660
FXUS63 KFGF 171937
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances return tonight into Friday, however
  the next threat for strong to severe storms is not expected
  until late Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...Synopsis...

Broad troughing over southern Canada and the northern CONUS,
with various weak shortwaves coming through the base of it. One
such shortwave will move through the Northern Plains later
tonight, then off into MN Friday. Weak upper ridging starts
over the Western Plains Friday night and into Saturday. The
ridge moves east on Sunday, with flow becoming more
west-southwesterly into the early part of the work week. Pattern
seems a bit more active with various shortwaves moving through
the west to southwesterly flow, although exact timing of such
minor shortwaves is impossible to tell at this point.

...Shower/thunderstorm chances tonight and possible severe
impacts late Sunday into Tuesday...

Fair decent shortwave coming through tonight into tomorrow
morning, but very little instability to work with as it comes
through. Some of the models have some 100-500 J/kg of elevated
CAPE during the morning hours, so lightning will be possible but
severe chances look low. By the time there is enough
destabilization over southeastern ND into west central MN, the
main shortwave will be off to the east and our counties in the
area of subsidence. HREF has very little in the way of updraft
helicity tracks for the tonight into Friday period. Better
chances for severe late in the weekend into early next week as
flow turns more southwesterly. The NBM has probability of over
2000 J/kg surface based CAPE up around 70 percent in portions of
southeastern ND, and there should be around 30-40 kts of shear.
The main question will be forcing and timing of various weak
shortwaves that could set thunderstorms off. With predictability
low, will hold off on any messaging for now for severe.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Cumulus clouds developing over most of the forecast area, but
VFR at around 5000-6000 ft when there is enough to form a
ceiling. Winds will remain light and variable through the
afternoon. This should continue through the evening then winds
pick up out of the southeast and we lose some cu, but mid and
high clouds will be increasing ahead of a weak shortwave. Some
showers at most TAF sites during the 06 to 15Z time frame.
Mostly VFR but some MVFR ceilings will move in behind the rain
showers for the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR