187
FXUS65 KFGZ 232310
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
410 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and windier weather is expected for the weekend
and into next week. Dry conditions look to prevail over the
weekend, with chances for showers increasing during the first-
half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Heights begin to fall today as a trough ejects
off the Pacific into the Great Basin. Slightly cooler, but still
above normal temperatures are expected today as a result, along
with some breezy winds from the south/southwest. Dry conditions
are expected to prevail, as any moisture from this system looks to
remain well to the north. The only potential for showers could be
a very light sprinkle or two on the Kaibab Plateau late this
evening.

Sunday...Winds increase through the day Sunday as northern Arizona
remains situated under an upper-level jet max. Winds near 700 mb
look to approach around 40-50 kts, which combined with mixing during
the afternoon should allow surface gusts to approach 30-40 mph. Some
locally stronger gusts upwards of 45-50 mph will be possible in the
typical downslope areas off the Mogollon Rim. While these localized
spots do look to exceed Wind Advisory criteria, given the more limited
areal extent of the 40+ mph gusts, an advisory does not appear needed.

Moisture does increase over the region as well, but still rather
limited. Any moisture looks to be confined largely to the far
northern portions of the state. Thus, any chances for showers or
sprinkles will be limited to the Kaibab Plateau.

Monday through Friday...An unsettled pattern remains into next
week, with Arizona largely under westerly zonal flow. Temperatures
will remain on the cooler side, but largely typical for this time
of year.

By the middle of next week, a shortwave looks to just barely graze
Arizona as it moves through Utah and Colorado. Moisture looks to be
a bit more plentiful with this system, so chances for showers look a
bit better starting Tuesday but especially on Wednesday. Even with
temperatures a little cooler, much of the precipitation will be in
the form of rain. As 700 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C will keep
snow levels above 10,000 feet initially. Cold air advection aloft
does increase later in the day Wednesday, with 700 mb temps ranging
from 0C across central Arizona to -5C over northeastern Arizona.
Thus, snow levels could fall into the 6000-7000 foot range by the
afternoon, but with surface temperatures will mostly above freezing,
little accumulation is expected.

Thereafter, cooler and drier air looks to set in across northern
Arizona for to close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 24/00Z through Monday 25/00Z...VFR expected. SW
winds 5-15 kts through 15Z, then increasing to 10-20 kts with
gusts 25-35 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 25/00Z through Wednesday 27/00Z...Gusty SW winds
continue through 03Z/Monday, becoming lighter on Monday. SW winds
increase to 10-20 kts after 18Z/Tuesday. ISO -SHRA/-SHSN mainly
north of KGCN on Monday with additional showers possible on
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Expect dry and windy conditions
on Sunday with southwest winds gusting 25 to 40 mph. Winds will be
lighter on Monday, with near normal temperatures and a slight chance
of showers over the North Kaibab.

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure system will bring cooling
temperatures and a chance for light rain and snow showers Tuesday
and Wednesday, with the best chances along and north of I-40.
Southwest winds gusting to 15-25 mph are forecast on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff