082
FXUS65 KFGZ 241725
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1025 AM MST Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and near normal daytime temperatures
will continue well into next week. Expect occasionally breezy
afternoons, especially Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...A shortwave is moving through southern Nevada this
morning and slows down as it makes its move eastward. With such
dry conditions in the lower levels ahead of the wave, it is
unlikely we see any showers, though we can certainly see some
virga around the region. Main feature of this wave will be an
increase in cloud cover and some breezy south-southwest winds.
Forecast is in great shape and only minor updates were needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /454 AM MST/...What can be best described as a weird and very
loosely organized rex block has formed over the western United
States this weekend and will last well into next week. This results
in split low, with Arizona on the southern end of this pattern, thus
weakly cyclonic flow with embedded s/wvs.

Hghts in this pattern are right around normal and most s/wvs that do
form are dynamically insignificant and contain little to no moisture.

So, we end up in a pattern that will produce southwest breezes from
time to time, especially today and Sunday, with temperatures right
around normal and single digit PoPs. Not very exciting, although the
dry air mass will force us to pay attention to FWX concerns, mostly
for today and Sunday. No headlines at this time, but winds are high
enough to potentially cause a problem with any errant fire starts.Expect VFR
conditions. Winds will be variable less than 10 kts the remainder
of the night. Look for Another round of gusty winds after 16Z,
becoming south-southwest at 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Winds
will diminish Saturday evening.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 25/06Z through Tuesday 27/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Daytime winds west to southwest at 10-20 kts,
nighttime winds variable less than 10 kts.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 24/18Z through Sunday 25/18Z...VFR conditions
are expected, with some BKN-SCT high clouds. Winds are southwest
10-20 kts gusting up to 30 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 25/18Z through Tuesday 27/18Z...VFR conditions are
expected. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts each day, light and VRB during
the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Southwest winds around 10-20 mph
with gusts around 30 mph today, becoming southwest to west 10-15 mph
with gusts 20-25 mph on Sunday. Slightly below average temperatures
with minimum RH values 5-15% and areas of near critical fire weather
conditions each day.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry conditions and gradually warming
temperatures through midweek. Southwest to west winds 10-20 mph
through Wednesday. Minimum RH values 5-15% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Peterson
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff