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NDC005-027-071-281200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service provides long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December. Depending on the season, the high or low water
      probabilities may be omitted due to their applicability to
       the hydrologic situation.

.OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

Note: This outlook incorporates a daily average of 350 cfs worth of
pumping operations on Devils Lake from May 15th through October 30th.

Precipitation last fall overall (September-November 2024) was above
normal across northern portions of the basin while slightly below
normal in the far south. However, the fall season did end with well
above normal precipitation throughout the month of November. This
allowed soils to be fairly saturated moving into the winter freeze-
up period.

Thus far this winter, slightly above normal precipitation and
snowfall has occurred across far northern portions of the basin while
remaining below normal across the south. Very little snowpack
currently resides across much of the basin with the exception being
in the far northeast.

Climate outlooks continue to indicate a strong signal for below
normal temperatures through the remainder of the winter and into the
spring. There is no strong signal either way for above, below, or
near normal precipitation into the spring.

The next lake exceedance numbers will be issued on Thursday, February
27, 2025.


.Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes Rising Above Given Lake Levels...

  The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
   of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
    years (1949-2019) that were run through the model using the
     precipitation and temperatures for those years during the valid
      period of the outlook.

  Interpretation Aid: There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will rise above 51.0 feet during the valid period and
    a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 52.6 feet.

  Note: The current gage zero datum of the Devils Lake at Creel Bay
gage is 1401.33 feet NAVD88 or 1400.00 feet NGVD29. The gage zero
datum of the Stump Lake at East Stump Lake gage is 1401.21 feet
NAVD88 or 1400.00 feet NGVD29.

           Probabilities for Exceeding Listed Lake Levels

             FROM FEBRUARY 10, 2025 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2025

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Devils Lake.....
  CREEL BAY           50.4   50.5   50.8   51.0   51.4   52.1   52.6
Stump Lake.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE     50.4   50.5   50.8   51.0   51.4   52.1   52.6


.Current and Previous Record High Lake Levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake is 1449.4 feet NGVD29.
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake is 1449.4 feet NGVD29.

 *  USGS daily average height records for Devils Lake at the Creel
    Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on June 27, 2011
                ...1452.05 feet on June 27, 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on June 27, 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on May 9, 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on June 17, 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August 2, 2005
    Note: All previous records are recorded in NGVD29.


.OUTLOOK SCHEDULE...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - Special Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks will be issued
    from mid-February through mid-March.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances will
    be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability information will be provided from October through
    December.

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

These lake level probabilities can be used for risk management as an
 indication of the range of lake levels that may be possible during
 the valid period of the outlook. However, note that it is possible
 that lake levels may still reach above/fall below the 95th and 5th
 percentile values.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the potential lake
 levels for the full outlook period as well as weekly probabilities.
 These graphics, and explanations that help in interpreting them,
 can be found on the NWS Grand Forks NWPS web page by clicking on
 "Rivers and Lakes" above the map at www.weather.gov/fgf.

Wind and wave forecasts for Devils and Stump Lakes are available for
a 7-day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at
www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info.

If you have any questions, please contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on X at @NWSGrandForks.

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      weather.gov/fgf
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