740
FXUS65 KFGZ 240740
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1240 AM MST Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture gradually increases across eastern Arizona
through the week, with near daily chances for high-based showers
and storms. Otherwise, dry conditions and warming conditions
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough is in place over the Great Basin, with a
strong ridge of high pressure situated over the east. Moisture
advection continues to increase over New Mexico, which will
gradually increase across eastern Arizona as the trough begins to
lift. As a result, daily chances for high-based showers can be
expected over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Moisture
quickly cuts off further to the west, keeping much of the region
dry through the coming week. By the weekend, guidance tries to
build an area of high pressure over the southwest. With this,
there is the potential for a broader increase in moisture, and
therefore high-based storms. Much of the the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE
members seem to agree with this as all show a subtle increase in
PWAT by the weekend and even more so by next week. Otherwise,
gradually warming temperatures and typical afternoon breezes are
expected through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 24/06Z through Wednesday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR
expected. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming S-SW 10-20
kts with gusts to 25-30 kts after 16Z. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA along
and south of a KSOW-KRQE line after 18Z. Gusty and erratic winds
possible near showers/storms.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 25/06Z through Friday 27/06Z...Mainly VFR
expected. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-06Z each day, mainly along
and south of a KSOW-KRQE line. SW winds 5-15 kts during the day
with light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Slight chance for high-based
showers across eastern Arizona each afternoon, otherwise warm and
dry conditions. Winds southwest 10-20 mph today, subsiding to 5-15
mph on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Warming temperatures and mainly dry
conditions, outside of daily chances for high-based showers and
storms across eastern Arizona. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each
afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff