003
FXUS65 KFGZ 150758
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1258 AM MST Sat Aug 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, along
with warming temperatures are expected through the weekend into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday...Drier air has moved into northern
Arizona ahead of a trough. However, while coverage may tick downward
today, enough moisture looks to remain to keep at least isolated
to scattered coverage for today. Latest hi-res guidance has much
of the activity along and south/west of the Mogollon Rim. A similar
story looks to take hold on Sunday, but with the best coverage
looking to shift to eastern Arizona.

With the trough, 06Z RAP guidance has 0-6 km shear around 25-30 kts.
Therefore, a couple strong to severe storms will be possible once
again this afternoon. Large hail and gusty outflow winds will be the
primary hazards with any severe storm. PWATs south of the Mogollon
Rim remain around 0.8-1.0 inches, and 0.5-0.8 inches to the north.
Flash flooding will be possible, but given that storm motions of
around 10-15 kts and less of a threat for training storms, the
overall threat will be localized.

Outside of storms, slightly warmer, but still cool temperatures
remain over northern Arizona with less and less cloud cover expected
each day.

Monday through Friday...High pressure slowly begins to retrograde
and strengthen over the southwest through the coming week. Warming
temperatures ensue across northern Arizona as a result, with
afternoon highs returning to near-normal to slightly (~5F) above
normal.

With monsoonal moisture still in place, precipitation chances look
to still continue into the coming week. However, as the ridge
strengthens, afternoon convection will become suppressed. Therefore,
much of the activity looks to be isolated in nature, and largely
focused on the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 15/06Z through Sunday 16/06Z...VFR with MVFR
possible near heavier showers/storms. Saturday`s shower/storm
coverage will be limited to the higher terrain (i.e. Rim, White
Mountains, Kaibab Plateau and Bradshaws) with storms beginning
around 18-22Z and lasting till 03Z. Winds light and variable or
terrain driven overnight, variable 5-15kts daytime Saturday. Gusty
and erratic winds near storms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/06Z through Tuesday 18/06Z...VFR conditions,
MVFR possible near heavier storms. Chance of isolated showers/storms
over higher terrain between 18Z-03Z each afternoon. Winds SW-W
5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.
Gusty and erratic winds near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Turning warmer. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms possible each afternoon, mainly over the higher
terrain. Outside of storms, winds will generally be southwest/west 5-
10 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Continued warming temperatures. Chances
for isolated showers remain each afternoon, mainly across the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Outside of storms, winds
generally south through west winds 5-10 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff