056
FXUS65 KFGZ 082300
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 PM MST Mon Jun 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy conditions will continue through
Tuesday with areas of critical fire weather. Winds begin to
diminish by midweek, and daytime temperatures become above normal.
Slight chance for a few showers or thunderstorms by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough over the west coast this afternoon will
move eastward and pass to our north on Tuesday. The main impacts
over our region through Tuesday will be gusty southwest to west
winds and low humidity bringing critical fire weather. Gusts today
have been in the 30-35 mph range, with some 35-45 mph gusts
forecast for Tuesday afternoon. By tonight, some limited moisture
is going to move into far eastern Arizona including the White
Mountains and possibly up to Window Rock. Isolated light showers
and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible in these areas mainly
from late this evening to the early morning hours on Tuesday,
with PoP values in the 10-20% range.

Wednesday and Thursday - heights increase as the trough moves
eastward, leading to hotter temperatures. Highs will be 5-10
degrees above normal, mid-upper 80s in the mountains and 100-105
for the lower valleys.

Friday into the weekend - latest models continue to show high
pressure developing to our southeast, allowing for some moisture
advection northward up into Arizona. Mean precipitable water from
the grand ensemble gets up to 0.75"-1.00" from about the Mogollon
Rim southward, which is in the 95th+ percentile for mid June.
Shower and thunderstorm chances have increased a bit in our latest
forecasts, in the 10-30% range. By early next week, westerly flow
looks to push the moisture farther east with lowering precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 09/00Z through Wednesday 10/00Z...VFR conditions.
SW winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts through 03Z, then becoming 5-15
kts. SW winds increase to 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts after 16Z on
Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/00Z through Friday 12/00Z...VFR conditions.
SW-W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts on Wednesday, decreasing to
10-20 kts on Thursday. Expect winds to subside to 5-15 kts each
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Warm, dry, and windy with
critical fire weather conditions through Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning
will remain in effect for most of northern Arizona through Tuesday
evening. There is a slight chance of a dry thunderstorm near the
White Mountains this afternoon. Winds are southwest at 15-25 mph
with gusts 30-40 mph Monday and Tuesday, becoming southwest/west 10-
15 mph gusting 20-30 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH is 5-15% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Warm and dry on Thursday, then slight
chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Winds
are southwest/west 10-15 mph Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH is 5-
15% Thursday, increasing to 10-20% on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff