815
FXUS63 KFGF 031138
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red flag conditions are expected to develop in portions of
  eastern North Dakota this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...Synopsis...

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a surface low around
Cavalier/Pembina sliding east to southeast. Ahead of this, a
swath of warm air advection is contributing to high based
showers, contributing to brief raindrops and variable wind
directions, but shouldn`t amount to much more as instability is
fairly weak. An attached cold front is pushing down from the
northwest right now and will shift winds to northwesterly late
this afternoon through the evening hours. In its wake, perpetual
northwesterly flow will exist across much of the Northern
Plains. With this will be ebbs and flows in the mean
temperatures, bringing temperatures down early next week but
with periodic rises and falls through the end of the period.
Perturbations within the flow are likely to bring precipitation
to the area, the first of which looks to be Sunday night into
Monday. Precipitation amounts will likely be fairly light
considering dry profiles. Additional chances for critical fire
weather conditions arise late week as temperatures rebound and
moisture return continues to be limited thanks to large scale
upstream ridging.

...FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire conditions are likely tomorrow afternoon. ERC
Percentiles in the 95-97th percentile and HRB remaining at 30
indicate primed fuels for rapid fire spread. Wind speeds are
likely to be there with a weak jet max crossing through, with
westerly sustained winds tomorrow afternoon between 20-25 mph,
with occasional gusts to 40 mph. The confluence of these two
conditions brings likely marginal Red Flag conditions in the
Devils Lake Basin as that is the location of the jet max
tomorrow afternoon when RH values are the lowest. The main
uncertainty will be the relative humidity getting low enough to
hit criteria as the cold front today will increase dewpoints to
the 30s. This means that temperatures need to rise into the low
70s at least to get to below 30%. Relatively solid thermal
ridging at 925 and 850mb will be centered over eastern North
Dakota, which likely will allow temperatures to rise into the
mid to upper 60s in that area. Once again, the Devils Lake Basin
is where the ridge axis intersects, so this will be the
greatest area for 70+ temperatures. For these reasons, a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for the Devils Lake Basin, with
potential expansion possible if the wind field expands and the
temperature field is warmer across eastern North Dakota.
Northwest Minnesota looks to avoid the potential for Red Flag
conditions at this time as the thermal ridge should remain
upstream until after 00z tomorrow.

Additional chances for critical fire weather conditions arise
late next week. Perpetual northwesterly flow continues to
contribute to downsloping and dry airmasses over our region, so
days with increasing temperatures bring an increased risk for
critical fire conditions. The main question marks will be wind
speeds which do appear likely late next week with a few clippers
traversing the Canadian Prairies and whether fuel status will
remain critical. While ERC percentiles are largely high, HRB is
beginning to respond to green-up, so fire spread may become
inhibited. At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to have the
greatest likelihood for Red Flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions with clear skies giving way to some high and mid
clouds later in the period. Winds that are currently
northwesterly under 10 kts will pick up out of the west, with
some gusts over 30kts by this afternoon. Winds will decrease a
bit around sunset, then turn back to the northwest by the end of
the period as a cold front comes through. Some low level wind
shear overnight at a couple of the airports as the front comes
down, and a few rain showers could develop. For now just kept
Prob30 groups at KGFK and KTVF, and will refine precipitation
chances later.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...JR