867
FXUS65 KFGZ 231721
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1021 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and continued dry conditions are
expected this weekend and into next week as a strong ridge of
high pressure builds into Arizona. Unsettled weather looks to
potentially make a return by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Quiet weather continues this weekend. Highs will be
10-15 degrees above normal today and even warmer for Monday and
Tuesday. No forecast updates were needed this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /341 AM MST/...A strong ridge of high pressure builds
into Arizona to kick of the week. As a result, well-above normal
high temperatures are expected across northern Arizona. Temperatures
look to peak on Monday and Tuesday, with highs around 75-90 deg F
across the lower elevations and 55-70 deg F across the higher
terrain (nearly 15-20 degrees above normal). Slightly cooler, but
still above normal, temperatures return by mid-week as the ridge
flattens and more zonal flow sets in briefly on Wednesday.

Another more amplified ridge looks to set up over Arizona near the
end of the week as a strong upper-level low drops southward off the
California Coast. This low looks to eject of the Pacific by the
weekend, potentially bring a round of precipitation to Arizona as
early as Saturday. However, given the current track, plenty of
warm air looks to be in place with this system. Thus, as of now,
this mostly looks like a rain event. Only time will tell as model
solutions evolve and the details become a bit more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 23/18Z through Monday 24/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions and light winds.

OUTLOOK...Monday 24/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions and light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Look for warm and dry weather
with variable winds less than 10 mph, trending W-SW over higher
terrain each afternoon. Minimum relative humidity forecast to fall
near or below 15 percent both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry conditions will continue,
but turning a bit cooler Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds 5
to 15 mph on Tuesday, turning north to northeast Wednesday and
easterly Thursday. Minimum relative humidity is expected to fall
below 15 percent each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/Humphreys
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff