881
FXUS65 KFGZ 150240
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
740 PM MST Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures expected through Friday with
cooling over the weekend. A strong storm system over the weekend
will bring a chance for showers and gusty southwest winds.

&&

.UPDATE...As the sun sets, these cumulus clouds should evaporate
and the winds will finally calm down to light and variable or
terrain driven. This should allow for a relatively cold mid May
night as temperatures drop 5 to 10 degrees below average.

Come tomorrow a warming trend will begin and temperatures will
start to warm back towards where they should be this time of year.
Winds will be lighter than the last few days as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /428 PM MST/...The last of the very windy days
will come to an end this evening as the low to our north weakens
and moves out of the region.

Tonight through Friday...As the low crosses to the north of the
area, we should see mostly dry conditions. However, there is a bit
of moisture towards the AZ/UT border so an isolated brief shower or
sprinkle may occur through this evening. Winds remain gusty this
afternoon, especially in areas along and north of the higher
terrain. As we head into tonight, the winds will start to drop off
and become light and variable through the overnight hours. Zonal
flow returns on Thursday and continues on Friday, which will bring
much lighter winds and warming conditions. A couple of weak
shortwaves may cross to the north and south of the area during this
time but will not have much of an impact on our forecast area.

Saturday through Monday...A weak low will move across Baja and cross
through extreme southeast Arizona on Saturday. This will help bring
in some slightly cooler air and allow for winds to increase across
the region.  On Sunday, a deep trough will start to develop over the
Pacific Northwest and then dive down through the Great Basin and
into our area. This system will bring colder temperatures, gusty
winds, and even some moisture into the region, which should
translate into some showers and thunderstorms. The depth of the
system will play a role in just how far south we will see
precipitation but as of now it looks like areas along and north of
the I-40 corridor will have the best chances to see a shower or
thunderstorm. Just how fast the moisture moves in will impact
whether we are able to see a few snowflakes down to 7000 ft or not
as there will be plenty of cold air available aloft. The Kaibab
Plateau and the San Francisco Peaks may have the best chances for a
light coating of snow on Sunday. We will also see increasing winds
on Sunday with gusts of 40-50 mph possible. Even with the moisture
moving in, some areas will remain dry and this will raise some fire
weather concerns, especially across central and eastern Arizona.

The system may redevelop on the western side as more energy rotates
down through the Great Basin on Monday. This may allow for some
showers to hang around a bit longer. However, moisture is more
limited with the second system. We should continue to see gusty
winds until the system passes to the east. The active pattern
continues so stayed tuned for more details and these systems get
closer to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 15/00Z through Friday 16/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Light winds overnight will become southwest at 5-15
kts with gusts to 25 kts during the day Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Friday 16/00Z through Sunday 18/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Winds will continue at 10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts on
Friday, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts on Saturday.
Winds generally light in the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Look for dry and
mild weather. Expect west to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph, little
change in minimum RH values and warming temperatures each day.

Saturday through Monday...Turning windy and cooler Saturday, with
areas of critical fire weather conditions possible. Even cooler
Sunday and Monday with chances for rain showers and snow showers.
Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph Saturday.
Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 45 mph on Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart/Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff