118
FXUS63 KFGF 050321
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1021 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Organized convection will push eastward over the next few hours
in northwest Minnesota and exit our area. Some lingering
diurnally driven convection continues in the Devils Lake Basin,
but should die out as the sun sets. Clouds will continue to
linger ahead of the main cold front sweeping through but weather
impacts overnight should be only tied to any lingering lightning
that may arise over the next three hours. Quiet weather will
prevail tomorrow and Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...Synopsis...
As the boundary in place across the forecast area continues to
move south and east across ND and MN overnight, storms will
continue to develop along and near the boundary. Both training
of cell along the boundary, and slower storm movement with deep
layer moisture will contribute to the heavy rain potential with
the storms as the system moves through the area this
evening/overnight. The boundary will move east of the area into
the weekend with high pressure building in from the north
allowing for quieter and cooler conditions Saturday into
Sunday.


...Severe Potential This Evening...
Storms continue to form along a boundary oriented from
southeast to northeast across the forecast area with high
instabilty. Deep layer shear strong in far northeastern portions
of the area where some strong cells developed earlier this
afternoon. Shear a bit less in the area of storm development
further south and west across southeast ND and this is evident
in the more storm clusters forming across the area. Therefore
with the more linear/cluster storm development and large DCAPE
in place, wind threat remains the larger severe threat for the
southern portion of the forecast area along with the heavy rain
threat. In the northern storms across MN, expect more the
wind/hail threat to continue with the stronger storms where deep
layer shear remains more robust.

...Heavy Rain This Evening...
As 12Z CAMs/HREF continue to show the signal for the
horizontally orientated/back- building linear complex where
5-15kt corfidi vectors support backbuilding along the northern
theta-e gradient/frontal zone. The upper end of guidance
supports PWATs exceeding the 95-99th percentile and considering
the reservoir of high instability/deep warm soundings would
increase the potential for thunderstorms to produce greater than
1"/hr rates. Antecedent soil conditions are more hit or miss in
rural parts of the region due to the dry nature of the summer
and soils in many areas, so it will likely take 3-6" rainfall
over a short enough duration to increase the chance for impacts
outside of poor drainage areas.

Highest probs for 1"+/hr rates from Valley City to Baudette and
to the southeast of that axis. Confidence has increased enough
to issue the Flood Watch for excessive runoff/flash flood
potential focused on the locations that have the best potential
to see higher durations of heavier rates from 4PM through 1AM
tonight.

...Heat Impacts...
Most sites across the area into the upper 80s to low to mid 90s
with dewpoints into the low to mid 70s. This has heat index
values into the 100 to 105 range. The heat and humidity combines
to push for periods of high and extreme heat impacts through
early evening periods to storms moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish across our area over the
first few hours of the TAF period. Variable wind gusts to 30
knots are possible with any thunderstorms that manage to impact
TAF sites. MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible ahead of a cold
front that is sagging southward this evening. As this front
pushes through, expect ceilings to gradually rise to VFR and
clear out with increasing northerly winds. Wind gusts will
approach 20 to 30 knots at times, particularly in the afternoon
and at GFK/FAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...Perroux