275
FXUS65 KFGZ 152300
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 PM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with continued warm temperatures are
expected through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A dry trough will continue to push to the south and
east through the state this afternoon. Other than some clouds and a
slight dip in temperatures, we won`t see much from this trough.

The strong ridge across the eastern Pacific will build back across
the Desert Southwest over the next several days and we will continue
to see warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions.

Overall, expect daytime highs to remain around 10-20 degrees above
normal through Thursday, then 15-25 degrees above normal for Friday
into the weekend. Nighttime lows will be cold as dry air, light
winds, and clear skies, lead to good radiational cooling, though
they will still remain above the typical lows we see by mid/late
December.

While daytime winds will be light and variable around 5-15 mph each
day, we will see elevated winds around 10-20 mph in areas along and
downwind of terrain features at night.

The ridge starts to flatten out and push to the east towards the end
of the week. This slight shift in the pattern may allow for another
trough to approach the region by early next week. Still too far out
to have much confidence in any precipitation but there is at least a
small chance we may see something as we head towards the Christmas
holiday. Unfortunately, even if the forecast holds and we start to
see better chances for any precipitation, the temperatures look to
remain warm and it will more likely be rain vs snow. Something to
watch as we remain stuck in this warm pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 16/00Z through Wednesday 17/00Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Winds light and variable under 10 kts, except for
local northeast winds at 10-20 kts overnight along and west of
the I-17 corridor including KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 17/00Z through Friday 19/00Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Winds light and variable under 10 kts, except for
local northeast winds at 10-20 kts at night along and west of the
I-17 corridor including KSEZ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Expect daytime highs 10-20
degrees above normal each day along with dry conditions. Winds light
and variable Tuesday, W 5-15 mph Wednesday. Minimum RH values 15-30%
each afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Look for temperatures 15-25 degrees
above normal each day with dry conditions persisting. Winds light
and variable on Thursday, SW 10-20 mph on Friday and Saturday.
Minimum RH values 15-30% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff