222
FXUS65 KFGZ 122357
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
457 PM MST Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled conditions continue into Monday with another
round of showers and thunderstorms lasting into Tuesday morning.
Things dry out from Tuesday night through the end of the week,
with high temperatures dropping to 5-10 degrees below mid October
averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Subtropical moisture has made for an active day
across the southern half of the state, while in most of our CWA
some drier air has moved in making for a relatively nice and quiet
day, the exception being over the White Mountains where cloud
cover and some light showers have persisted throughout the day.

Starting tonight, the subtropical moisture gets drawn back north
as an early season closed Low off the West Coast approaches the
area. This will lead to more showers and thunderstorms across the
region starting Monday morning and lasting into midday Tuesday,
with the better chances being over the southern half of our CWA.
Main concern is more rain over saturated soil so flash flooding or
some small stream flooding will be a concern again. Pressure
gradient will also increase between the approaching low and a
ridge of high pressure over Texas so expect southwesterly wind to
pick up over the next couple days, increasing to 15-25 mph with
gusts 30-35 mph.

As the closed Low approaches on Tuesday the winds aloft change a
bit more westerly and begins to draw in some drier air. Heights
with this cold core Low are pretty low at around 540-545dm over
the SF Bay Area. It weakens as it approaches southern California
and hooks northeast onshore with heights warming to 555-565dm at
the core but still brings some cooler air to our area as it
transits northeast into the Great Basin. It will take whats left
of its moisture northeast with it, clipping far northwestern
Arizona with some showers, however the rest of the area for now
looks to stay dry.

For the remainder of the week, northwesterly flow aloft takes over
behind the departing Low which will keep things dry over the
region with temperatures continuing 5-10 degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 13/00Z through Tuesday 14/00Z...Cloud cover
with embedded showers and thunderstorms will gradually spread
across the area from the south bringing MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities after 06Z at high terrain TAF sites. After 18Z,
thunderstorms coverage will increase, with the best chances for
storms east of a line from KPAN to KRQE. Otherwise, expect
south-southwest winds 10-20kts gusting 20-30kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 14/00Z through Thursday 16/00Z...Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms Monday 00Z through 06Z Tuesday, with the
greatest storm coverage along and east of a line from KPAN-KRQE.
Mostly VFR conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds SW 10-20kts,
with gusts to 30kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms will
remain in the area on Monday into Tuesday morning before a drying
trend commences.  Winds pick up on Monday to SW 15-25 mph with gusts
to 30-35 mph and remain elevated through Tuesday. Gusty and erratic
winds can be expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with no precipitation
expected. It will be cool with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below
mid October averages. Winds SW-W 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph
Wednesday, W-NW 5-15 mph on Thursday and Friday. Min RH`s 30-55%
Wednesday, 25-45% Thursday, 25-35% Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff