640
FXUS65 KFGZ 041107
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 AM MST Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will dominate the region through the
forecast period, resulting in hot daytime highs and mostly dry
conditions. Slight chances for showers/storms to return across the
higher terrain by mid-week, but otherwise, near-critical fire
weather conditions will persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong area of high pressure will remain over much
of the Southwest through the next several days. Although this
pattern will wobble around, it will ultimately have the same
affects each day. We can expect above normal daytime highs
through the period, mostly dry conditions, and breezy afternoon
winds. There is a sliver of hope for some moisture to return by
mid-week, but confidence is not great, and activity will likely be
limited to the higher terrain. So let`s break everything down for
the fun of it...

Temperatures...Afternoon highs will remain 2-12 degrees above
normal through at least the next 7 days. With the continuation of
hot temperatures, the Extreme Heat Warning for lower elevations of
the Grand Canyon was extended through the end of the week. Daytime
highs look to reach 110-116 degrees at Phantom Ranch through at
least the end of the work week. It`s possible we may add some
additional lower elevation zones into this product later in the
week, but the Grand Canyon zone seemed like a slam dunk for now.

Winds...Look for afternoon breezes out of the southwest through
west each day, generally 10-20 mph. Wind gusts look to be 20-30
mph each afternoon, with strongest gusts located across western
Coconino County. These elevated winds and continued dry
conditions will result in localized near-critical fire weather
concerns, primarily across the Kaibab Plateau.

Relative Humidities...As previously mentioned, the area of high
pressure will shimmy across the Southwest. As this ridge expands
eastward, we might just see some moisture creep into northern
Arizona. The first indication of this is the minimum RH values
slightly increase through the week, primarily across the higher
terrain. Even with the slight uptick in values, near-critical fire
weather concerns will stick around for the foreseeable future.

Precipitation...I wish I could say our confidence is high on the
return of moisture by mid-week, but that`s just not the case here.
With these hot temperatures continuing, convection can have a hard
time igniting. The best odds look to be across the Mogollon Rim
and White Mountain Wednesday through Friday, but the NBM is only
suggesting a 15-30% chance. The concern we`ll have to watch with
any storms that do form, is the potential for dry lightning.

I think that should cover everything for now. Be sure to check
back for updates!

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 04/12Z through Tuesday 05/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Areas of HZ/FU likely north of KGCN
to KPGA from a local wildfire. Light and variable winds will
stick around until 18Z, when SW winds 10-20 kts gusting near 30
kts return. Light and variable winds return after 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 05/12Z through Thursday 07/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Areas of HZ/FU likely north of KGCN
to KPGA from a local wildfire. Slight chances for -SHRA/-TSRA
across the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon. Look for SW-W winds
10-20 kts gusting near 25 kts each day, becoming light and
variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Hot temperatures, dry
conditions, and breezy winds are forecast through much of the
period. As a result, near-critical fire weather concerns are
expected across much of northern AZ. Southwest winds 10-20 mph,
gusting 25-30 mph, expected each afternoon, with strongest winds
across western Coconino County. Minimum RH values 5-15% this
afternoon, slightly increasing tomorrow to 10-20%.

Wednesday through Friday...Hot, dry, and breezy conditions expected
to continue. Slight chances for showers/storms to return each
afternoon, primarily across the eastern Rim and White Mountains.
Look for west-southwest winds 10-20 mph each day, and minimum RH
values generally 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Friday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff