804
FXUS65 KFGZ 111144
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
444 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Sub-tropical moisture will lead to widespread showers
and thunderstorms through tonight. Flash flooding will be possible
as a result of the heavy rainfall. Unsettled conditions continue
into the first part of next week, but coverage will decrease and
become more of an isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The remnants of what was once tropical storm
Priscilla, are pushing through the region early this morning with
areas of moderate precipitation. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are pushing off to the northeast, with much of the activity confine
to the west of the I-17 corridor. As we go through the day, the
trough off to our west will start to dip southward and this will
allow for large-scale ascent to continue to take place in advance of
the approaching frontal boundary.

The trough also brings with it dry air aloft and strong mid-level
flow. With moisture around, it won`t be too difficult to get some
showers to develop but with deep shear and a continued southwesterly
flow, there will be the potential for some strong to potentially
severe storms. While we won`t be overly warm across the region
today, model soundings do show modest CAPE and upslope areas might
be the best locations for the storms to pop off. Best timing for any
stronger storms will be from around mid day through this evening and
the main threat will be damaging wind, though some hail is possible.
The deep shear profile also may be indicative of the potential for
some rotating updrafts so while tornadoes are not high on our list
for today, there may be some rotation around the region.

For Sunday and beyond...Several troughs will highlight the forecast
for much of the coming week with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 11/12Z through Sunday 12/12Z...A band of
widespread SHRA is moving west to east across northern AZ,
currently located along/east of KGCN-KPRC line. Drops to MVFR/IFR
conditions are expected with brief drops to LIFR in the heaviest
showers. SCT SHRA/TSRA will continue Saturday afternoon/evening.
Winds are generally light and VRB through 18Z, becoming southwest
10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts thereafter. Elevated winds will linger
downwind of terrain features 06-12Z. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near heavier showers/thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 12/12Z through Tuesday 14/12Z...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
each day, primarily south of I-40. Mostly VFR with brief drops to
MVFR/IFR in heavier showers. Winds are generally southwest at 5-15
kts on Sunday, becoming SW 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts on Monday.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near heavier
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...A band of widespread wetting
rains will push east across northern Arizona this morning, mostly
moving into NM by noon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
fire across northern this afternoon into the evening, some storms
strong to severe. A Flood Watch will remain in in effect for most
of northern Arizona through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms
will become isolated-scattered on Sunday, primarily confined south
of I-40. Winds south through southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30
mph today, becoming lighter at 5-15 mph on Sunday. Gusty and
erratic winds can be expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday...Continued isolated-scattered storms on
Monday, becoming isolated Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime winds south
through southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph each day. Gusty and
erratic winds can be expected near showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ004>010-012-013-015-016-
018-037>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff