981
FXUS65 KFGZ 142318
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
418 PM MST Mon Sep 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...An active pattern will remain in place through the end
of the week. Greatest coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be
during the afternoon and early evening hours each day, but we
cannot rule out the potential for overnight activity. Otherwise,
expect seasonable daytime highs and breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will remain over our region for the
next several days, with precipitable water values above the 90th
percentile through at least Wednesday, and approaching the 99th
percentile in eastern Arizona late Tuesday through late Wednesday.
As of 130 PM, most of the storm activity today has been in Navajo
and Apache counties, with a few strong storms and some locally
heavy rainfall/flash flooding. Drier air and a capping inversion
have limited storm development farther west in Yavapai/Coconino
counties so far and much of the hi-res guidance suggests this will
continue to be the case through this evening. Later tonight
through Tuesday morning - there is a chance that activity forming
in northern Mexico and southeast Arizona could move into east
central Arizona mainly east of I-17. Tuesday afternoon - looking
active again over the eastern half of the state, with heavy
rainfall/flash flooding the main threat. Hi-res models show
activity a bit farther west that we have seen so far today, back
to the US89/I-17 corridor. Tuesday night through Wednesday -
models have been fairly consistent for a couple of days in showing
a disturbance moving northward along the Gulf of California up
into Arizona. This may bring a better chance of overnight storms
late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, with a potential for heavy
rainfall. THe 12Z HREF is showing a moderate signal for heavy
rainfall early Wednesday morning south of I-40. This threat should
spread northward through the day Wednesday and into Wednesday
night. Moisture remains over the region Thursday with 30-60% PoPs
continuing. By the end of the week and weekend, troughing passing
by to the north may introduce enough westerly flow and drying to
lower storm chances to less than 20-30%.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 15/00Z through Wednesday 16/00Z...Expect patchy
ceilings 3-6 kft AGL over the next 24 hours. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA
overnight periods with scattered SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z
producing occasional MVFR conditions. Daytime winds outside of
gusty thunderstorms/outflows, south to southwest at 5-15 kts
gusting to near 25 kts. Winds light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 16/00Z through Friday 18/00Z...Expect patchy
ceilings at 4-7 kft AGL. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA mainly
between 18Z-03Z each day with generally isolated -SHRA/-TSRA the
remainder of the time. Occasional MVFR conditions anticipated.
Daytime winds outside of thunderstorms/outflows, south to
southwest at 5-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts. Winds light and variable
overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop Tuesday
afternoon, primarily along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Tuesday
night, storm activity may increase south of the Mogollon Rim due to
storms moving into the area from Maricopa County. More widespread
monsoonal activity is forecast on Wednesday as deeper monsoon
moisture moves into the region. Outside of erratic winds near
storms, expect winds S-SW 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph each day.
Temperatures will remain near normal.

Thursday through Saturday...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue
each day. Daily storm coverage will be dependent on activity from
the previous day and early morning cloud cover. Daytime winds SW 10-
20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff