407
FXUS65 KFGZ 081127
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
427 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through the coming
weekend and much of next week. A more unsettled pattern with
chances for precipitation may return by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is forecast to remain over the
southwest US through at least the middle of next week, with mean
500 mb heights reaching close to 590 dam at times. This would be
in the 95th+ percentile for this time of year and result in
daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Mostly clear skies
are forecast, with some increase in clouds by mid week. Winds
will turn more northerly to northeasterly through Sunday, locally
gusty at times south of the Mogollon Rim especially during
overnight periods. Late next week, latest model data continues to
indicate a pattern change with a trough moving onto the west
coast. There remains significant model spread, especially
regarding the timing and intensity of the trough over our area.
Timing of the arrival ranges from Friday all the way to late next
weekend, so confidence in impacts remains quite low. For now,
taking a blended approach results in precipitation chances of
20-40% by Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 08/12Z through Sunday 09/12Z...VFR conditions
expected, with localized areas of FU/HZ possible from prescribed
burns. Winds are generally variable at 10 kts or less through the
forecast period, but breezy conditions are expected downwind of
the terrain after 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/12Z through Tuesday 11/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast to continue. Localized areas of FU/HZ may persist from
prescribed burns. Light and variable winds expected for much of
the area through the period, but breezy conditions are expected
downwind of the terrain during the late night/early morning hours
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Warm and dry conditions are
forecast. Winds will be generally from the north at 10 mph or less
today, then from the north through east at 10 mph or less on Sunday.
Minimum afternoon RH between 15-25% each day.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue.
Winds light at 10 mph or less and mainly terrain driven on Monday
and Tuesday. Winds becoming more westerly at 5-15 mph on Wednesday.
Minimum RH 10-20% on Monday and Tuesday with an increasing RH trend
starting Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

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