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FXUS65 KFGZ 020519
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1019 PM MST Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions develop over the weekend
and into at least early next week. Moisture may return by the middle
or end of next week, but confidence in this scenario is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large ridge will retrograde over the weekend and
effectively shut off any additional moisture for Arizona. Lingering
boundary moisture is mixing out today and will continue to mix out
tomorrow. Any lingering convection will be limited to Apache County
by by Saturday afternoon.

Even if some moisture stuck around, the strength of this ridge will
cap most convection, so either way, it`s going to be dry and hot.
Passing s/wvs over the top of the ridge, well to our north, will
also keep things breezy, especially north of I-40 and up across the
Kaibab Plateau. This is an unfortunate set up for fire weather and
conditions will continue to worsen.

By the middle of next week, the ridge may move back into New Mexico
or even amplify over the Four Corners. This may allow a surge to
develop, with convection moving back into southern Arizona. This is
not a sure thing and even if we opened the door for more moisture,
we may still be capped. Confidence is low and the return of PoPs
will be downplayed for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 02/06Z through Sunday 03/06Z...VFR conditions
outside of occasional MVFR criteria near and north of a KGCN-KPGA
line from smoke. Winds variable less than 10 kts the remainder of
the night, redeveloping by 17Z becoming southwest at 10-20 kts
gusting to 25 kts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon south of a KSOW-KSJN line.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 03/06Z through Tuesday 05/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions outside of occasional MVFR criteria near and north of
a KGCN-KPGA line from smoke. Winds west to southwest at 5-15 kts
gusting to 20 kts on Sunday becoming southwest at 10-20 kts
gusting to 25 kts on Monday. Light nighttime winds less than 10
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Expect hot and mainly dry
conditions, outside of a slight chance for thunderstorms near the
White Mountains on Saturday. Daytime southwest winds 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-30 mph on Saturday, becoming west/southwest 10-15 mph on
Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% on Saturday, falling to 5-10%
on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot and mainly dry conditions. Slight
chance for thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Wind southwest 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph for each
afternoon. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Monday, rising to 10-20%
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff