915
FXUS65 KFGZ 072022
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
122 PM MST Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above average temperatures will continue for the
remainder of the week, peaking on Thursday and Friday with a few
records likely being tied or falling during that time period. A
dry trough will move towards the area this upcoming weekend
bringing a slight cooldown but temperatures still remain above
average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High Pressure ridge has firmly established itself
over the area and will remain in the area and intensify over the
next few days. Day 3 and 4 clusters are in firm agreement on the
ridge remaining established over the region as well as being
stronger than average for early April. This will allow
temperatures to approach or break a few records on Thursday and
Friday as the ridge peaks and its axis moves across the area.

This weekend the Day 5 and 6 clusters break down a bit in
agreement on placement and intensity of a trough approaching the
area, however model ensembles are showing nothing in the way of
precipitation. The main effect of this trough will be an increase
in winds as well as temperatures trending downward starting on
Saturday. With the increased winds and above average temperatures
on Saturday and Sunday parts of the region will approach critical
fire weather conditions so this will have to be monitored as
minimum RH drops to 5-10% and the winds increase to 15-25 mph,
gusting to 35 mph.

Temperatures will be closer but still above average to start next
week with no significant precipitation in sight at this time.



&&

.AVIATION...Monday 07/18Z through Tuesday 08/18Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Winds are VRB or terrain driven at 10 kts or less
throughout the period.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 08/18Z through Thursday 10/18Z...Continued VFR
conditions with minimal cloud cover. Afternoon winds are W-SW 10-20
kts on Tuesday, becoming W-NW 5-15 kts on Wednesday. Winds are light
and VRB or terrain driven during overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Warm and dry. Daytime highs
5-15 degrees above seasonal averages, with minimum RH values
forecast to be at or below 15%. Winds are west to southwest 10-20
mph on Tuesday, then west to northwest 5-15 mph on Wednesday

Thursday through Saturday...Very warm and dry, with potential for
elevated fire risk this weekend. Daytime highs 10-20 degrees above
normal expected each day, with minimum RH values at or below 15%.
Winds are light and variable Thursday, then southwest 10-20 mph on
Friday. There is potential for near critical fire weather conditions
on Saturday, with winds southwest 15-25 mph gusting up to 35 mph and
minimum RH at or below 10%. Fire risk may be dampened by fuels, as
current ERC values are low but rising.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff