860
FXUS63 KFGF 141742
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1242 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions today for parts of
  northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota due to low RH.

- There is a low (5%) chance for severe weather tonight in
  parts of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Widespread rain late tonight though Friday with a 60 percent
  chance for at least 1 inch of rain over eastern North Dakota
  Wednesday night through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...Synopsis...

The record breaking heat and critical fire weather conditions
over the area since Sunday are on their way out. One more warm
to hot day over eastern ND and northwest and west central MN,
but winds today considerably lighter and RH values not nearly
as low as past days.

Upper low moving from central/northern California into southern
Wyoming by late today will then move north-northeast to be near
Aberdeen SD by 00z Fri. Surface low forms in western Nebraska
and takes nearly the same track as the sfc and upper level low
becomes nearly stacked over southeast ND Thursday night and only
slowly moves east on Friday. System will pull off to the east
this weekend, but clouds and some lingering precip may continue
into Saturday. A brief break between systems, then another upper
low moves from the Rockies into the Plains Monday into the
middle of next week.

...Thunderstorm potential Wednesday night...

Lead shortwave will be coming into western Nebraska by 00z Thu.
Frontal boundary between northwest-north wind and south wind
will remain nearly stationary from about Hallock to just
west/north of Grand Forks to about Carrington ND. As the lead
short wave and eventual surface low form in western Nebraska
late today, do look for a southeast wind to increase ahead of it
from Nebraska thru central SD and into central ND this evening.
A narrow zone of mid to upper 50 dew pts will be in place
roughly from Huron SD to Bismarck ND. MUCAPE though really
struggles to reach 1000 j/kg by late this aftn/evening.
Sufficient instability for a few strong/severe storms within
this higher dew point zone very late today and more so this
evening. During the night a few storms and showers will track
east and northeast into SE ND, but very marginal conditions for
any strong/severe storms due to lack of 0-6km bulk shear and
weak instability.

...Widespread rain Wednesday night through Friday...

Precipitation as the upper low wraps up over the Plains
Thursday, and wobbles into MN by Friday, then exits off into
the Great Lakes by Saturday. All areas will receive rain from
this within the period from Thursday thru Friday night. But all
signs point to areas of the western fcst area and into
central/western ND to get much heavier rainfall from the
deformation zone that develops Thursday into Thursday night.
Probs from the NBM of 1 inch or more of rain remain 60 pct in
eastern ND but drop off quickly farther east to 30 percent at
Bemidji. This is for the 48 hour period 00z Thu to 00z Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions present across all terminals this morning,
continuing through much of the daytime hours today. Some diurnal
cumulus has begun to develop across northwestern Minnesota and
far eastern North Dakota, resulting in some scattered clouds
around 6 to 8 kft. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected
through the day today in the Red River Valley, with sustained
speeds 15 to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts possible at times. KDVL
winds will initially be easterly, shifting northeasterly towards
the second half of the TAF period as a front moves through. KBJI
will generally remain light out of the southeast. Towards the
end of the TAF period, precipitation in the form of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to begin moving into the area from
the west. Chances arrive in KDVL around 00z, expanding east to
KFAR and KGFK around 08z, and blanketing the entire area by 12z.
Ceilings associated with this system will generally remain MVFR,
though brief IFR/LIFR conditions are possible if any
particularly stronger storm passes directly over a terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Less wind today, not as hot temperatures, and higher dew
points/RH values will limit the severity of fire weather
conditions today, as compared to the past 3 days. Near critical
fire weather conditions mainly due to RH near or just less than
25 pct will occur in parts of NW MN and eastern ND this
afternoon. Fire weather concerns diminish after today due to
increased moisture.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Besson
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle