198
FXUS65 KFGZ 021739
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1039 AM MST Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue through early next
week. Moisture may return around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to remains across the Desert
Southwest this morning and will stay in place through the weekend.
This pattern keeps us dry through the weekend with hot temperatures
expected. The high starts to shift to the east early in the new
week, which may allow for some moisture to return towards the middle
of the week.

With high pressure continuing to sit over the region, we will
continue to see things drying out. Moisture is meager and any
showers that develop will be limited to Apache County today. With
little to no moisture pushing into the region (outside of the White
Mountains), RH values dropping into the single digits to lower teens
and afternoon breezes, it will keep near-critical fire weather
concerns through at least early next week.

With no relief in sight, the heat will continue across the forecast
area. Depending on whether or not we can get some moisture into the
area by midweek, the current warning for the Grand Canyon may need
to be extended further.

The high looks to push to the east and over New Mexico early in the
week, with the potential for some moisture to advect back into our
area. Whether or not we will be able to see much develop is yet to
be seen and forecast confidence is currently low. Another issue will
be the heat combined with increasing moisture and we may see some of
the hottest conditions of the summer, especially across the lower
elevations of Yavapai County. The heat looks to peak around
Wednesday or Thursday and we may need to raise some headlines.
However, if we can get decent moisture into the region we may see
more cloud cover and in turn could see some lower temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 02/18Z through Sunday 03/18Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA over southern Apache County
through 02Z Sunday. Patches MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA line
due to FU. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25-30kts, becoming light
overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 03/18Z through Tuesday 05/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Patches MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA line due to
FU. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25-30kts each day, becoming light
overnight. Winds may be slightly stronger on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Hot and mainly dry conditions,
outside of a slight chance for thunderstorms near the White
Mountains this afternoon. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30
mph today, becoming west-southwest 10-15 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH
10-25% today, falling to 5-10% on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot and mainly dry conditions. Slight
chance for thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Southwest winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each
afternoon. Minimum RH 5-15% on Monday, rising to 10-20% for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff