220
FXUS65 KFGZ 092344
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
444 PM MST Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Sub-tropical moisture will lead to widespread showers
and thunderstorms across northern and central Arizona through late
Saturday. Flash flooding will be possible as a result of the heavy
rainfall. Unsettled conditions continue into the first part of next
week, but coverage will decrease and become more of an isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Nothing has really changed from the prior few days of
thinking. Sub-tropical moisture will continue streaming into Arizona
from the southwest, with steadily increasing shower activity heading
into tonight. This moisture plume will be acted upon by large-scale
ascent and a cold front as we head into Friday and Saturday, drying
out Sunday. The period of heaviest rainfall will probably Friday
night through midday Saturday. Expect 2-3+ inches within the bands
of heavier rainfall when it`s over. Other locations will see at
least an inch, in general. The main moisture plume has been shifted
slightly eastward, but general will run from SW Yavapai County up to
the Mogollon Rim.

Embedded in this pattern is a low CAPE/medium shear upper air
profile, really through the entire event. Occasional, isolated
stronger storms, perhaps with rotation, cannot be ruled out at any
time.

Continued troughing off the west coast will keep the threat of
showers going into early next week, but amounts will not come close
to this. Then, cool and blustery to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 10/00Z through Saturday 11/00Z...Expect
widespread SHRA developing overnight and continuing through
Friday, with Isold TSRA this evening and again on Friday
afternoon. MVFR and local IFR in showers and thunderstorms. High
terrain locations will see more persistent IFR conditions due to a
combination of low clouds, fog, and rain. Winds will generally be
out of the SE with gusts 15-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 11/00Z through Monday 13/00Z...Expect widespread
SHRA/TSRA through Saturday night, decreasing from the NW on
Sunday. Widespread MVFR conditions and areas of IFR due to
continuous periods of SHRA/RA and isolated TSRA. Periods of
IFR/LIFR conditions in FG are also expected over higher elevation
upslope areas, including KFLG/KGCN. Winds will become S-SW at
10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts on Saturday. Gusty/erratic winds
will also be possible in heavier showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Widespread wetting rains, with
the highest accumulations expected in Yavapai and Coconino counties.
A Flood Watch will be in effect for most of northern Arizona through
the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms also possible. Winds south
through southeast 5-15 mph each day, but gusty and erratic winds can
be expected near showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday through Tuesday...Storm coverage becomes more isolated to
scattered during this period. Daytime winds southwest 10-15 mph with
gusts near 20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected near
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening for AZZ004>010-012-013-015-
016-018-037>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff