118
FXUS65 KFGZ 152309
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
409 PM MST Wed Jul 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain over the area through
the coming week with daily storm chances, along with the risk for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding. With the added moisture,
temperatures will trend toward normal and even dropping below
normal by late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona will remain in an active monsoon
pattern as the general flow remains favorable for the continued
movement of monsoon moisture to our area.

For Today and tonight...The arrival of and inverted trough over
the southwest United States will place northern Arizona under a
weak northeast to southwest steering flow aloft. Monsoon moisture
has become entrenched across all of northern Arizona but with
deepest moisture stationed along and south of the Mogollon Rim. As
a result, almost any location could see a shower or thunderstorm
over the next 24 hours. The odds at any single location receiving
a shower or thunderstorm will 40-60% percent for this afternoon
through tonight. As usual, the higher terrain locations will get
hit first with storms which will then move into the lower
elevations from the afternoon into the evening. Isolated
thunderstorms will continue through the night as outflow
boundaries running across the area from far away as New Mexico and
Colorado encounter any remaining pockets of instability. The
highest CAPE values will be south of the Mogollon Rim where
pockets of 200-600 J/kg will exist. Isolated storm will be capable
of producing flash flooding, wind gust 30-40 mph and hail up to
around nickle size. From the Mogollon Rim northward CAPE values of
100-200 J/kg will be the norm with garden variety thunderstorms
anticipated capable of producing locally heavy downpours and small
hail but with a limited flash flood threat. As result of the
deeper moisture south of the Mogollon Rim there is a Flash Flood
Watch in effect through 11 PM this evening for Gila and Yavapai
counties.

For Thursday and Friday...The same pattern will remain in place
with flow generally from northeast to southwest which will be the
primary tendency of storm motion. Moisture in the low levels will
remain ample due to low-level flow from over the Gulf of
California/northwest Mexico and daily recycling of rainfall due to
daytime evaporation. The interesting aspect of this pattern will
continue to be that there will be the typical afternoon
development of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain
followed by storm outflow in the evening from over New Mexico then
later in the night from over Colorado. This will likely result in
continued chances for showers and storms through the overnight
periods.

The weekend and beyond...High pressure becomes reestablished over
a favorable position to the north and east of Arizona for active
monsoon weather continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 16/00Z through Friday 17/00Z...Mostly VFR
conditions forecast, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier
-SHRA/TSRA. Scattered showers/storms will persist through the
 forecast period, becoming more widespread after 18Z.
 Gusty/erratic winds likely from outflows, with variable winds
 generally 10 kts or less otherwise.

OUTLOOK...Friday 17/00Z through Sunday 19/00Z...VFR conditions
expected through much of the period, but brief MVFR conditions
possible in heavier -SHRA/-TSRA. Greatest coverage for
showers/storms will be between 18Z-03Z each day, with isolated
activity forecast overnight. Gusty/erratic outflow winds possible,
with variable winds 10 kts or less expected otherwise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with the greatest over the higher terrain in the
afternoon. Some activity may last into the overnight hours. Isolated
flash flooding and gusty outflow winds possible with any stronger
storm. Outside of storm activity, winds south through west 5-15 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with the best chances over the higher
terrain where a widespread wetting rain is expected over this
period. Downpours and gusty outflow winds possible with any stronger
storm. Outside of storm activity, winds south through west 5-15
mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ008-018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Zanker

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff