749
FXUS65 KFGZ 152031
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
131 PM MST Sat Aug 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, along
with warming temperatures are expected through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough remained centered off the California coast
with high pressure centered over Arkansas/Louisiana Saturday
afternoon. The southerly flow between these two pressure systems
continued to pull monsoon moisture northward but with the slight
westward shift of the high center over the past 24 hours the bulk
of the deeper moisture is being directed up the Lower Colorado
Valley into southern Nevada. The nudging of the high center
toward Arizona has also brought some subsidence aloft with a
capping/stabilizing layer in the mid-levels.

For tonight...A few showers and thunderstorms could linger into
the early evening hours but after that we are anticipating a
complete shutdown as subsidence and further stabilization occurs.

From Sunday into Tuesday...The high pressure center gradually
builds from over the southern United States to over Arizona.
Monsoon moisture will remain at the lower limits for activity for
most of the area as well as a capping layer aloft adding further
stabilization. As a result, most of northern Arizona will see only
isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms
through the period. The exception, moisture values will remain
just high enough over the high terrain of far eastern Arizona for
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily the White
Mountains region. Otherwise, look for warmer temperatures and
light winds under the influence of the building high.

Looking further out...It appears active monsoon weather will
be on the increase as the high pressure center finds it`s way to
the Four Corners region, opening the door to increasing monsoon
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 15/18Z through Sunday 16/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible 19Z-03Z, mainly along/west of a KGCN-KFLG-
KJTC line. Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions possible near
storms. Otherwise, winds W/SW 5-10 kts becoming light and VRB after
02Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA each day 19Z-03Z, mainly over the higher terrain.
Higher coverage of storms INVOF the White Mountains on Monday
afternoon. Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions possible near
storms. Otherwise, winds VRB at 10 kts or less through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Gradually turning warmer.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly over the higher
terrain. Coverage of storms increases over the White Mountains and
eastern Mogollon Rim on Monday. Outside of storms, winds are
generally light and variable at 10 mph or less.

Tuesday through Thursday...Continued warmer temperatures. Isolated
showers in the White Mountains on Tuesday, with coverage increasing
and spreading westward on Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of storms,
winds are generally southwest through west 5-10 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff