124
FXUS63 KFGF 082113
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
413 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon in the
  Red River Valley into northwest and west-central Minnesota

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...Synopsis...

Current water vapor imagery this afternoon shows large upper
ridging over the central CONUS/CAN, with highly amplified upper
troughing in western CAN into the PacNW oriented in a positively
tilted fashion. Dry conditions and gusty winds are driving near
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon (more details
below). Winds will lessen as we enter the evening, but a breeze
still lingers through the overnight. This along with increasing
temperatures aloft will keep temperatures above freezing
tonight.

Ensemble guidance strongly suggests a branch of the western
upper trough breaks away Thu/Fri moving through SK, southern
MB, and into western ON while strengthening. This will allow a
cold front to move through the region briefly decreasing
temperatures, and ushering in breezy winds. A lack of moisture
content will keep this cold frontal passage dry.

Quickly behind the now departing upper trough, upper ridging
builds into the central CONUS as the southern branch of the
upper trough stalls and gradually deepens near the PacNW. This
promotes southwest flow aloft while driving the redevelopment
of upper ridging over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, in
turn promoting warming trend in temperatures and breezy
conditions early this weekend.

Getting into late weekend and early next week, ensemble guidance
then strongly suggests the PacNW upper trough breaks
east/northeast perhaps in a rather stout and progressive
fashion. This in turn will increase chance for precipitation, as
well as gusty winds. Overall moisture content/instability will
be lacking for robust thunderstorm development, however
sufficient moisture and strong forcing should still promote
areas of showers and perhaps weak thunderstorms. While
temperatures on the western flanks of this trough will be cold
enough to promote snow, nearly all guidance keeps the track of
associated low pressure far enough west to keep snow chances
into MT and perhaps western ND.

While this is forecast to be a stout shortwave trough passage,
ensemble guidance also strongly suggests upper ridging
redevelops behind this wave into next week. While predictability
degrades thereafter, this type of pattern would still promote
near to above average temperatures.

...Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon...

Relative humidity values are dipping into the low 20s and even
upper teens are occurring within portions of the Red River
Valley into northwest and west-central Minnesota. This along
with winds 10-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph (highest in Red River
Valley) for the afternoon will promote increased potential for
rapid spread of wildfires. While fuels are not overly conducive
for rapid wildfire movement, they are starting to cure to a
point where messaging is prudent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period at
all sites.

However, there will be impact from LLWS between 01Z-12Z tonight
for all sites. Winds rapidly increase and veer out of the
southwest in the low levels to 40kt around 2kft.

Additionally, gusty south-southeast winds to 27kt will impact
KDVL through 00Z. Other locations will also see south-southeast
winds through 00Z between 10-20kt.

There is very little chance for fog (less than 2%) given dry
conditions and a lingering breeze through the overnight hours.

Thursday will start with breezy south-southwesterly winds,
lessening into the afternoon as a front approaches.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ