158
FXUS65 KFGZ 121656
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
955 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A few light snow showers could develop this afternoon
across the White Mountains and Eastern Mogollon Rim, dry elsewhere.
More widespread rain and snow showers are forecast Thursday through
early Saturday, from a stronger low pressure system pushing in from
the Pacific. Gusty winds look to join the heaviest precipitation
throughout Friday. Drier and warmer conditions return late this
weekend and into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The CWA is basically drying from west to east today
behind the windy trough from Monday and Tuesday. Much of the area
has already dipped into single digit dew points, but some remnant
moisture over the deserts and extending up through Show Low and St
Johns may lead to some upslope snow showers this afternoon. This
would primarily be over the southern facing slopes of the eastern
Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains, with little impact.

For tonight, a flat ridge moves across the state should make for a
quiet and cool night. By early Thursday, an impressive Pacific plume
event impinges the central and then the southern California coast.
This moisture then moves into Arizona Thursday afternoon, choked off
a bit by the coastal range, but also prolonged through Friday as a
longer-wave trough takes it`s time moving through the Southwest.

The first onset of moisture is a warm advection event, but since it
arrives with a cold and dry air mass in place, we expect snow levels
to be lower than 500 mb hghts would otherwise suggest. The warmest
air passes through late Thursday night and the higher elevations may
not ever see any rain mix in.

On Friday, a cold trailing trough acts on the moisture that is now
already in place, for an active and snowy day in the high country.
We expect snow amounts to rise in the afternoon package and the
potential is there for headline issuance.

For now through, no short term updates are needed.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 12/12Z through Thursday 13/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN with local MVFR conditions
south of a KINW-KSJN line between 15Z-01Z. SW-W winds 10-20 kts
gusting 20-30 kts. Strongest winds along and northeast of a KGCN-
KFLG-KSOW line. Winds become less than 10 kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/12Z through Saturday 15/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected between 06Z-12Z Thursday. After 12Z Thursday,
expect areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in rain/snow showers,
continuing through Friday. S winds 10-20 kts gusting 30 kts on
Thursday, strengthening Thursday night and Friday to 15-25 kts
with gusts 30-40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Below normal temperatures
expected both days. A chance of snow showers for this afternoon and
evening, mainly along the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. More
widespread rain and snow chances on Thursday. Westerly winds 10-20
mph today, becoming light overnight. Southerly winds 10-20 mph
gusting 25-30 mph on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Widespread rain and snow expected Friday
through Saturday morning, with the heaviest precipitation on Friday.
Snow accumulation likely above about 6000-7000 feet with widespread
wetting rains elsewhere. Southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph
on Friday. West to northwest winds 10-20 mph on Saturday, becoming
lighter on Sunday. Warm and drier conditions return for Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff