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FXUS65 KFGZ 092304
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
404 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through much of
next week. A colder and more unsettled pattern, with chances for
rain and high elevations snow showers, arrives for Friday and into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A high amplitude ridge will gradually meander
eastward over the next few days, peaking over our area on Monday or
Tuesday. This ridge will send daytime temperatures to at least 5-10
degrees above normal for a few days. Localized areas may see daily
records set as they peak to near 15 degrees above normal. Some
deeper valley locations may not see as big of a response, due to
inversions under the ridge.

For the second half of the week, the pattern begins to break down as
a strong and increasingly progressive trough forms over the eastern
Pacific. Models have converged on a Friday/Saturday time frame, but
still differ with regard to speed and timing. The more progressive
solutions are colder, but drier. Conversely, the slower solutions
are wetter, but warmer. This brings us to a higher confidence for
cooler, wetter and windy weather, but a low confidence for potential
snowfall. Right now, 6 hour NBM probabilities for more than one inch
of snow have fallen below 20 percent, but are confined to a 24 hour
period from Friday morning to Saturday morning. More details as we
head into the start of the work week.

Beyond this, we still may see a longer wave trough forming within
the 8-14 day period, but models spread is impressive and lends to
low confidence at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/00Z through Tuesday 11/00Z...VFR conditions
expected. Areas of FU/HZ possible from prescribed burns. Light
north through east winds forecast through much of the period.
However, N-NE winds 5-15 kts possible between 04Z-16Z along and
south of the Mogollon Rim.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/00Z through Thursday 13/00Z...VFR conditions
expected. Light and variable winds forecast for Tuesday, becoming
W-SW on Wednesday 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry conditions with
temperatures about 10 degrees above average. Winds light and
variable or terrain driven. Minimum afternoon RH between 10-20%.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry with above average temperatures
through Thursday. On Friday, a pattern change arrives, temperatures
dropping to 10 degrees below average. Precipitation also moves in,
mainly in the form of rain, with snow falling above 8,000-8,500 ft.
Winds SW-W at 10 mph or less on Wednesday, SW 10-20 mph on Thursday,
SW 10-25 mph on Friday. Minimum RH 15-25% Wednesday and Thursday,
rising to 30-35% deserts, 45-60% mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff