071
FXUS65 KFGZ 041141
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
441 AM MST Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cold and unsettled weather will continue for the rest
of this week, with chances for showers each day through Saturday.
High pressure and dry weather return by Sunday, with much warmer
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure will continue to slowly move
eastward across Arizona today and Saturday. A few light showers
are moving northward across Gila County this morning. More showers
will develop later today into this evening as surface heating
destabilizes the atmosphere. The best chances for (snow) showers
today into this evening will be along the Mogollon Rim to the
White Mountains and the northward into the Chuska Mountains and
Defiance Plateau. The greatest potential for snow is over the
White Mountains with 6-9" possible over the highest peaks.

The low shifts east into New Mexico on Saturday with the best
chicanes for showers will be highest along the AZ/NM state line
in Apache County, with probabilities falling to near 20% farther
west to Flagstaff. Any additional snow accumulations should be
limited to around an inch above 7000 feet.

Sunday into next week high pressure will build over our region,
becoming quite strong toward the middle of next week. Dry weather
is expected, with daytime temperatures back above average by
Monday, and as much as 15-20 degrees above average by mid-week.
This would bring the warmest temperatures of the year so far with
70s in the mountains, 80s for the mid range elevations such as
Winslow/Prescott/Payson, and low to mid 90s for the lower valleys
like the Verde Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 04/12Z through Saturday 05/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions through 16Z with local IFR/LIFR in FZFG and low
CIGS and ISOLD -SHSN. After 18Z, scattered rain/snow showers,
isolated thunderstorms and local MVFR conditions redevelop. North
to northeast winds at 5-15 kts. Showers diminishing by 08Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 05/12Z through Monday 07/12Z...ISOLD -SHSN
Saturday mainly east of KPAN-KOV7. Dry weather and VFR conditions
return on Sunday. North to northeast wind 10-20 kts Saturday,
becoming north to northwest at 5-10 kts Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Scattered rain/snow
showers will continue today, especially afternoon and early evening
hours. For Saturday, scattered rain and snow showers shift to mainly
eastern Arizona with isolated showers elsewhere. Winds will be north
to northeast at 10-20 mph both days. Gusty and erratic winds
possible around any stronger showers.

Sunday through Tuesday...Turning dry and warmer. Winds generally
light at 5 to 15 mph, northerly on Sunday then shifting to
southwesterly on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff