884
FXUS65 KFGZ 242239
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
339 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Winds will gradually decrease this afternoon and
evening leading to fair conditions overnight. There is a chance
of light rain and snow showers late Monday and Tuesday near the
Utah border, with the potential for more widespread shower
activity on Wednesday. After that, dry weather is forecast to
return for the remainder of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The weather pattern across Arizona is generally
quiet, with strong zonal flow aloft helping to produce gusty
winds today. Currently seeing gusts 30-50mph across the area,
strongest downwind of the higher terrain. We should see the winds
subside late this afternoon as the gradient decreases with
lighter winds overnight.

Zonal flow will persist across the area for the next 48 hours,
leading to breezy, mild and generally dry conditions. The strong
atmospheric river forecast to impact central California beginning
on Monday (and continuing through Tuesday) will only brush the
northern part of AZ, leading to a chance of showers near the UT
border on Tuesday. Snow levels through Tuesday will remain high
- above 9000 ft.

On Wednesday, the tail end of the atmospheric river will push
into N. AZ as a weak trough and associated cold front move
southward from Utah into AZ. Precipitation chances will increase
on Wednesday north of I-40, with snow levels gradually lowering to
7000` along the Utah border late on Wednesday. By the time the
showers end early on Thursday, snow levels will still be above
7000` along the Western Rim (Flagstaff area), but down to around
5000` near the Utah border. The greatest precipitation totals will
be on the N. Kaibab north of the Grand Canyon, where 0.5 - 1.0"
of precipitation could fall, with 1-4" of snow over the higher
elevations of the N. Rim area.

Thanksgiving Day should be dry, with near normal temperatures over
much of the forecast area - a bit and cooler than normal north of
I-40.

Warming temperatures and expected Friday into next weekend as a
ridge builds over the West Coast. There are some ensemble clusters
that bring moisture (showers) into the area from a weak saggy
trough off the coast of S. California, but the probabilities are
small (<25%) for measurable precipitation at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 25/00Z through Tuesday 26/00Z...MVFR cigs possible
04Z-15Z mainly near KFLG/KCMR/KGCN. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
through the period. SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts before
02Z, with localized gusts up to 45 kts downwind of the high
terrain. Winds becoming VRB 5-10 kts or less overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 26/00Z through Thursday 28/00Z...MVFR conditions
possible after 00Z Tuesday in -SHRA (-SHSN above 7500-8000 feet MSL)
mainly near and north of a KGCN-E91 line, then spreading southward
Tuesday night to around a KIGM-KFLG-KRQE line. S/SW winds 5-10
kts Monday night increasing to 10-20 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Chance for showers mainly
across far northern Arizona, otherwise dry conditions with
seasonable temperatures. Light south/southwest winds on Monday,
increasing to 15-25 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Rain and snow showers possible on
Wednesday mainly north of I-40. Dry conditions then set in on
Thursday before chances for showers return on Friday. West winds 10-
20 mph on Wednesday, becoming variable around 5-10 mph for Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...Meola/Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff