


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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432 FXUS65 KFGZ 052327 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 427 PM MST Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect pleasant Fall-like weather for the first half of the week. Unsettled conditions with precipitation chances return to the area during the second half of the week and last through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Southwesterly flow aloft generated by a ridge to our southeast and a trough over the eastern Pacific will keep pleasant Fall weather over the region for the first half of the week. Temperatures will be at seasonal averages for Monday but warm to about 5 degrees above average for the rest of the week. With the dry air in place and light to nonexistent winds at night, overnight temperatures once again will take a nosedive tonight and tomorrow before moderating a little as the week progresses. Still many questions exist on how things will turn out starting on Thursday. It will all be dependent on when and how much moisture gets drawn north from tropical cyclone Priscilla and the arrival of the next West Coast trough. Still some slight POPs for things to occur Thursday into Friday, mainly favoring the northwestern half of Arizona. Better POPs are showing up over the weekend as the West Coast trough slowly moves through providing the needed dynamics. Still waiting on some better model agreement before we look at advertising any weather headlines and impacts. && .AVIATION...Monday 06/00Z through Tuesday 07/00Z...VFR expected. Daytime SW winds less than 10 kts, becoming variable during the overnight period. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/00Z through Thursday 09/00Z...VFR expected. Daytime SW winds 5-10 kts, becoming light and variable during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Look for warm days and dry conditions. Winds southwesterly at 5-10 mph each afternoon, along with minimum RH of 10-20%. Wednesday through Friday...A slight chance for showers is forecast over the White Mountains on Wednesday, with increasing chances area wide on Thursday and Friday. Daytime winds southwesterly at 5-15 mph each day. Warm temperatures will continue. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Bernhart AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff