821
FXUS65 KFGZ 032338
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
438 PM MST Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cold and unsettled weather will continue for the rest
of this week, with chances for showers each day through Saturday.
High pressure and dry weather return by Sunday, with much warmer
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another shortwave associated with the large western
US trough is diving into western Arizona this afternoon, bringing
cold temperatures aloft and weak lift over our region. Even with
minimal daytime heating, widespread showers have developed today
over the majority of the forecast area. Snow levels are near 5000
feet. In the heavier snow showers, visibility is less than 1/2
mile with some accumulation on roadways (per ADOT cams) creating
locally hazardous travel. Snow is melting on roads in between
showers as even a peak of the April sun clears things up quickly.
By late afternoon and evening, any showers that persist will have
a greater impact as temperatures cool down. Showers decrease
through the evening with only isolated activity by late evening
and overnight.

Friday - the low shifts into southeast Arizona by afternoon. This
will cause the flow aloft to switch to more east/northeasterly. We
expect another round of convective rain and snow showers during
the afternoon and evening once again, with snow levels 5500-6000
feet but locally lower in heavier showers. The greatest coverage
is expected along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains, with
lesser coverage to the north. Most of the QPF guidance is light
translating to under 1" of snow. However, there has been a trend
toward some heavier amounts over the higher elevations of the
White Mountains, with 2-6" above 7000-8000 feet.

Saturday - as the low shifts east into New Mexico, shower chances
will be highest along the AZ/NM state line in Apache County, with
probabilities falling to near 20% farther west to Flagstaff. Any
additional snow accumulations should be limited to around an inch
above 7000 feet.

Sunday into next week - model output in good agreement that high
pressure will build over our region, becoming quite strong toward
the middle of next week. Dry weather will return, with daytime
temperatures back above normal by Monday, and as much as 15-20
degrees above normal by mid week. This would get daytime highs
into the 70s in the mountains, 80s for the mid range elevations
such as Winslow/Prescott/Payson, and low to mid 90s for the lower
valleys like the Verde Valley. From snow to heat in one week,
gotta love springtime!

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 04/00Z through Saturday 05/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are forecast with isolated MVFR/IFR conditions over the
higher terrain. Look for scattered rain/snow showers along with
isolated thunderstorms through 02Z. After 02Z, only isolated
showers activity through 18Z. Winds becoming light and variable
overnight. After 18Z, scattered rain/snow showers and isolated
thunderstorms redevelop with north to northeast winds at 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 05/00Z through Monday 07/00Z...Scattered
rain/snow showers and isolated MVFR/IFR conditions along and east
of KPAN-KFLG-Four Corners line through Saturday evening.
Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions. VFR conditions all areas Sunday
as things dry out. North to northeast wind 10-20 kts Saturday,
North to northwest a 5-10 kts Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Scattered rain/snow showers
on Friday, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Scattered rain and snow showers mainly in eastern Arizona on
Saturday.  Winds N-NE 10-20 mph on Friday and Saturday. Gusty,
erratic winds possible around any stronger shower.

Sunday through Tuesday...Drying out and warming up with temperatures
close to average on Sunday and above average Monday and Tuesday.
Winds NW 5-15 mph on Sunday, W-SW 5-10 mph on Monday, W-SW 5-15 mph
on Tuesday. Min RH 10-15% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff