738
FXUS65 KFGZ 261736
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1036 AM MST Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front will bring cooler temperatures and
elevated southwesterly winds through Sunday. Expect gusts from 35
to 45 mph each day. Critical fire weather conditions will develop over
east central and northeast Arizona today and Sunday. Warmer temperatures
and lighter winds return next week, with a slight chance of an
afternoon shower over the high country mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds are already beginning to ramp up this morning, while
relative humidity is quickly dropping. Winds will be out of the
southwest with gusts up to 35-45 mph by this afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will be in effect for much of northern AZ today, and a Red
Flag Warning will be in effect for eastern zones where fuels are
driest. No changes to the forecast at this time, see the discussion
below for more details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /441 AM MST/...Deep low pressure is moving onshore
this morning just north of Santa Barbara, and will continue its
northeastward trek this weekend, eventually reaching northern Utah
by Sunday. This track is too far north for any precipitation in
Arizona, but we will experience gusty southwest winds and cooler
temperatures. The most widespread strong winds will be later this
morning through early evening, with the stronger winds on Sunday
mainly shifting to east central Arizona. For today, expect gusts
35-45 mph and a Wind Advisory is in effect for many areas
along/north of the Mogollon Rim. By Sunday, gusts in the 35-45 mph
range are forecast in mainly the southern half of Navajo and
Apache counties and another Wind Advisory may be issued later
today for that area. Humidity will also be low, and Red Flag
Warnings are in effect this weekend where the combination of the
driest fuels and strongest winds align. This is from the White
Mountains and Little Colorado River Valley northeastward.
Temperatures will be cooling down from west to east as the low
approaches, reaching 5-15 degrees below normal by Sunday
afternoon.

Next week - the main low moves off to the northeast, but lingering
shortwave troughing remains over the state through Thursday. This
will keep temperatures down close to normal. Models are
indicating an increase in mid and upper level moisture through
this period, bringing a slight chance of some light showers over
the higher elevations Tuesday through Thursday, with PoPs
currently in the 10-20% range.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 26/18Z through Sunday 27/18Z...S to SW winds
today 15-25 kts with gusts from 30-40 kts through about 02Z.
Winds decrease this evening, but still remain in the 10-20 kt
range overnight. Areas of LLWS are likely to develop along the
Mogollon Rim from KFLG - KSOW about 07Z - 14Z. Winds increase
again after 16Z Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail,
though scattered low, mid, and high clouds are expected Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 27/18Z through Tuesday 29/18Z...SW winds again on
Sunday with the strongest east of KFLG, where gusts will reach
30-40 kts. Lighter winds of 10-15 kts Monday/Tuesday. VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...Windy, dry and cooler with
areas of critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect today and Sunday for the Little Colorado River Valley and
northward and eastward including the White Mountains, Chuska
Mountains and Defiance Plateau. Winds south through southwest at
15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35-40 mph each day. Temperatures
drop to 5-10 degrees below average on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Less windy with a gradual warming trend.
A slight chance of high-based convection on Tuesday. Winds generally
from the west to southwest at 5-15 mph each day. Temperatures return
to near average by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ007-
009-011>015-017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ109-111>114-117-139-140.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ111>114-117-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski/JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff