally light and variable
Saturday and Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Turning very warm and continued dry.
Winds generally variable and less than 10 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff