978
FXUS65 KFGZ 070348
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
848 PM MST Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will move through the region bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. High
pressure will build in for Thursday and Friday with warmer and drier
conditions expected. A weak system will pass to the south of the
region over the weekend, with isolated showers possible across
eastern Arizona.

&&

.UPDATE...Some showers and thunderstorms remain over Yavapai
County this evening, with more isolated activity elsewhere.
Showers should continue through the overnight across Yavapai and
portions of the Navajo Nation. Elsewhere, patchy fog and lingering
low clouds can be expected.

Minor updates this evening for latest trends and hi-res guidance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /444 PM MST/...Low pressure has moved well east
of the region but showers on the western periphery continue to
move through the state this afternoon. With limited instability,
thunder has been hard to come by but enough breaks in the clouds
have allowed for some surface heating and a few isolated storms
may continue to develop into this evening. With plenty of low
level moisture across the region, there is the possibility for low
clouds/fog again tonight so slow down on area roads if you
encounter fog when out and about tonight.

While the remnants of this low will push off to the east tonight,
another low will dive down through the Great Basin and bring more
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday.
This low moves out pretty quickly and all shower/storm activity
should cut off Wednesday evening.

A ridge of high pressure will start to make its way into the Desert
Southwest late Wednesday and hangs around for Thursday and Friday.
This will bring drier conditions along with markedly warmer
temperatures than we have had the past several days. Winds will stay
on the lighter side around 5-15 mph each afternoon.

By the weekend, the models keep trying to bring in a weak low from
the southwest. The strength of the ridge appears to be too much and
the low remains off to our south. A tightening of the pressure
gradient should being in some gustier winds but moisture remains
limited. However, the flow from the southeast may be enough to allow
for some showers across our eastern zones for Saturday (along the
eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and Chuska Mountains) and
Sunday (mainly along the AZ/NM border). Majority of the clusters
remain dry so chances still look slim but we will continue to watch
how this unfolds in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 07/00Z through Thursday 08/00Z...Showers
bringing MVFR CIGS and VIS are lingering over much of northern AZ.
Shower activity will become much more isolated after 03-04Z, but
patchy fog bringing brief drops to MVFR-IFR VIS could be possible
through the night. SCT showers bringing periods of MVFR return
after 18Z. Winds are VRB at 10 kts or less, but gusty and erratic
winds are possibly near showers.


OUTLOOK...Thursday 08/00Z through Saturday 10/00Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Winds are NW-N 10-15 kts on Thursday, then NE-E 5-10
kts on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue through Wednesday afternoon, then warmer and
dry on Thursday as temperatures return to seasonal averages. Winds W-
NW 5-10 mph on Wednesday, NE 5-10 mph Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Warm and dry on Friday, slight chance of
high-elevation afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, then
dry again on Sunday. Temperatures are 5-10 degrees above average
each day. Winds NE-E 5-10 mph on Friday, E-SE 5-10 mph Saturday, S-
SW 10-15 mph Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/Meola
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff