877
FXUS63 KFGF 091728
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&


UPDATE
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Clouds remain across northwest and west central Minnesota yet
this morning helping to prevent good mixing and keeping RH above
40 percent while winds remain somewhat breezy at 10-15 mph and
gusting 20-25 mph. As the cold front sweeps through this evening
winds dropping and RH rising above 50 percent area wide yielding
a low fire concern compared to prior days. Have tweaked winds
slightly for timing and dewpoints to account for reduced mixing.

UPDATE
Issued at 655 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Did up sky cover over that NBM had as it was too low and too
slow in moving clouds east. As we approach 12z majority of the
clouds are now east of the Red River. No other chances as would
expect cloud cover increases eastward. Blended in some consshort
sky into NBM to get better sky this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...Synopsis...

850-700 mb warm advection occurring over the RRV this morning
with moisture advection as well as PWATs increase to 0.8 inch.
Band of mid clouds associated with this moving thru the RRV,
mainly south, at 08z. As we go thru today moisture 850-700 mb
layer to increase eastward with forecast expansion of clouds
thru the eastern fcst area thru the day. South wind over the
area 10-20 mph for most, but locally gusts 25 mph this morning
with highest winds 850 mb over the RRV and western MN thru 18z.

500 mb low dropping southeast into north central Manitoba to
near Thunder Bay Ontario by 12z Fri. With increasing moisture at
850 mb shower chances will increase until the moisture meets up
with the upper low in eastern, northeast MN into Ontario tonight.

Cold front will move through this evening as the upper low
tracks southeast with brief cold advection. Highs today mid 60s
to low 70s with upper 50s/low 60s Friday.

Fire weather concerns are less today. Winds in MN fcst area
10-20 mph, gusty this morning/midday but a bit less in the
afternoon But with the south wind dew points increase today so
RH values stay 45 to 50 percent values on the low end in NW/WC
MN. Winds not quite strong enough to override the significantly
higher RH values to necessitate issuance of a SPS for near
critical fire weather in MN.

Over the weekend there will be a large upper trough moving
eastward over the western half of the US and Canada. One lead
short wave is forecast to lift northeast from Wyoming, western
SD into eastern ND/northwest MN 06z Sun period. 850 mb jet is
quite strong 45-50 kts bringing in increased moisture with PWATS
nearly 1.50 inch 00z-12z Sun. Therefore models are correct in
indicating an expanding area of showers and possibly a few
t-storms into the RRV and western MN Saturday night. Pattern
also suggests the formation of a strong low pressure system from
eastern Montana to near the ND/MB/SK border region Sunday
morning. This will lift north-northeast Sunday. Dry slot aloft
will be over central into E ND Sunday, at least the morning,
but as 850 mb cold front, surface cold moves east Sunday aftn
and evening look for a period of increased shower chances before
drier air moves in and rain chances end Sunday overnight. Breezy
to windy and cooler conditions move in Sun night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail at most sites this afternoon and through
much of the TAF period. Low to mid level cloud cover continues
to move slowly across portions of southeast North Dakota and
west central and northwest Minnesota. Upstream observations show
cloud bases nearing MVFR levels in some places, thus the mention
of brief MVFR ceilings is is justified at this time, especially
at KTVF, KBJI, and KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Lynch