830
FXUS63 KFGF 111440
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
940 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in a one-half inch of snow tonight mainly
  north of Highway 200.

- For this weekend, confidence is high that a majority of the
  region will receive winter impacts. There is a 40 percent
  chance for winter storm impacts. Various scenarios bring
  different hazards ranging from freezing rain to heavy snow to
  blizzard, or some combination.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Cloud cover from central ND has started to move into the Devils
Lake Basin a bit earlier than expected, so increased sky grids
across our western counties. Still looking like most of the
light snow will hold off until late afternoon/evening, so no
changes to POPs for now. Temps still seem on track to rise into
the upper 20s and 30s after a pretty cold start in the single
digits.

UPDATE
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

An area of lower clouds in central and western ND starting to
drift north as winds just above the surface turning south.
Otherwise have some thin cirrus moving in. Light snow moving
into DVL late aftn and spreading east is still looking good
based on 06z NAM/GFS and latest HRRR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...Synopsis...

Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement thru the period.
Zonal flow along the Canadian border today-Thursday then a
strong Colorado surface low and 500 mb lifts northeast to the
west of a building east coast ridge. Impacts from this system
will be widespread and highly variable across the region,
ranging from rain and thunderstorm chances Friday late and
Friday evening in RRV and NW MN then ice and snow chances
spreading east Friday overnight into Saturday. Strong winds as
well,  focused in eastern ND.

...Potential Winter Storm this Weekend...

Nearly all ensemble members remain in very good agreement (>90%)
in developing a surface in western Kansas Friday and taking it
northeast to southern Minnesota Saturday morning. Then Saturday
daytime motion slows down as low slowly weakens and likely
occludes before it moves north-northeast toward Thunder Bay
Ontario. This system will be all weather hazards to the area.
Initially very warm airmass will be pumped into E ND and MN
Friday...with the focus for higher dew pts (45-50) into eastern
ND and northwest and west central MN Thursday night and Friday.
Elevated CAPE does spread north as well with an 850 mb jet of
40kts bringing a couple hundred MUCAPE into E ND and NW MN as
early as 12z Fri and with MUCAPE peaking around 500-700 j/kg in
central MN 00z Saturday. So t-storm chances will be present
Friday into Friday evening...esp Red River valley and Minnesota.
Low at that time looks to be moving into eastern Nebraska Friday
evening. Overnight as low moves NNE into SW MN colder air will
work eastward on the west side of this system likely
transitioning any rain over to freezing rain and snow overnight
Friday night thru E ND and western MN.   s low moves more into
southwest into central MN Saturday colder air will progress east
and turn any icing to snow.

What remains highly uncertain is the temperature profiles Friday
night in terms of amount of freezing rain vs snow. NBM probs
indicate 30 pct chance for more than 0.10 inch of freeing rain
in the Red River valley and NW MN. Turn over to snow timing is
crucial for amounts and also how much moisture does indeed work
west into the cold air, as this where model variability is quite
high. Winds do look quite strong with potential for wind gusts
50+ mph in parts of E ND or RRV Saturday.

Main takeaway at this point is that predictability is
increasing for winter storm impacts on Friday night into
Saturday, but various scenarios still exist.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Anticipate mainly VFR conditions thru tonight. One exception may
be DVL which is close to an expanding area of MVFR clouds in
central ND. Also with light snow moving east into DVL late today
and spreading east some vsby reductions were put in at 5SM at
KDVL but kept P6SM at GFK/TVF. Looks like mid clouds with wave.
That is of course unless the MVFR clouds in western half of ND
start to spread east. Light winds today....light northerly to
start turning light south or southeast as the day progresses
from west to east.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle