Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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276 FXUS65 KFGZ 220330 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 830 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected through the end of the week. Slighty cooler and breezier conditions then set in for next week, along with a chance for showers. && .UPDATE...High pressure is slowly moving eastward across northern Arizona this evening with light winds and only a few high clouds passing overhead. Temperatures a slightly warmer than last evening at this time. Current forecast is on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /537 PM MST/...Today...A warm front pushes through Arizona today, leading some high clouds early this afternoon, but then gradually decreasing through the day. Highs this afternoon are running about 10 degrees above normal along and south of the Mogollon Rim. While to the north, temperatures should remain a bit cooler, but still typical for this time of year. Friday and Saturday...Warmer temperatures continue into Friday as the weak ridge of high pressure continues to move eastward. Heights begin to fall on Saturday, so a slight cool down is expected, but otherwise still mild for this time of year. Sunday through Wednesday...A storm systems ejects off the Pacific into Nevada and Utah by the start of next week. With a more northerly track, Arizona looks to remain in mainly zonal flow. Some breezier winds (especially Sunday) and cooler, more seasonable temperatures look to start off the week. The mean trough axis looks to eventually brush past Arizona, which may give us a slightly better shot at some precipitation with more favorable dynamics and flow. Latest ensemble guidance points towards the middle of the week for the best chances, but even then, amounts look to be on the lighter side. && .AVIATION...Friday 22/00Z through Saturday 23/00Z...VFR conditions persist with SCT-BKN250. Expect light winds, under 10 kts, and variable between the east and southwest. OUTLOOK...Saturday 23/00Z through Monday 25/00Z...VFR conditions continue through Saturday with variable cloud cover. Conditions worsen on Sunday with increasing cloud cover and chances for scattered -SHRA/-SHSN across Coconino County. Winds will remain light and variable on Friday, becoming southwest 15-25 kts for Saturday and Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...The dry and mild pattern continues across northern Arizona for Friday and Saturday. Expect daytime temperatures near 10 degrees above average each day with afternoon humidity below 15%. Light, terrain driven winds are forecast for Friday, followed by a return of southwest winds, 15 to 30 mph on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture increases throughout the period with cooler, near average temperatures each day. Scattered rain and snow showers are forecast each day with greatest chances along and north of I-40. Gustier southwest winds, 20 to 35 mph, are likely on Sunday, becoming lighter, 10 to 20 mph, for Monday and Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MAS/Humphreys AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff