197
FXUS65 KFGZ 230519
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1019 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected this weekend and into next week as a strong ridge of
high pressure builds into Arizona.

&&

.UPDATE...Clouds that moved in this afternoon are making a quick
exit to the east and into New Mexico this evening. Meanwhile some
higher clouds are pushing down from the north. Coverage will be
sparse and should have little to no impact to how well we radiate
tonight across the region. Light winds are expected to continue
with light west to southwest winds on Sunday. A cool night across
the region with near to slightly above normal temperatures.
Coldest spots will drop into the teens with much of the area into
the 20s to 30s overnight. Daytime highs will be 5-20 degrees
above normal on Sunday with most areas well into the 60s-70s.
Forecast looks good and no big updates needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /452 PM MST/...It`s a pleasant afternoon across the region, with
temperatures in the 50s and 60s under mostly sunny skies. This
will be the trend over the next several days as high pressure
builds over the region through at least mid week. Expect high
temperatures 15-20 degrees above seasonal averages, and approaching
records in a few places especially Monday and Tuesday. Later in
the week, a shortwave will move over the ridge and then southward
toward the four corners sometime late Wednesday or Thursday. This
should be a dry disturbance, but depending on the track it could
push some slightly cooler air westward into our area Thursday,
along with gusty easterly winds. Confidence in this occurring is
still low, so the official forecast only indicates a couple
degrees of cooling. The next low pressure system is currently
shown by most ensemble members to approach the state around next
Saturday, though it appears weak and not very cold. A 20% chance
of precipitation is in the latest forecast for next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 23/06Z through Monday 24/06Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Light and variable most places
overnight with some downsloping NE winds 10-15kts at KSEZ.
Becoming SW 10kts Sunday, light and variable or terrain driven
Sunday night.

OUTLOOK...Monday 24/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...VFR conditions,
no precipitation expected. Light and variable or terrain driven
Sunday night, Monday and Monday night. N-NW 10kts Tuesday, NE
10kts off the Rim Tuesday night, light and variable elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warm and dry. Variable winds
less than 10 mph. Minimum relative humidity below 20 percent.

Tuesday through Thursday...Continued warm and dry, but turning a bit
cooler Thursday. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph Tuesday, turning north
to northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Minimum relative humidity below
15 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/JJ
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff