966
FXUS65 KFGZ 101726
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1026 AM MST Thu Sep 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms from the
White Mountains and Mogollon Rim southward again Thursday.
Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity could develop by
Friday and Friday night with a passing weather disturbance.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday, then
cooling off over the weekend. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure was centered over the California/Arizona
border early morning Thursday. In this position flow around the
high will deliver drier air from the west to northwest. Limited
monsoon moisture will continue to linger along and south of the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with just slight chances for a
stray shower or thunderstorm. Further north, the drier air will
win out resulting in fair and breezy conditions. Under high
pressure temperatures will remain on the hot side with mountain
highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s and 95 to 105 at lower
elevations.

For Friday and the weekend..A trough will dive across the Pacific
Northwest pushing the California/Arizona high center eastward. As
the shifting trough brushes Arizona the models continue to show
decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Friday
night. Vertical wind shear will strengthen some with the passing
trough which usually means a few storms will become organized with
isolated severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding
possible. The trough moves eastward on Saturday and Sunday but
monsoon moisture will linger with at least slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms continuing. Under the influence of the
trough it will become breezy with general west to southwest winds
at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph starting Friday and lasting
through the weekend. Cooler with temperature dropping to slightly
above seasonal average by Sunday.

Looking into next week...Troughing will continue over the Pacific
Northwest early next week with a series of weak shortwave troughs
brushing Arizona and interacting with monsoon moisture. While it
is difficult to predict exactly how things will pan out it appears
that unsettled conditions will continue with at least slight
chances for daily showers and thunderstorms. Models still showing
a stronger low diving southward off the west coast later next week
turning the flow more southerly over Arizona resulting in perhaps
better chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 10/18Z through Friday 11/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible through 02Z Friday, primarily
south of the I-40 corridor. Daytime sfc winds W-NW5-15kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 11/18Z through Sunday 13/18Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon/early evening.
Daytime sfc winds W-10-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Isolated showers and storms will
be possible along and south of the Mogollon Rim today, becoming
scattered on Friday across much of northern Arizona. Winds ranging
from west to northwest 5-15 mph today, becoming west to southwest 10-
20 mph on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Chances for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms remain through the weekend into Monday, mainly
over the higher terrain. Winds southwest 10-20 mph on Saturday,
increasing to 15-25 mph gusting 30-35 mph on Sunday, then subsiding
to 10-20 mph for Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff