216
FXUS63 KFGF 160945
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
445 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat impacts are expected to continue across portions of the
  area through the remainder of this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The only change to the forecast as of early this morning is from
the Storm Prediction Center, as a level 1 out of 5 risk for
severe thunderstorms has been issued for portions of
northeastern ND and northwestern MN, covering this afternoon and
evening. A shortwave will propagate along the northern axis of
the ridge over southern Canada this afternoon. As it pushes
eastward closer to this FA, forcing may be sufficient for a
storm or two to develop during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Analyzing soundings, there is a wide envelope in
potential atmospheric profiles. In the Devils Lake Basin, where
morning cloud cover should clear earlier, parcels appear to be
surface based. However, in northwestern MN, there may be less
atmospheric recovery. In addition, storms likely wont reach
there until later (maybe not until after sunset). This leaves
instability and parcels potentially elevated. Either way, shear
profiles in both locations do support supercells, with hail as
a primary threat. In addition, one cannot rule out wind with
drier low levels, especially further west. What seems to be the
bigger question is if and when storms develop. Some CAMs depict
storms developing west of Devils Lake (NAM, 00z HRRR) during the
late afternoon. These CAMs seem to have a bit stronger wave and
a more pronounced surface low. Conversely, other CAMs hold off
development until the wave is further east, or develop nothing
at all (RRFS, 06z HRRR). The bottom line is that if we can get a
storm or two to develop, especially earlier in the day further
west, it will bear watching. Hopefully by late morning a clearer
picture will unfold regarding convective initiation and
eventual evolution based on cloud cover, wave location and
surface obs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...Synopsis...

Anomalously strong upper ridge remains firmly in place over the
Northern Plains today through Friday. At the surface, stationary
front remains draped west-east across generally the I-94
corridor. South of this front, higher dew points and
temperatures reside, whereas north of the front offers a
reprieve from recent heat aided by lower temperatures and dew
points along with some cloud cover. Heat impacts remain in
southeast ND and west-central MN today.

Back aloft, two or more low amplitude and weak shortwave
impulses moving through the crest of the ridge will bring low
chance for showers tonight near the international border, as
well as a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Thursday into early Friday, again near the international
border. A few storms may be strong to severe late Thursday into
early Friday capable of producing hail and gusty winds. While
not overly confident in this severe potential, there is enough
instability and shear that could help organize storms for hail
potential, along with dry air in the lower levels for strong
downdrafts leading to gusty winds. While most locations will
likely not see rainfall, those that do can anticipate a wetting
rain, with locally soaking rainfall of at least 1 inch possible,
too - again, favored to occur within northeast ND into northwest
MN.

This will also help draw back north the higher dew points and
temperatures, continuing heat impacts in at least southeast ND
and west-central MN, perhaps further north depending on how far
north the front makes it.

Near the front is easterly flow, which will effectively draw in
more wildfire smoke toward our region. Added smoke into the
forecast, with confidence high enough in degraded air quality
starting as early as today, lasting through at least Friday.
Westerly low level flow by Saturday may help push smoke back
out of our area, so this bout of smoke is likely to be shorter
duration in the near term.

Into the weekend, the strong upper ridge will build westward
into the Four Corners region by this weekend. This will allow
another yet bout of hot temperatures to spread into the Dakotas,
with high temperatures well into the 90s. This along with likely
higher dew points will continue potential for heat impacts
within our region through Sunday. Confidence is not high in
exact location of this potential, but areas that have been
experiencing current wave of heat impacts within southeast ND
and west-central MN hold relatively higher chances at seeing
these impacts. If this occurs, this would be one of the longest
stretches of at least 90F temperatures in southeast ND and
west-central MN.

Ensemble guidance strongly favors a (not-weak) cold front to
move through Monday or Tuesday. This would effectively end the
current heat wave impacting our region. This also would offer
chance for showers and storms, although details on strength and
coverage remain uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas of near surface smoke have worked into portions of the
area tonight, bringing periods of reduced visibility, mainly to
KFAR. Guidance continues to bring wildfire smoke into the area
during the early morning hours, with improvements expected
around or just after sunrise. Added a mention of smoke to most
sites except KDVL. Winds remain generally light through the
overnight before increasing late Thursday morning. Wildfire
smoke could remain in the mid to upper levels through much of
the day on Thursday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ024-028>030-
     038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Lynch