564
FXUS65 KFGZ 050222
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
722 PM MST Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and unsettled weather will continue through
Saturday, with a chances for rain and snow showers. High pressure
and dry weather return by Sunday, with much warmer temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...Showers are beginning to weaken as we lose daytime
heating and the ones that remain are moving off to the south as
the Low pressure system shifts off to the southeast. Going
forecast looks good, no updates planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /449 PM MST/...Low pressure was centered over
south central Arizona this afternoon, heading toward the east.
Scattered to numerous showers have developed with daytime heating,
most widespread in the White Mountains region closer to the low.
Snow levels are around 5500-6000 feet but most of this is melting
as it falls, except above around 7000 feet. By mid evening, most
of the shower activity will diminish. The exception looks like the
White Mountains area where moist upslope flow from the north
should keep showers going overnight in some spots. By Saturday,
the low will move east into New Mexico, though moist and cool
northerly flow in eastern Arizona (Navajo and Apache counties)
will keep daytime shower chances in the 40-60% range. Chances
decrease as you head westward, with a 20% chance for Flagstaff,
Sedona, and Prescott. North-northeasterly flow will increase early
Saturday morning, producing breezy conditions especially for
Coconino and Yavapai counties. Expect sustained winds of 15-20 mph
in this area, with some gusts to around 35 mph in the favored
downslope/gap locations. Winds should start to decrease by
afternoon.

Sunday through next week - Low pressure moves well east of the
state with high pressure gradually building over the southwest US.
This will result in dry weather, light west to southwest breezes
of 10-15 mph, and much warmer temperatures - especially Tuesday
through Friday. By mid to late week, daytime highs are forecast to
be around 15 degrees above normal. These values will be within a
couple degrees of reaching daily records in some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 05/00Z through Sunday 06/00Z...Isolated
SHSN/SHRA and TSRA through 08Z with localized MVFR conditions
possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected. North to
northeast winds at 5-15 kts, increasing to 10-20 kts after 10Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 06/00Z through Tuesday 08/00Z...Isolated
SHSN/SHRA east of KPAN-K0V7 line with localized MVFR conditions
possible, ending Saturday evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR
conditions expected. Winds diminishing Saturday night, becoming
northwesterly at 5-15 kts on Sunday then shifting to westerly on
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Scattered rain and snow
showers will continue across eastern Arizona on Saturday with
isolated showers elsewhere. Drier and warmer conditions return on
Sunday. North to northeast winds at 10-20 mph on Saturday will
become north to northwest at 5-15 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warmer conditions are forecast.
Southwest winds at 5-15 mph on Monday and Tuesday, becoming more
westerly on Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart/JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff