116
FXUS65 KFGZ 041048
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 AM MST Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect drier conditions and a warming trend through the
holiday weekend. Hot weather with only low storm chances is
forecast next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The weak trough that enhanced storm activity on
Thursday is shifting northeast of the state, with a few showers
continuing to move through eastern Arizona. Expecting these to end
by sunrise, with much drier air moving in behind the trough.
Precipitable water values by this afternoon are forecast to be
0.40"-0.60" across our area, about half what they were Thursday.
So if you have outdoor plans for the holiday, expect sunny
conditions with high temperatures around 5 degrees below average
for this time of year. Southwest winds of 10-20 mph will develop.

From Saturday through next week, high pressure from northern
Mexico into New Mexico will gradually shift northwestward over
Arizona and strengthen. While there is still some uncertainty
concerning where the center of the high will set up (this has
implications for moisture return), only minor increases in
moisture are forecast at this time. Slight storm chances return to
the forecast Sunday from around Flagstaff eastward, and these
continue through next week. However, the main story by next week
is likely going to be heat. Starting Monday, the mean 500 mb
height is 595-599dm over northern Arizona. This is a very strong
ridge, and will likely lead to highs in the 90s in the mountains,
around 100 for Prescott/Winslow/Payson, to 110+ for the lower
elevations of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon. Heat warning
products may be needed as early as Monday for some of these areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 04/12Z through Saturday 05/12Z...Localized fog
with MVFR vsby vicinity KFLG/KGCN through 15Z, otherwise VFR
through the period. SW winds 10-20 kts gusting around 25 kts
after 16-18Z becoming light again this evening.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 05/12Z through Monday 07/12Z...VFR conditions.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA primarily over southern Apache County each
afternoon, though an isolated shower is possible as far west as
KFLG by Sunday. Winds generally light, trending SW 5-15kts in the
daytime hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Much drier conditions
return area wide today, then a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms develops over the White Mountains on Saturday. Minimum
RH values look to drop to 15-25% today and 10-20% on Saturday.
South through west winds 10-20 mph each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Hot with minimum RH 10-20% each day. Light
southwest through west winds 10-15 mph. Low precipitation chances
each afternoon look to be mostly Flagstaff eastward.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff