730
FXUS65 KFGZ 262320
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure will pass north of Arizona,
bringing wind conditions today and Wednesday, along with chances
for rain and high-elevation snow showers. Drier/warmer conditions
expected to return for the second-half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Clouds continue to increase over northern
Arizona ahead of an incoming trough. Scattered rain and snow
showers are ongoing over the Kaibab Plateau, and will through the
day. Isolated coverage should gradually increase over the terrain
of far northern Arizona as well, with the greatest chances mainly
over Black Mesa and the Chuska Mountains.

Elsewhere, gusty southwest winds of 30-40 mph are expected through
the late afternoon hours. Downslope areas off the Mogollon Rim may
see gusts upwards of 50 mph. Winds should decrease later this
evening and overnight, but downslope areas and the mountain tops
will likely remain gusty through the overnight.

Wednesday...The mean trough axis moves through Utah and into Colorado
on Wednesday. Moisture tied to a band of weak frontogenetic forcing
will sag southward across northern Arizona through the day. This
should result in a period of steadier showers developing along the
Arizona/Utah border early Wednesday morning and dropping southward
through the remainder of the day. Much of the activity should be
done by Wednesday evening, however some lingering upslope showers
look possible across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
into the overnight.

Given the track of the low is well to the north, moisture will be
fairly limited with this system. Thus, the bulk of the activity and
greatest coverage will be areas north of the I-40 corridor. Even
then, total precipitation amounts will generally be a few hundredths
to a tenth a best. Upwards of 0.40-0.70 inches will be possible in
the upslope areas around the Kaibab Plateau and Chuska Mountains.
Showers do look to extend as far south as the Mogollon Rim, but
activity should be minimal. Snow levels look to also remain fairly
high, at around 9,000-10,000 feet today, then falling to around 7500
feet with the front. Thus, the majority of the area will see rain
with any accumulating snow limited to the highest elevations.

Thursday through Monday...Drier, northerly flow sets in for the
Thanksgiving Holiday. Temperatures will be a little cooler, but
still +/- 5F of where we should be for this time of year.

Thereafter, temperatures look to rise a couple of degrees each day.
Dry conditions look to prevail through much of the period, however,
guidance does continue to have a weak cut-off low rotate through
Arizona late in the weekend. Only handful of members from the global
ensemble guidance have have any precipitation, and even then, the
amounts are minimal. Thus, the current forecast maintains dry
weather, but a sprinkle or stray shower isn`t totally out of the
question near the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 27/00Z through Thursday 28/00Z...WDPSRD CIGS
from 5-10kft AGL through the period. Some MVFR CIGS with light rain
and light snow (above 7-8kft MSL) mainly north of the I-40 corridor
and especially from 12Z-20Z Wednesday. Showers more frequent INVOF
the Utah border and then shifting SE through the day Wednesday. Sfc
winds S-SW10-20g25kts overnight, then shifting to NW10-20kts AFT
about 13Z-16Z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 28/00Z through Saturday 30/00Z...Lingering areas
of MVFR due to CIGS and -SHRA/-SHSN through 04Z-06Z Thursday, mainly
over the higher terrain of Southern Navajo and Apache Counties.
Otherwise, transitioning to VFR conditions and light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Thursday...Expect showers near and
north of the Grand Canyon region today, increasing and spreading
south to the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains on Wednesday.
Southwest winds gusting up to 30 to 40 mph today, will decrease and
shift to the north on Wednesday, then to the northeast on Thursday.
Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees colder for Wednesday and
Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry weather with seasonal temperatures and
light winds is forecast during this period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff