984
FXUS63 KFGF 280431
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1131 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with rain
  chances returning Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging continues over the Rockies and Plains, with some
weak embedded shortwaves coming over top of the ridge today and
tomorrow. The higher heights will push further north on
Wednesday, ahead of a stronger shortwave coming over top of the
ridge on Thursday. After a brief period of northwesterly flow,
upper ridging builds back into the region for the weekend. Many
of the ensemble members have a stronger trough starting to track
along the international border on Monday, bringing us
southwesterly flow aloft. However, a cluster of around 35
percent of the long range ensemble members keep the 588dm meter
nosing up into ND and the troughing much less impressive. At
this point, a more active pattern and cooler temperatures look
like they will at least hold off until next week.

...Heat wave continuing and rain chances mid-week...

One of the weak embedded shortwaves coming over the top of the
ridge has started to produce some showers and thunderstorms in
or near north central ND. SPC meso page has decent 1000 to 1500
J/kg of ML CAPE and shear around 40 kts, but with very weak
forcing, and extremely warm mid-level temps, the cells that are
developing are struggling. CAMs have that trend continuing with
the next weak shortwave arriving later this evening, and this
seems reasonable. Our northwestern counties could see a few
sprinkles this afternoon and evening, but substantial
precipitation will hold off until Wednesday/Thursday as NBM
probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of rain finally
rise above 50 percent. ECMWF EFI continues to show a signal for
heat continuing through the weekend, and NBM probabilities for
temperatures over 95 degrees are over 70 percent for Wednesday.
Likely will need heat headlines of some sort again Wednesday so
will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Wildfire smoke continues to move through the region mainly aloft
(above 10kft agl). Higher seasonal low level moisture is in
place, and with light winds and at least some areas of clearing
light ground fog is already beginning to form (mainly in
northeast ND). Guidance favors an expansion in fog over
northeast ND and parts of northwest/north central MN and impacts
to visibility and ceilings become more likely at KDVL and KBJI
after 08-10Z through 14Z (IFR to MVFR with a chance to LIFR).
This is the type of fog/pattern where fog will tend to vary
conditions wildly, and with a less consistent signal elsewhere I
left mention out of KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF for now.

Surface winds should remain under 10kt through the TAF period,
with highly variable wind directions as surface high pressure
and several weak boundaries move through eastern ND and
northwest MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR