653
FXUS65 KFGZ 301726
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1026 AM MST Sat May 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and lighter winds are expected
for the weekend and into next week. Dry conditions remain as well,
before chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase
near the middle of next week, especially across eastern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Saturday through Monday...The upper-level low over
the west the last few days begins to lift northward today. Heights
begin to rise once again over Arizona as a ridge begins to gradually
build over the southern Plains. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures
ensue as a result for the weekend and into early next week. Lighter
winds also look to return, aside from some typical afternoon breezes
over the higher terrain.

Tuesday through Friday...Mild temperatures and light winds look to
remain in store for much of the coming week with the ridge continuing
to build. However, ensemble guidance continues to signal towards
an increase in PWATs near the middle of next week, as moisture is
advected into Arizona from the gulf to the east of Mexico.

Given the flow regime, the greatest chances for showers and
thunderstorms will largely be over eastern Arizona, with the White
Mountains being most likely. Model soundings show a fairly dry
sub- cloud layer, thus much of the activity looks to initially be
high- based. Therefor, widespread wetting rains do no look likely
at this time. The main threat with any storms that do develop look
to mainly be gusty winds and lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 30/18Z through Sunday 31/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts through 03Z, then light and VRB overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 31/18Z through Tuesday 02/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds S-W 5-10 kts on Sunday, increasing to 5-15 kts on Monday.
Winds are light and VRB during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry conditions with warming
temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, with minimum
afternoon RH

Monday through Wednesday...Continued warm and mainly dry conditions.
Slight chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms starting by
Tuesday in the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Winds southwest 5-
15 mph on Monday, becoming southwest through southeast on Tuesday,
then southwest again on Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on
Monday, rising to 10-20% by Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff