724
FXUS65 KFGZ 082329
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
429 PM MST Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will dominate the Southwest through the
forecast period. As a result, above average temperatures and
mostly dry conditions will persist. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms possible each day, primarily across the higher
terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Taking a look out the window this afternoon,
conditions remain breezy with some fair weather cumulus clouds
developing over the higher terrain. There are a few locations in
northern Arizona where critical fire weather conditions are
currently taking place. However, the majority of these weather
stations that are hitting critical fire weather criteria are on or
near the Kaibab Plateau where a Red Flag Warning is in effect
until 8 pm MST this evening.

Elsewhere, conditions remain dry and hot with a few rain showers
popping up on radar over the White Mountains. Dry, west-southwest
flow with surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph, continues to dampen our
monsoon hopes. Strong high pressure remains in place over much of
the Southwest, however, pesky troughs of low pressure moving
across the Pacific Northwest continue to dry us out and keep any
sub-tropical moisture confined to southern Arizona and Mexico.
Unfortunately, this pattern, which is typically not common for
this time of year, looks to persist into next week with an active
troughy pattern over the northern states. With this in place for
the next week, the high pressure system over the Southwest will
transition and move in response to the active jet stream towards
the north, allowing moisture from the south to occasionally sneak
into northern Arizona. According to the recent ECMWF ensemble
guidance, PWATs increase slightly for this weekend (0.6"-0.9") for
locations along and south of the Mogollon Rim, but then decrease
once again as we begin the new work week. By the middle of next
week, monsoonal moisture looks to creep back into the region with
forecasted PWATs near average for this time of year.

As the monsoonal moisture ebbs and flows over the next week,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will follow suit. Isolated
to scattered coverage over the high terrain is expected Saturday
and Sunday, becoming isolated at best for Monday and Tuesday.
Chances increase and become more widespread Wednesday onward,
however, not seeing any strong signals for an abundant amount of
moisture for northern Arizona anytime soon. Of course this could
change depending on the overall strength/position of the high
pressure and tropical activity from the eastern Gulf and
Mexico/southern Arizona.

The good news is that temperatures do look to decrease some from
Saturday onward, becoming closer to average for this time of year.
Still hot, especially for this Flagstaffer, but this is what is
expected for August. This is why the Extreme Heat Warning for
lower elevations of Gila/Yavapai counties has not been extended
past today as we head back to temperatures typical for this time
of year. With that said, the warning for lower elevations of the
Grand Canyon continues through Tuesday with temperatures of 110
degrees and above likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 09/00Z through Sunday 10/00Z...Mostly VFR
conditions will continue. Areas of haze/smoke north of KGCN towards
KPGA, and also south of a KPAN - KSOW line. Isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA southeast of a KPAN - KSJN line with gusty outflow
 winds up to 40 kts possible. SW through W winds gusting to 30 kts
 through about 03Z and then decreasing to less than 10 kts
 overnight. On Saturday, W winds around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20
 kts. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA in the White Mountains with an
 isolated -TSRA as far west as KFLG.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 10/00Z through Tuesday 12/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions with localized areas of haze/smoke north of KGCN and
south of a KPAN - KSOW line. Look for daily chances for
-SHRA/-TSRA, primarily across the higher terrain between 18Z-03Z.
 Outside of storm driven winds, expect southwest through northwest
 winds 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts. Light and variable winds
 are expected during the overnight periods

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Lighter winds and mainly dry
conditions are forecast. Lower daytime temperatures are on the way
but still will remain above normal. Chances for showers/storms
persist each day, mainly across the area from the White Mountains
and toward Flagstaff. Gusty/erratic winds and lightning with any
storms. Expect Minimum RH values 8-15% north of I-40, and 15-25%
south of I-40.

Monday through Wednesday...Look for above normal temperatures with
westerly winds at 5-15 mph. Daily chances for showers/storms will
stick around, primarily across the higher terrain. Minimum RH values
expected to be 8-20%, with the single digits mostly along and north
of the Little Colorado River Valley.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ104.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ018-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff