398
FXUS65 KFGZ 011150
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
450 AM MST Tue Sep 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Drier and slightly breezy conditions through
Thursday, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon/evening. Precipitation chances increase again beginning
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...This morning...The shortwave trough spurring
activity in northwest Arizona has propagated well to our
northeast, and the last bit of convective activity is quickly
losing intensity early this morning under subsidence. Expect
clearing skies with slightly chillier morning lows than previous
days.

Today through Thursday...The large west coast trough continues to
deepen and bring stronger southwest flow across northern AZ. This
will introduce drier air with PW falling to the 40th-60th percentile
for early September. There is still enough moisture for some
convective activity, but just isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon/evening. The troughing will also bring
noticeably breezier daytime winds, with gusts up to 30 mph strongest
in northwest AZ. Also expect daytime temperatures a few degrees
below normal each day. Overall expect a reprieve from the recently
active late monsoon conditions.

Friday through Monday...The forecast uncertainty ramps up
considerably this weekend. The trough looks to gradually back off
through this period. This would open the door for the flow turn more
southerly and moisture to stream back in, first to White Mountains
and then to most of northern AZ. The most uncertain factor during
this period is a potential tropical system moving off the coast of
the Baja Peninsula, which could impact the magnitude of moisture.
The ensemble consensus is for the moisture to return, with the LREF
mean PW climbing back above the 90th percentile by Saturday. The
forecast maintains a 30-60% chance of precipitation each day, higher
in the White Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 01/12Z through Wednesday 02/12Z...VFR conditions
expected. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA returns from 19-03Z. Gusty/erratic
winds possible near storms. Winds are light and VRB or terrain
driven through 18Z, becoming SW 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts. Winds
return to light and VRB or terrain driven after 03Z.


OUTLOOK...Wednesday 02/12Z through Friday 04/12Z...VFR conditions
expected. Winds are SW 10-20 kts each afternoon, light and
VRB or terrain driven each night. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA each
afternoon, with main impacts being gusty/erratic winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Drier and breezy. Isolated
shower and thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon/evening.
Winds are southwest 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph each day,
strongest in northwest AZ. Daytime highs slightly below normal.
Minimum RH is 30-50% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Increasing moisture. Continued isolated
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with coverage increasing on
Friday and Saturday. Best chances will be seen near the White
Mountains each day. Winds are southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30
mph on Thursday and Friday, then south through southwest 5-15 mph on
Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff