640
FXUS63 KFGF 221548
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow in the forecast for Saturday into Monday, mainly along
  the international border. Probability for 1" accumulations or
  higher are 40 - 50% in this area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Patchy fog remains across portions of NW MN but dense fog has
become very isolated and thus will allow the SPS to expire. Low
clouds will remain however so expect a very cloudy day for most
of NW MN with minimal heating keeping highs in the mid 20s for
most. One bright side to today`s dreary forecast is the
overnight fog did deposit a nice coating of rime on area trees
creating some picturesque scenery.

UPDATE
Issued at 637 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Some patchy fog has developed over areas of NW MN, and is
periodically reducing visibilities at obs sites to below 1 SM. So
SPS has been issued for the affected areas. Forecast remains on
track otherwise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...Synopsis...

Over eastern ND and MN this morning, stratus is back-building to the
west, just now making it over Grand Forks. There is some fog in
areas of NW MN, but it is patchy at best. Snow on the ground is
keeping temperatures cooler, in addition to the cooler air mass. A
trough is expected to pass to our north on the weekend, followed by
NW flow aloft over the state of North Dakota for the remainder of
the period. With NW flow aloft, the pattern becomes more unsettled,
with several shortwaves and light precipitation in the forecast as
you move into mid next week. The weekend system will usher in more
colder air, putting our highs next work week in the teens and 20s,
and lows in the low teens to single digits.

...Weekend Snow...

As for the weekend system, guidance has greatly shifted in the
opposite direction since yesterday morning. The consensus on the
track location currently is north of the international border.
There`s a new trend in guidance where some members are digging the
trough in as it passes, causing a higher snow swath to shift into MN
along the international border. Greatest area for snow looks now to
be along the international border, now including the bordering
counties in Minnesota, and could retreat into Manitoba if the
current trend keeps on. Probabilities for 1" of accumulation or more
are 40 - 50% along the international border; a stark northerly
shift. Areas along and north of HWY 2 now are looking at 30% chance
for 1 inch or more of accumulation. Deterministic amounts suggest
around 1 - 2 inches along the international border and a mere
dusting for areas in between I-94 and the international border.
Uncertainty still remains on quite a few aspects of this system, so
hard to say what impacts could be seen in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Conditions are in IFR (some LIFR pockets) in MN TAF sites (BJI
& TVF). This is due to a combination of low ceilings and pockets
of patchy fog periodically reducing visibilities. VFR to MVFR
conditions expected into Saturday once the stratus clears MN. ND
should stay VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be variable
before sustained out of the SW, before becoming briefly VRB once
again and switching NW. Speeds will remain around 5 - 10 knots
or less for the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...AH