896
FXUS63 KFGF 271720
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with rain
  chances returning Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...Synopsis...

Expansive ridging remains dominate over the western/central
CONUS this Sunday afternoon. Our region is under its
northeastern most influence. Over the top of the ridge, a ridge
riding wave is passing to our north and east. This brings a
highly conditional threat for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over portions of northwestern MN.
Persistent heat will continue into this week as ridging
remains present in some form.

...Heat Continues...

Today is another hot day. Temperatures have climbed into the
mid/upper 90s in the central and southern Red River Valley, and are
not far behind across much of the rest of the FA. Heat
headlines are in effect this afternoon, with the hottest
conditions expected in the central/southern Red River Valley.
As we go through the work week, ridging will remain in control
over the western/central US, although there are some
disagreements in its magnitude and exactly how far eastward its
axis sets up. Therefore, temperatures will remain above average,
with afternoon highs in the 90s across much of the FA until at
least midweek. Thereafter, depending on the ridges
amplitude/placement, temperatures will either slightly cool into
the 80s, or remain elevated into the 90s. It is during this
late week period NBM temperature spreads start to increase,
showcasing well ensemble model disagreement surrounding the
ridge.

...Severe Storms Today...

A persistent WAA regime has been in place over northwestern MN this
morning, allowing for storms to develop earlier today. However,
low level flow has been weakening into the early afternoon.
There is indication within some model guidance that flow will
increase slightly again later today during the evening hours as
a shortwave rounds the ridge. This may be enough forcing to get
a storm or two to develop. If a storm can form, effective shear
of over 40 knots and ample instability will help organize
storms, with supercells capable of severe hail being the primary
threat. It will be very difficult to get a storm to form
further south in west central MN, as this area is far from any
forcing and fighting a stout cap.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Some MVFR clouds have formed along a boundary close to the Red
River Valley, with some MVFR coverage extending into KTVF. That
should scatter out in the next hour or two, all sites going VFR
with mainly high clouds and some high level smoke coming in
from the west. Some limited surface smoke possible at KDVL but
at this point kept visibility no lower than 6 miles. Light
northwest winds around 10 kts will become light and variable
this evening, eventually picking up out of the south at KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...JR