518
FXUS63 KFGF 191958
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for hazardous weather is low through the next
  seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery reveals a passing mid level trough moving
east across south-central Canada, amid an upper jet extending
out of the Pacific Northwest across the southern Canadian
Provinces, and generally zonal flow aloft over the Northern
Plains. At the surface, yesterday`s cold front is stalling to
the west and is starting to wash itself out in the absence of
appreciable mid- upper forcing aloft.

Increasing pressure gradient over North Dakota is being noted as
the aforementioned mid trough passes nearby, bringing gusty
winds in the Devils Lake basin this afternoon. This pressure
gradient will slide east over our area this evening, helping
maintain a steady breeze tonight across the area and greatly
limiting potential for fog in spite of mostly clear skies.

Upper ridging is forecast to extend into the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday helping bring warming trend
back to the region, of which are forecast to bring temperatures
into the low 80s in the southern Red River Valley where low 80s.

Dry air fed out of the western Dakotas into our area may overlap
with gusty winds closer to the international border Sunday
afternoon to bring a 30% chance of seeing near critical fire
weather conditions between the US Highway 2 corridor and I-94
corridor.

Ensemble guidance brings a cold front through the region Tuesday
along with a chance of rain. At this time, light rain with
amounts less than 0.25 inches are favored; although, there is a
cluster of ensemble guidance that brings higher amounts into the
0.25 to 0.75 inch range, possibly aided by weak instability
ahead of the front. After the front, temperatures return closer
to average into mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Impacts from lingering low stratus clouds creating IFR to MVFR
conditions are forecast within Minnesota before 00Z. Lingering
stratus deck will be slow to diminish this afternoon within
Minnesota, with KBJI last to remain in degraded category from
low CIGs. Current TAF has ceilings scattering out around 22Z,
but confidence is lowered and could be plus/minus 2 hours of
occurring.

Winds will be out of the southwest 5-15kt this afternoon, some
gusts around 20kt in North Dakota. After 00Z, winds remain
steady around 10kt before increasing out of the southwest over
15kt late morning after 16Z. Marginal LLWS may develop tonight
with winds markedly increasing in the 1-3 kft range to around
30kt out of the west/southwest.


Very little chance of fog developing tonight/Sunday morning due
to steady wind above 5kt and dry air. Clear to mostly clear
skies are forecast Sunday, with gusts over 25kt possibly
developing Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ