664
FXUS65 KFGZ 052326
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
426 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures trend downward as the week progresses,
but remain above normal.  Breezy southwest winds are expected
through at least the end of the week and a slight chance for
precipitation could return across the Kaibab Plateau on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Passing waves from the storm systems impacting
California this week will continue to flatten the southwesterly
flow aloft above Arizona and allow cooler air to move in. One of
these waves Friday will get close enough to clip far northwestern
Arizona and bring a few isolated showers to the Kaibab Plateau. Not
much in the way of QPF or snowfall is expected from these showers.
These showers will be gone by Saturday morning and the rest of the
region will have a pleasant weekend remaining dry with temperatures
about 5-10 degrees above average.

By Monday a deeper trough will rotate through the area. For the
most part unfortunately despite how far south it comes, it looks
to be dry with maybe a few isolated showers possible over the
White Mountains.

Models diverge considerably by middle of next week. ECMWF wants to
bring in a trough by Wednesday night while the GFS waits until
Thursday night. ECMWF is also more bullish about bringing in
multiple waves with higher amounts than the GFS is currently
showing. This will have to be monitored closely to see if for the
first time in awhile we indeed see a pattern change over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 06/00Z through Friday 07/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts decreasing to less than
10kts AFT 01Z-02Z Thursday. Resuming at S-SW10-20g25-30kts AFT
18Z-20Z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Friday 07/00Z through Sunday 09/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN north of terminal KGCN Friday night.
Daily sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts, decreasing each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...The dry and mild conditions
persist each day, besides for some isolated showers near the Kaibab
Plateau on Friday. Afternoon humidity on Thursday will be 10 to 25%,
increasing to 15 to 35% on Friday. Southwest winds remain elevated
each afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

Saturday through Monday...The dry conditions prevail with cooler
temperatures each day. Afternoon west-southwest winds remain breezy,
15 to 25 mph, through Monday with humidity values at or above 15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff