423
FXUS65 KFGZ 171649
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
949 AM MST Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains continue through Tuesday, becoming
more scattered across the area from Wednesday onward. Otherwise,
expect warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions with southwest
afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry air has arrived and we should see a marked
downturn in convective activity this afternoon and through early in
the week. Any showers or thunderstorms that do develop will be
limited to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, where the
moisture hasn`t fully cleared out.

Through the next few days, high pressure will shift westward and
eventually set up towards the Four Corners. Until then, temperatures
will be on the rise and we will once again see above normal
temperatures and mostly dry conditions across the region. Heat
headlines look likely for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon
for Tuesday through the end of the week as daytime temperatures in
the canyon will rise above 110 degrees. The heat will hang around
through the entire week so be prepared for hot conditions,
especially if you reside in the lower elevations.

By Wednesday, the flow around the high will allow for a southerly
fetch and an increase in moisture. We should start to see more
scattered showers and storms across the region continuing through
the end of the week. The moisture may be slow to ramp up but
increased monsoon activity is expected across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 17/18Z through Monday 18/18Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA until 03Z, mainly south of a
KSOW-KSJN line. Gusty and erratic winds in and near thunderstorms.
Outside of storms, southwesterly winds 5-15 kts until 02Z, then
light less than 10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 18/18Z through Wednesday 20/18Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon along and south
of a KPAN-KSOW-KSJN line. Southwest winds 5-15 kts each day,
turning light less than 10 kts at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Warmer and mostly dry conditions
expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains region each afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds possible in and near storms. Outside of storms, west-
southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with terrain driven winds
each night. Minimum RH values around 10-30%, highest values across
the White Mountains.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot conditions persist through the week.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Mogollon Rim
and White Mountains on Tuesday, then becoming more scattered on
Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with
terrain driven winds at night.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff