783
FXUS65 KFGZ 062341
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
441 PM MST Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and mainly dry conditions will continue into
next week. Expect generally light winds through the weekend,
gradually increasing next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak flow pattern aloft will remain over Arizona
into Wednesday. During this period high pressure in the subtropics
will start out over northern Mexico but then gradually migrate
westward to off the Baja California coast. Arizona will remain on
the northern fringes on the main high center with a series of
weak shortwave troughs and ridges impacting our area. The result
of this pattern is that limited moisture will linger and combine
with daytime heating to produce slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms, mainly near the Utah and New Mexico borders. Away
from the border area it will be a bit more stable with mountain
areas seeing fair weather cumulus buildups nearly every day.
Otherwise, look for generally light breezes at 5 to 15 mph with
occasional higher gusts and daytime temperatures around 5 degrees
above seasonal averages.

Beyond Wednesday...Models show a longwave trough developing along
the west coast. The west coast trough in combination with the
subtropical high to the south will strengthen pressure gradients
for gusty southwest winds. In addition, the stronger southwest flow
will sweep out some of the lingering moisture for drier
conditions and some increase in the fire weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 07/00Z through Sunday 08/00Z...VFR
conditions. Some isolated -SHRA/-TSRA northwest of a KGCN-KPGA
line, with activity ending after 01-02Z. Winds are light and VRB
or terrain driven tonight, then SW-W 5-15 kts during the day
tomorrow.


OUTLOOK...Sunday 08/00Z through Tuesday 10/00Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are W-NW 5-15 kts on Sunday, turning SW-W on Tuesday. Winds
are light and VRB or terrain driven during overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Temperatures warming
to slightly above seasonal averages. A 10-20% chance of showers or
thunderstorms from Grand Canyon northward this afternoon, dry this
weekend. Minimum RH dropping to 10-20%. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph each day.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warm. Daytime temperatures
slightly above seasonal averages. Min RH 10-15% each day. Winds
ranging from SW-NW 10-15 mph Monday and Tuesday, then SW 10-20 mph
with gusts to 25 mph Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff