428
FXUS63 KFGF 252030
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
230 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near blizzard conditions will continue into this evening
  across southeastern North Dakota and the southern Red River
  Valley.

- Falling and blowing snow will bring winter impacts for
  locations along and south of Highway 2 into the evening.

- Below normal temperatures arrive behind this system with several
  low chances of snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...Synopsis...

A trough and its associated area of surface low pressure has
been tracking through the tri state region today. As the low
pulls away tonight,our FA will come under the influence of
northwest flow, which will hold firm through the end of the
forecast period. While some small waves pass through, one in
particular on Friday, snowfall chances after today seem very
limited.

...Winter Storm Continues...

Throughout the morning hours, moderate to heavy snow has been
falling in southeastern North Dakota into west central MN. This is
associated with a surface low in the tri state area, tracking to the
east with time. An area of frontogensis sitting over Sargent to
Wilkin counties has brought heavy snowfall rates of up to 1 inch
per hour, leading to extremely poor conditions per reports
received at the office. Snowfall reports have been spotty, but
WFO ABR recently received a report of at least 8 inches of snow
north of Victor SD, which is just a mile or two south of our FA
along I29. Visibilities have dropped to a quarter mile at times
at Gwinner and Wahpeton. Outside of the heavy snowfall, strong
winds are also bringing impacts, by creating blowing snow
across the warning area. Winds are being driven mainly by the
strong pressure gradient force, not CAA. CAA has not "crashed"
into our FA, rather its been more of a slow but steady
"smothering". In turn, winds have not been as strong in this FA
then areas to our south in SD. However, the pressure gradient
will continue to drive wind gusts up to about 45 mph across
southeastern ND into the southern Red River Valley through the
evening. This has resulted in near blizzard conditions that will
continue for the next several hours, subsiding late this
evening.

Based on the ongoing impacts, active headlines remain unchanged from
the morning update. Advisories begin dropping off at 6 PM in ND,
with the final eastern advisory/warning zones expiring at
midnight.

...Cold into the Weekend...

While the airmass drug in behind this system will be much colder
then we have seen over the past week, the true "crash" of arctic air
will not arrive until the weekend, when high temperatures drop
into the teens above zero. Overnight lows during this same time
will be in the single digits just above or more likely below
zero. As we ride the baroclinic zone Thursday into early
Saturday, an open wave will push along to our south/southwest.
Isentropic ascent should lead to a broad area of light snow with
the eastern/northern edges of it near our western FA border.
Where exactly the baroclinic zone sets up will determine how
much of the area sees snow from this system, as a majority of
ensemble members want to keep it a bit more to our west, which
would keep most of the snow to the west as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Snow, blowing snow, IFR ceilings and wind gusts will all bring
aviation impacts throughout the TAF period. As an area of low
pressure tracks across northern South Dakota, snow will
continue to fall at all TAF sites into the afternoon. Strong
northerly winds on the backside of the low will reduce
visibility into the evening hours due to blowing snow. The
periods of worst visibility will be tied to when heavy falling
snow coincides with the strongest winds. Out of all the
terminals, KFAR will see the longest period of heavy snow
coinciding with the strongest winds, leading them to see the
worst conditions out of the five terminals. As the area of low
pressure pulls away from the region this evening into tonight,
snow will dissipate, winds will slowly relax, and ceilings will
see a slight improvement. Wind gusts should drop off for
Wednesday morning, but ceilings will remain tricky as more MVFR
clouds look to form to end the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ049-
     052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ014-
     015-024-026>030-038-039.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     MNZ001>003-013>017-022-023-027.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ024-028-
     031-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ029-
     030-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty