965
FXUS65 KFGZ 250922
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
222 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A zonal flow will continue through the first half of
this week, with a weak wave passing through Utah. The trajectory
of this shortwave will keep moisture limited to far northern
Arizona, but gusty winds across the higher terrain are anticipated
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread dry/calm conditions are
forecast to return for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A west to east flow aloft is expected to remain in
place through at least the middle of the week. This flow will keep
afternoon highs 5-15 degrees above normal, but increased moisture
from an atmospheric river will result in precipitation chances
across far northern AZ and elevated winds. The NBM suggests
precipitation starting across the Kaibab Plateau as early as 11 AM
MST today, but steadily increasing and pushing southward through
Wednesday. The southward spread of showers will be associated with
a passing cold front and shortwave that brush along the AZ/UT
border. Snow levels are not projected to drop below 9000` until
Wednesday, so the majority of the precipitation that falls prior
to 5 AM MST Wednesday will be rainfall. As the colder airmass
moves through, snow levels will gradually drop and allow for
light snow accumulation across the Kaibab Plateau, Black Mesa, and
Chuska Mountains.

High pressure is forecast to build behind the passage of the
shortwave, brining dry/calm conditions back to northern Arizona.
Model guidance is suggesting a closed low to form off the southern
coast of California this coming weekend, but confidence is low on
what potential impacts we could see from this. Check back later in
the week to see if there is better alignment on what`s to come.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 25/06Z through Tuesday 26/06Z...MVFR cigs possible
through 15Z, mainly near KFLG/KCMR/KGCN. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions through the period. Light and variable winds through
17Z, then becoming SW 5-15 kts. MVFR conditions possible after
00Z Tuesday in -SHRA (-SHSN above 7500-8000 ft) mainly near and
north of a KGCN-E91 line.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 26/06Z through Thursday 28/06Z...MVFR conditions
possible in -SHRA (-SHSN above 7500-8000 ft) around and north of a
KGCN-E91 line, spreading southward after 00Z Wednesday to near a
KIGM-KFLG-KRQE line. Light winds during the overnight periods,
becoming S-SW 10-20 kts on Tuesday and then more W-NW on
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Look for a chance for showers,
mainly across far northern Arizona. Otherwise, dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures are forecast. Light south/southwest winds
today will increase to 15-25 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Rain and snow showers possible on
Wednesday, mainly north of I-40. Dry conditions then set in for
Thursday before a slight chance of showers returns on Friday. West
winds 10-20 mph on Wednesday will become variable around 5-10 mph
for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff