410
FXUS65 KFGZ 050513
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1013 PM MST Fri Oct 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather will continue right through the
weekend and into early next week. Winds will remain generally
light.

&&

.UPDATE...A few clouds persist across the northland this evening
with otherwise clear skies and light winds. Strong high pressure
and record heat will continue to dominate the weather pattern.
Several more record high temperatures were set today in Flagstaff,
Payson, Prescott, Cottonwood, and Winslow. No significant forecast
updates are needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /429 PM MST/...Hot and dry weather continues across
the region this afternoon as relentless high pressure remains
centered over the state. Temperatures will top out around 15
degrees above seasonal averages this afternoon, and remain in that
territory through the weekend. Numerous record highs have been
set over the past week, with plenty more likely to fall today.
Flagstaff has already hit 84 today, breaking the record high of 83
for today, this is within 1 degree of tying the all-time October
record of 85F! A few fair weather cumulus have developed even with
surface dewpoints in the teens as boundary layer mixing has
reached around 15K feet deep.

Early next week - the high pressure system weakens and slides
toward the southeast as a weak low drifts from the west coast
toward the state. Daytime highs remain around 10 degrees above
normal but not quite the records that we have seen recently. By
Wednesday, southerly flow ahead of the low may pull enough
moisture northward for a few showers or thunderstorms, we
have included 10-20% PoPs in the latest forecasts. A bit more
uncertainty by late next week as a few ensemble members show a
trough and increased winds, while the majority continue with a
warm/dry scenario. Our forecast is dry for now, with highs 5-10
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 05/06Z through Sunday 06/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected with localized MVFR possible in FU/HZ near
area fires. Light winds overnight becoming NW-NE 5-15 kts after
16Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 06/06Z through Tuesday 08/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected with localized MVFR possible in FU/HZ near
area fires. Winds E-NE 5-15 kts on Sunday, becoming more S-SW on
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Sunday...Very warm and dry
conditions continue. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming
northwest through northeast on Saturday and Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry through Tuesday, with a
slight chance of showers on Wednesday as a weak low moves into the
region. Daytime winds generally south to southwest 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/JJ
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff