422
FXUS65 KFGZ 031702
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1002 AM MST Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue through much of the
week. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms return
near the middle of the week over the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to build across southern
Arizona today, remaining over the area through at least Monday. Very
dry air and hot temperatures will be the main story of the next
couple of days with occasional breezes. Southwest winds will
generally be around 10-20 mph each day but a shortwave looks to
rotate around the top of the high and bring some gustier winds on
Monday. Afternoon humidities will be in the single digits across
much of the region, keeping us with near-critical fire weather
concerns. With higher winds expected on Monday,near-crititcal to
critical fire weather will be a big concern and headlines may be
needed. Make sure to obey all fire restrictions and avoid anything
that can cause a spark as conditions will be very dry, much more
like June than August.

The high shifts to the east and over New Mexico as we go through the
middle of the week. This may help to advect some moisture into the
region but whether or not we will be able to see much needed storms
remains to be seen. Still a low confidence forecast as the strength
of the high may inhibit storm initiation. The higher terrain has the
best chances of seeing any activity but even that looks limited at
best.

One thing that does seem certain is the heat will continue and
become more pronounced, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. Heat
headlines at the Grand Canyon will likely be extended through the
week. With the increasing heat and the addition of some moisture
(though it may be meager) the lower elevations of Yavapai County may
see some of the hottest conditions of the summer and headlines may
need to be considered for Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 03/18Z through Monday 04/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, outside of occasional MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA
line in HZ/FU. Winds W/SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts before 03Z,
then becoming VRB 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 04/18Z through Wednesday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, outside of occasional MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA
line in HZ/FU. Daytime winds SW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on
Monday, subsiding to 10-15 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Hot, dry, and occasionally windy
conditions continue with near-critical fire weather each day.
Minimum RH values 5-15% each day. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with
gusts 20-30 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on
Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and mostly dry conditions expected.
Slight increase in moisture will raise minimum RH values to around
10-20% each day. Slight chances for showers or thunderstorms over
the higher terrain each afternoon. The Kaibab Plateau is likely to
remain dry. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day.
ISO -SHRA/TS along the higher terrain on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for Azz006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff