386
FXUS65 KFGZ 221023
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 AM MST Wed Jul 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Deep monsoonal moisture will remain over the area
today, with a decrease later in the week. With this moisture
comes the daily threat of thunderstorms, along with the risk for
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Daytime temperatures
will remain at or below normal through Thursday, with hotter
temperatures Friday and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper level low that moved into eastern AZ
Tuesday will continue northward reaching southern UT/CO by this
afternoon. Otherwise, deep moisture will remain over the region
today with another round of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. Storm motion will be slower today for most of the
area, with a bit higher motion toward the north along the NM line
to the east of the low. This slow storm motion will bring a
continued threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding with
storms, though the risk is a bit lower than previous days. By
Thursday, the ridge to our east will start to shift toward the
state. Although monsoon moisture will remain, precipitable water
values won`t be quite as high as we have seen over the past week,
and temperatures aloft will start to warm. These factors will lead
to less coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity, and becoming
more focused on the higher terrain. Light southerly steering flow
will also keep Yavapai and northern Gila pretty quiet without the
push of storms off the rim country that we have seen for many days
in a row. This trend continues Friday and Saturday. The ridge
becomes rather strong over Arizona as well and this will lead to
much warmer temperatures. We`re looking at highs 5-10 degrees
above normal by Friday and the weekend, and a heat warning product
may be needed for the lower elevations of Grand Canyon, with
generally moderate HeatRisk elsewhere. By early next week, most of
the guidance shifts the ridge back to the east, allowing for a
return of somewhat higher precipitable water values and cooler
temperatures aloft. Storm chances recover back to the 30-50% range
for much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 22/12Z through Thursday 23/12Z...Look for
mainly isolated -SHRA/-TSRA through 18Z. After 18Z, Another round
of SHRA/TSRA developing. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing hail, wind gusts to 45 kts and brief MVFR and IFR
conditions. Outside of storms, winds light and variable. Activity
diminishing to isolated after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/12Z through Saturday 25/12Z...Expect
SHRA/TSRA chances through the period, most numerous during the
afternoon/evening hours. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA decreasing a bit
each day and mainly focused over higher terrain. Stronger storms
will produce brief MVFR and IFR conditions, gusty winds to 40 kts
and hail. Outside of storms, surface winds light and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...A medium grade monsoon
environment continues today, then low to medium grade by Thursday.
Scattered thunderstorms are still expected each afternoon/evening,
with continued threat of localized flash flooding. Winds are
generally light through the period outside of outflow and
thunderstorm activity.

Friday through Sunday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue, though coverage will be more isolated to scattered and
focused over higher terrain. Generally light winds outside of
outflow and thunderstorm activity. Expect a strong warming trend and
minimum RH 20-35%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

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