350
FXUS65 KFGZ 051056
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 AM MST Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected through the weekend. Temperatures continue to climb into
next week, along with gradually returning chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure stretching from northern Mexico into
New Mexico will slowly shift northwestward into Arizona over the
next several days. A weak return of moisture will allow for a
slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon near the White
Mountains, spreading along the Mogollon Rim and other high country
areas by Sunday and continuing into next week. This is looking
like a low-grade monsoon pattern at best, with no real significant
moisture push showing up over the next 7 days. However, the main
story next week is going to be the building heat as the high
pressure system parks over Arizona and strengthens. Ensemble mean
forecasts of 500 mb heights are still 596-599dam from Tuesday
through at least Thursday and possibly beyond. This translates to
highs in the low 90s for the mountains to around 100F for
Prescott/Payson/ Winslow, and near 110F for the Verde Valley. The
lowest elevations of the Grand Canyon are forecast to reach
110-115F. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are likely to
be needed for some of these areas so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 05/12Z through Sunday 06/12Z...VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA 20Z-02Z south of a KSOW-KSJN
line. Daytime winds S-SW 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 06/12Z through Tuesday 08/12Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon, mainly over
higher terrain from KFLG south and east. Daytime winds S-SW 10-20
kts, except gusty/erratic near showers.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Warmer and drier conditions
expected, with only a slight chance of showers and storms in the
White Mountains today, expanding to the Mogollon Rim on Sunday.
Winds south through west 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each
afternoon. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20%.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot, slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon over the higher terrain. West
to southwest winds 10-15 mph each day, along with minimum RH 10-20% .

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff