689
FXUS65 KFGZ 251035
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
335 AM MST Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer, dry, and breezy conditions set in through
this weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms look to return
near the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure centered near the Bay Area this morning
will continue to push unusually dry air into our region today
through the weekend. Our 11 AM sounding Thursday measured record
low precipitable water for this time of year, so once again we are
not expecting any shower activity today or Saturday in the
forecast area. In addition, a shortwave moving around the
southeast side of the low will act to tighten pressure gradients
today and Saturday, leading to increased southwest winds. Gusts
are forecast to be highest on Saturday, reaching 25-35 mph
especially in Coconino County. By Sunday, the impressive ridge
affecting the eastern 2/3 of the country will start expanding
westward. This will cause winds to decrease and temperatures to
warm up through Monday, with triple digit heat below around 4000
feet elevation. In addition, the flow around the expanding ridge
should push some increased moisture into far eastern Arizona
possibly as early as Sunday afternoon, then a bit farther
northwest by Monday with shower and thunderstorm chances returning
to the forecast. Convection is likely to be high-based through at
least Tuesday especially central and western areas, with gusty
winds but mostly light rainfall. An easterly wave shown in much of
the model guidance moving into our areas from the southeast could
help inject some higher moisture values mid to late week and
bring higher shower and thunderstorm chances. There is still some
uncertainty in this scenario as not all ensemble members are on
board, especially the EC so we will have to wait and see.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 25/12Z through Saturday 26/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Smoke layers and reduced visibility from just north of
KGCN to KPGA through the period, with MVFR visibility possible at
KPGA this afternoon. Winds becoming southwest at 10-15 kts
gusting to 20-30 kts after 18Z. Light winds less than 10 kts after
03Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 26/12Z through Monday 28/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Smoke layers and reduced visibility from just north of
KGCN to KPGA through the period. Daytime southwest winds at 10-20
kts gusting to 25-30 kts on Saturday, diminishing to 5-15 kts
gusting to 20-25 kts Sunday. Nighttime winds generally less than
10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Warm and dry, with locally
windy conditions. Areas of near critical fire weather conditions
each afternoon, especially Saturday and especially over Coconino
County. Daytime winds southwest 10 to 20 mph each day, with
gusts from 25 to 35 mph, especially on Saturday. Minimum relative
humidity values 5 to 15 percent.

Sunday through Tuesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
slowly spreading back northwest Monday and Tuesday. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph on Sunday, decreasing a bit Monday
and Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity values 5 to 15 percent on
Sunday, 10 to 20 percent Monday and 15 to 40 percent on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff