017
FXUS65 KFGZ 261022
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 AM MST Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer, dry, and breezy conditions set in through
this weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will slowly
spread north and west across the region next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper low centered over northern California this
morning will continue to produce dry southwesterly flow across our
region through the weekend. Winds are forecast to peak today, with
gusts reaching 25-35 mph especially from Flagstaff north and west.
Along with relative humidity dropping to 7-15%, this will result
in some near-critical fire weather. The flow aloft weakens slightly
on Sunday though it will remain breezy.

Monday through Friday - the strong ridge that has been impacting
the eastern 2/3 of the country will expand westward and result in
warmer daytime temperatures and lighter winds. The flow pattern
should also be more favorable for a slow return of moisture from
the southeast. Models have been indicating an easterly wave
tracking along the southern periphery of the ridge and into our
region late Monday through mid week, and this could act to further
enhance moisture return and storm chances. However, the latest
couple of model cycles have held on to more west coast troughing,
and the track of the wave could stay farther east than previously
expected (previous model cycles showed the wave moving directly
over our forecast area, now shifted more into New Mexico/far
eastern AZ). So while we are forecasting a slow return to shower
and thunderstorm chances, there is still uncertainty on how
extensive this will be and how far west the moisture reaches.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 26/12Z through Sunday 27/12Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. Smoke layers and reduced visibility from
just north of KGCN to KPGA through the period. Southwest winds at
10-20 kts gusting to 25-30 kts will develop after 17Z, then
decreasing to generally less than 10 kts after 03Z.


OUTLOOK...Sunday 27/12Z through Tuesday 29/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Smoke layers and reduced visibility from just north of
KGCN to KPGA through the period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible
Monday afternoon mainly KFLG-KRQE southward. Daytime southwest
winds at 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts Sunday, diminishing to 5-10
kts with gusts to 20 kts on Monday. Nighttime winds generally
less than 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Warm and dry, with locally
windy conditions. Areas of near critical fire weather conditions
today , mainly over portions of Coconino County. Daytime winds
southwest 10 to 20 mph each day, with gusts from 25 to 35 mph.
Highest wind gusts today, with some decrease Sunday. Minimum
relative humidity values 7 to 15 percent.

Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
slowly spreading back northwest. Daytime southwest winds 10 to 15
mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values
will slowly rise through the period, most places above 15 percent by
Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff