410
FXUS65 KFGZ 081649
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
949 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and warming temperatures are expected
through the end of this week and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...As mentioned below, the upper-level trough is now centered
over New Mexico. This pattern has left very minimal precipitation activity
across the AZ/NM border that will continue to dwindle throughout
the rest of the afternoon. For the rest of northern Arizona,
mostly sunny skies, light north-northwest winds and chilly
temperatures are forecast. With the overall quiet weather, no
updates were necessary for the previous forecast package. Check
out the discussion below for more details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /355 AM MST/...Today...The upper-level low has crossed into New Mexico
as of this morning, lingering showers and clouds over eastern Arizona
will continue to dissipate as the low continue to move eastward.
A couple flurries over the higher terrain, namely the Chuska and
White Mountains, could be possible through the early afternoon,
but any amounts should be light.

Saturday through Thursday...Heights begin to rise as high pressure
builds into Arizona from the west. Dry conditions, lighter winds,
and warmer temperatures are expected for the weekend. Afternoon high
temperatures by Sunday look to climb back to near-normal for this
time of year.

Monday through Thursday...By the start of next week, a trough looks
to move into the Pacific Northwest. This flattens the ridge, leading
to a more of a quasi-zonal flow pattern over Arizona. With the
storm track largely still north of Arizona, dry conditions look to
prevail through the coming week. The only real sensible weather
looks to be a slight dip in temperatures and an increase in winds
on Tuesday as the aforementioned trough moves through the Rockies.
Temperatures quickly recover though, with afternoon highs about 5
to 10 deg F above normal by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 08/18Z through Saturday 09/18Z...VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. Isolated -SHRA/-SHSN likely
along/near the AZ/NM border through at least 21Z, with drier
conditions elsewhere. Expect N-NW winds 5-10 kts, gusting near 15
kts across higher terrain. Light and variable winds return after
00Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 09/18Z through Monday 11/18Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the outlook period. Expect variable winds,
15 kts or less, each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Mainly dry conditions with
just a few isolated snow showers along the Arizona-New Mexico border
through this morning. North to northwest winds around 5-15 mph,
becoming more westerly on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions
through Monday, cooling slightly on Tuesday. Southeast to southwest
winds around 5-15 mph through Monday, becoming southwest 10 to 20
mph with gusts up to 35 mph on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff