050
FXUS65 KFGZ 040538
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Tucson AZ
10:38 PM MST Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
tonight and Wednesday, with only a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the Utah/Arizona border on Thursday. Warmer and
drier conditions return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...It`s an active evening across northern Arizona (especially
for early June) as copious moisture, instability, and weak dynamics
have combined to create scattered to numerous thunderstorms across
the area. Some storms have been quite strong, with propagation to
the SW matching the storm motion to the NE resulting in nearly-
stationary storms which have dropped substantial rainfall in some
areas (radar-estimated accumulations of 1 1/2 to almost 3 inches).

Rain is anticipated to slowly decrease overnight, with most activity
across the southern portions of the CWA as south-moving outflows
continue to trigger storms. Another round of thunderstorms is
expected on Wednesday, before more typical dry June weather moves
into the area late this week and over the weekend.

Current forecast is in good shape, with no significant changes
anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /141 PM MST/...Scattered thunderstorms are
developing over the area and will become more numerous this
afternoon. These storms could have more staying power than usual and
last late into the night as dynamics from the Low approaching from
the California coast provides extra lift that usually would be lost
when we lose daylight. A FLOOD WATCH for flash flooding is now in
effect for the northwestern part of the state and will continue
until 5pm on Wednesday. Reason for the long duration of the event
being even though we may see a brief lull in activity on Wednesday
morning, daytime heating along with the weakening Low moving across
the area providing extra lift will allow another round of showers
and storms to initiate around noon Wednesday and continue through
the evening. As with most convective events, rainfall amounts will
be locally heavy under storms that do develop.

By Thursday this Low will have opened up into a weak wave and
departed the area but another shortwave brushing by to the north
of us could trigger a few isolated showers or storms mainly along
the Arizona/Utah border, but potentially as far south as the Grand
Canyon, with the rest of Arizona drying out and beginning to warm
back up closer to early June averages.

By Friday and lasting through the weekend, high pressure begins to
rebuild from the south which will dry the rest of the state out
and allow temperatures to climb to seasonal or slightly above
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 04/06Z through Thursday 05/06Z...Through 12Z
Wednesday...generally light rain or showers along and north of the
Mogollon Rim, with showers and a few -TSRA south of the Rim. The
strongest storms could produce MVFR/IFR conditions. SCT to NMRS storms
will redevelop after 16Z on Wednesday with MVFR/IFR in +RA, hail, and
gusty winds with the stronger storms.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/06Z through Saturday 07/06Z...A 20-30% chance of -
TSRA along and north of a line from KGCN - KRQE from 15Z Thurs - 03Z
Fri. Local MVFR/IFR possible in stronger storms with otherwise mostly
VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue on Wednesday, with only a few isolated
showers or storms along the Utah/Arizona border Thursday. A few
stronger storms could produce hail, heavy rain and erratic wind
gusts. Otherwise, expect daytime winds from the west to southwest
at 10-20 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Dry and warmer weather returns Friday
into the weekend with decreasing humidity each day and
temperatures climbing above average by the end of the weekend.
Winds generally west to southwest at 10-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for AZZ004-006>008-012-
015-016-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff