130
FXUS63 KFGF 151132
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
532 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is forecast again tonight into Sunday morning. Areas of
  dense fog are most likely along the Red River Valley in
  eastern North Dakota and across northwest Minnesota.

- Wintry mix north of Highway 2 corridor may bring a light glaze
  of ice Sunday afternoon into evening. This may impact travel
  conditions, holding a 50% chance for advisory level impacts.

- Accumulating snow of at least 4 inches Tuesday evening into
  Thursday are forecast. At least advisory level impacts are
  expected, with a 50% chance for warning level impacts.

- Above average temperatures remain forecast this weekend into
  next week. This will continue to erode existing snowpack, with
  a low chance for hydrological impacts in the southern Red
  River basin.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Extended the dense fog advisory further south to include all of
west central Minnesota. Still seeing generally widespread fog
through the northern and central Red River Valley, northwest
Minnesota as well.

UPDATE
Issued at 405 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Updated key messages to increase the probability for warning
impacts to 50 percent. Confidence is increasing for the Tuesday
through Thursday system as ensemble spread is generally on the
decrease.

Made slight changes to fog timing this morning as many areas
have now saturated, with widespread visibility reductions as low
as 1/4 mile. The only area seeing slight improvements is the
Devils Lake region; however, intermittent visibility reductions
remain possible through mid morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Dense fog has been forming in locations where mid level clouds
have been clearing including the Sheyenne River Valley from
Cooperstown to Valley City and the far southern RRV
(Richland/Wilkin Counties). It has been slower to expand in the
north but once those mid level clouds clear we should see
similar trends. Eventually a shift and increase in winds may
help improve conditions in the west and south, but for now an
expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory was warranted.

UPDATE
Issued at 631 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A small area of dense fog already developed in the eastern RRV
of northwest MN. Surface high pressure building from the north
will result in a period of very light winds and while mid level
clouds could complicate radiational conditions, moisture
pooling along a stalled frontal zone south of the surface high
should support expanding dense fog in northeast ND and northwest
MN. This is reflected in all current CAMs, NBM, and GLAMP
trends. West and south of this frontal zone the signal is a bit
less consistent and confidence lower. I went ahead and issue a
Dense Fog Advisory for northeast ND down to Cass county in ND
and northwest MN generally north of US 10 as this aligns with
the locations north of the frontal zone tonight into Sunday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...Synopsis...

Aloft, split flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS,
with Northern Plains/Upper Midwest regions under the influence
of northern branch positioned in a quasi-ridge/zonal pattern.
This will allow above average temperatures, as well transient
chances for light wintry mix through the weekend. Fog will also
be prevalent under this pattern.

Next week, upper troughing deepens over the Pacific Coast and
Intermountain West, with shallow upper ridging over the
Southeast and Mississippi River Valley. This will promote
southwesterly flow aloft over the Dakotas and Minnesota,
promoting a more active precipitation pattern as well as
continuing above average temperatures. One or more stronger,
consolidated waves of energy emanating out of the West will
move through the Dakotas and Minnesota between Tuesday and
Thursday, bringing rain and accumulating snow. This will impact
travel conditions across the region, mainly from accumulating
snow and reduced visibility from heavy snow rates. Uncertainty
exists in severity and location of impacts due to spread in
ensemble guidance this far extended into the window of
predictability.

Above average temperatures and potential for rainfall may impact
tributaries in the southern Red River basin, while also eroding
existing snowpack.

...Fog tonight into Sunday morning...

There are some local areas where fog lingers in portions of
northwest Minnesota this afternoon. This lends some credence
into a re-blossoming of fog across the area tonight into Sunday
morning. While confidence is high in dense fog becoming again
present in our area, confidence is low in exactly where and
when this will happen. Northwest Minnesota hold relatively
highest chance for dense fog at around 60% based on HREF, which
seems reasonable. However, all locations within the region are
liable to seeing dense fog considering recently wet/saturated
topsoil via snowmelt, very weak flow in the lowest layer, and
cool temperatures. While not directly tied to fog, there may be
slick spots from frost juxtaposed with dense fog, making for
potentially hazardous travel.

...Wintry mix Sunday afternoon and night...

A compact, low amplitude mid level wave is forecast to progress
west to east rather quickly along the international border
Sunday and Sunday night. While the wave is forecast to be
compact/small in spatial extent, guidance suggests it has a
rather focused area for moderately strong ascent via locally
strong low level warm air advection, low level convergence, and
vorticity advection. While there will be some low level dry air
to overcome, this focused ascent will help saturate the column.
Additionally, this focused ascent/low level convergence will
create transient strong frontogenesis, further increasing
confidence in enough forcing to generate heavy enough precip
aloft to overcome dry air.

Initially mild temperatures feeding into the wave will promote
precipitation to fall as rain, with eventual transition to
rain/freezing rain/snow mix as the temperature profile flirts
around the freezing line in the lowest layer.

Freezing rain would allow for potential ice accumulations
up to a glaze of ice. Forecast surface temperature guidance
suggests best chance for icing and associated impacts would be
after sunset Sunday. With as little as a glaze of ice capable of
creating hazardous travel conditions on untreated surfaces,
there is a 50% chance for advisory-level impacts north of
Highway 2 corridor Sunday afternoon into evening.

...Snow impacts next Tuesday into Thursday...

Ensemble guidance is coming into general agreement in the
broader synoptic evolution of a negatively tiled upper trough
moving through the Dakotas and Minnesota Tuesday into Thursday.
The expected orientation of the wave is important in our
expectations of how precipitation will evolve in our area.

In general, a negatively tilted trough progression commonly
induces rich moisture to feed into the trough circulation in a
TROWAL-like fashion - a feature that commonly focuses moisture
into strong forcing for ascent. This is expected to occur with
the upcoming trough.

As of now, the favored scenario between ensemble suites noses
the TROWAL into eastern ND and northern MN late Tuesday into
early Wednesday. Another aspect most ensemble guidance agrees
upon is seasonably high instability feeding into the TROWAL/mid
level circulation. The TROWAL and instability alone will induce
increased precipitation rates, either in the form of heavy snow
or moderate rain rates. This TROWAL, rich moisture content, and
relatively mild temperatures within the column will promote
heavy, wet-type snow, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Despite a lack of downstream upper ridging to block the trough`s
forward progression, the upstream upper trough in the West re-
deepens, lingering the wave in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
into Thursday. This and the orientation of the upper wave will
promote an inverted trough to extend well north/west of the
trough. This means after the main energy of the trough moves
east of our area, we will continue to see falling snow through
much of Thursday, just relatively lighter rates of snow compared
to late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Initially mild, above average temperatures ahead of the wave
Tuesday will promote some of its precipitation to fall as rain
before mixing with and eventually fully transitioning to snow.
However, where and when this occurs exactly is a point of
uncertainty. Areas further north toward the international
border hold higher chances of seeing mostly snow compared to
areas further south where rain is expected before transitioning
to snow. Depending on where and how heavy rain may be, this
could impact still ice covered tributaries in the southern Red
River basin (more on this below).

Additionally, initially mild temperatures should serve to
initially melt/compact snow upon contact. However, how long or
where this will occur remains uncertain.

The points of uncertainty previously discussed lowers
confidence in snow accumulations, which lowers confidence in
location and severity of impacts. There is greater than 80%
chance for at least 4 inches of snow generally north of US
Highway 2 corridor; however, there is generally 20% chance for
seeing between 6-9 inches of snow - again due to expected
melting/compaction and lowered snow liquid ratios 10:1 or less
during period of heaviest precipitation rates late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Despite uncertainty in snow accumulation amounts, likely heavy
snow rates will bring reduced visibility, perhaps less than
quarter mile at times.

At this time, impacts from blowing snow do not look to be a main
driver of impacts. This is due to a lack of stronger cold air
advection, relatively weak to moderate pressure gradient, weak
pressure rises, and relatively mild temperatures to drive
blowing snow impacts. Still, with breezy winds coinciding with
falling snow Thursday, we could see blowing snow linger impacts
to travel conditions.

Ultimately, reasonable expected outcome with this event will be
at least advisory-level impacts from accumulating snow and
greatly reduced visibility from heavy snow rates. There is
still a 20% chance for seeing warning-type impacts with between
6-9 inches of snow accumulation still possible in our area.

...Above average temperatures; potential hydrological
impacts...

Temperatures well above freezing during the day are forecast
through the weekend into next week. Some locations in southeast
ND are forecast to reach well into the 50s, perhaps some other
locations in forested areas of west-central MN and western Red
River Valley may also experience this degree of warmth Sunday.

This will continue to erode the existing snowpack. With the
forecast and recent above freezing temperatures, some
tributaries in the southern Red River basin are already
responding by gradual rise in river levels. Webcams of river ice
also show swelling of river ice as well as liquid water on top
of ice (namely Bois De Sioux near Doran MN).

While the snow water equivalent in the existing snowpack is not
expected to drive hydrological impacts alone, impacts may ensue
should sufficiently high enough rain fall on these same areas
with this upcoming precipitation Tuesday into Thursday.
River level guidance from HEFS in some areas like the southern
Red River, and tributaries in southeast ND and west-central MN,
there is around a 10% chance for river levels to reach into
Minor flood stage by late next week. Again, this impact is
contingent upon these areas receiving rain amounts exceeding
half an inch, received in a short amount of time - of which most
of this rainfall will turn to runoff due to seasonable frost
layer still present in area soils.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Most locations are seeing IFR to LIFR conditions this morning
with dense fog having overspread many areas. KDVL is currently
VFR; however, there may be periodic visibility reductions in the
vicinity, especially to the east. Look for slow improvement
after about 15Z and more rapid improvement by 18Z. Looking into
the afternoon and evening, a weak system will bring a chance of
rain and a rain/snow mix to parts of the area, mainly along and
north of Highway 2. This could bring a 30 percent chance of
light freezing rain to KDVL, KGFK, and KTVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ007-008-
     016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch