693
FXUS65 KFGZ 101930
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1230 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures and scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected through much of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will sit over the Four Corners over
the next few days. This puts Arizona in a favorable spot for
increased moisture flow into the area which will lead to more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. With PWAT`s hitting
1.0-1.5", storms will be able to put down more rain and as the
soil saturates throughout the week, flash flooding will definitely
be a concern. With the higher moisture and likely increased cloud
cover, high temperatures will also drop below average for the
first time in awhile.

Moisture and POPs are expected to peak around Thursday. By Friday
a weak West Coast trough begins to move into the area which will
push our high pressure center to the east, as well as introduce
some drier air across the region. By Saturday storm chances will
be confined mainly over the White Mountain region and the very
highest terrain. High temperatures will begin to recover back to
mid August averages by Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected outside of thunderstorms. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA,
becoming SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA after 20Z, with the greatest storm
activity along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts are
possible in and around +TS. Storm activity is forecast to decrease
after 03Z. Additional ISO -SHRA/-TSRA are possible
overnight, with the greatest potential INVOF KINW-KFLG-KSEZ-KPRC
from about 08Z to 13Z. Outside of storms, expect W-SW winds 5-15
kts, becoming light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/18Z through Thursday 13/18Z...Mainly VFR. SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA each day from 19Z-03Z, especially over the higher
terrain. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess
of 40 kts possible in and around +TS. Otherwise, daytime winds W/SW
5-15 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Daily max temps will be
near north to slightly above normal Tuesday, falling to below
normal Wednesday, with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Greatest coverage across the higher terrain.
Stronger storms may contain heavy rain, hail, and gusty/erratic
winds. Outside of storms, expect variable winds around 5-15 mph
Tuesday, becoming west to southwest Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Below normal temperatures with scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms Through at least Friday.
Potential for drying trend starting Saturday. Outside of storms,
expect west to southwest winds around 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Schank
FIRE WEATHER...Schank

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff