186
FXUS65 KFGZ 012315
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 PM MST Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue into
Thursday, before drying and warming into the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection has formed over higher terrain features
this afternoon, generating robust outflow movement to the southwest.
These outflows should light up Yavapai County within the next few
hours, with the northern zones clearing and stabilizing into the
evening.

Our overall pattern remains the same, southerly flow and easterly
outflows will continue to raise dew points and PW, peaking during
the day Wednesday. At the same time, a closed low off the central
California coast will eject eastward, injecting some dynamics into
the situation by Wednesday afternoon. Should be an active day as a
result, with isolated severe and some storms approaching Flash Flood
guidance for the region.

Behind this ejecting low, much drier and stable air moves in for
Thursday and especially Friday, with a rapid decrease in activity.
Building hghts aloft bring a warming trend for the holiday weekend
and into next week. Whether or not these thunderstorms will return
is the question, low confidence at this time that any significant
activity will redevelop.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 02/00Z through Thursday 03/00Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA
continues east of a KGCN-KFLG-KJTC line through 03Z, with some
lingering activity near KINW through 07Z. SCT TSRA/SHRA then
redevelops after 18Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty outflow winds
will be the primary hazard. MVFR VIS possible in HZ/FU near KRQE
from a nearby wildfire.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 03/00Z through Saturday 05/00Z...ISO-SCT
TSRA/SHRA possible Thursday afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions and
gusty outflow winds will be the primary hazard. MVFR VIS possible in
HZ/FU near KRQE from a nearby wildfire. Otherwise, VFR conditions
with SW winds 5-10 kts on Thursday, becoming W/SW 10-15 kts on
Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms each day. Brief downpours, hail, and cloud
to ground lightning are all concerns. Erratic winds with gusts 40-50
mph possible in and around thunderstorms. Outside of storms, expect
southwesterly winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Wednesday and
Thursday. Daytime high temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees below
average each day.

Friday through Sunday...Moisture quickly clears out with little to
no precipitation expected. SW-W winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph
each day. Warming trend with temperatures returning near average by
Sunday. Much drier with minimum RH 10-25% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff