881
FXUS65 KFGZ 062104
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
204 PM MST Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and mainly dry conditions will continue into
next week. Expect generally light winds through the weekend,
gradually increasing next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak flow pattern aloft will remain over Arizona
into Wednesday. During this period high pressure in the subtropics
will start out over northern Mexico but then gradually migrate
westward to off the Baja California coast. Arizona will remain on
the northern fringes on the main high center with a series of
weak shortwave troughs and ridges impacting our area. The result
of this pattern is that limited moisture will linger and combine
with daytime heating to produce slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms, mainly near the Utah and New Mexico borders. Away
from the border area it will be a bit more stable with mountain
areas seeing fair weather cumulus buildups nearly every day.
Otherwise, look for generally light breezes at 5 to 15 mph with
occasional higher gusts and daytime temperatures around 5 degrees
above seasonal averages.

Beyond Wednesday...Models show a longwave trough developing along
the west coast. The west coast trough in combination with the
subtropical high to the south will strengthen pressure gradients
for gusty southwest winds. In addition, the stronger southwest flow
will sweep out some of the lingering moisture for drier
conditions and some increase in the fire weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 06/18Z through Saturday 07/18Z...VFR conditions
expected, isolated -SHRA/-TSRA northwest of a KGCN-KPGA line this
afternoon, otherwise no precipitation expected. Winds SW-W
5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 07/18Z through Monday 09/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds SW-NW 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Temperatures warming
to slightly above seasonal averages. A 10-20% chance of showers or
thunderstorms from Grand Canyon northward this afternoon, dry this
weekend. Minimum RH dropping to 10-20%. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph each day.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warm. Daytime temperatures
slightly above seasonal averages. Min RH 10-15% each day. Winds
ranging from SW-NW 10-15 mph Monday and Tuesday, then SW 10-20 mph
with gusts to 25 mph Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff