481
FXUS65 KFGZ 101934
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1235 PM MST Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of
I-40, will persist into the early evening. Expect drier and more
isolated activity Monday and Tuesday, before activity ramps up
heading toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moisture moved across the southern deserts last night
and this morning, mainly due to a large-scale outflow that emanated
from SE Arizona. This pushed higher dew points up to the Mogollon
Rim, even spilling over the NE edge this morning. This moisture was
somewhat shallow and has begun mixing out and getting shunted back
southward, as steering flow turns northerly into Monday.

However, there was enough in place to form a more active area of
storms today, as compared to yesterday. This is especially true to
the south of I-40, closer to the deeper Monsoonal boundary. We
expect this area to remain active into the evening, before
significant drying from the north develops overnight.

For Monday, much drier conditions, but elevated convection along the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains may still kick off some isolated
cells in the southern reaches of our CWA.

Probably similar on Tuesday, but MCS development over the deserts
will start to complicate where the Monsoonal moisture boundary is
each day.

By the middle to end of the week, the retrograded ridge begins to
beak down, due to another trough developing off the SOCAL coast.
This may induce a few days of deeper moisture surges, somewhere in
the Wednesday-Friday time frame. Confidence is growing on this, but
again, it will be temporary, as the trough is likely to win out.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 10/18Z through Monday 11/18Z...VFR conditions.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible from 19Z to 02Z, mainly south and
east of a KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line. Gusty outflow winds possible in and
around thunderstorms. Daytime winds west at 10-15 kts with gusts
20-25 kts, becoming variable at 5-10 kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 11/18Z through Wednesday 13/18Z...VFR conditions.
isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible from 19Z to 02Z, mainly south and
east of a KPRC-KFLG-KRQE line. Gusty outflow winds possible in and
around thunderstorms. Daytime winds west to northwest at 5-15 kts
on Monday, becoming west on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Hot, breezy, and mainly dry
conditions are expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon, mainly from the Mogollon Rim and south.
Daytime winds west to northwest at 5-15 mph. Gusty outflow winds
possible in and around thunderstorms. Minimum afternoon RH values
single digits along and north of I-40, ranging from 10-20% south.

Wednesday through Friday...Turning cooler with increasing chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Winds west 5-15 mph each
afternoon. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around thunderstorms.
Minimum afternoon RH values 10-25% on Wednesday, rising each day to
near 20-30% by Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff