142
FXUS63 KFGF 211950
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
250 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At times near critical fire weather this week.

- Warming up this weekend with potential for heat impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...Synopsis...

Broad ridging over the western US coupled with troughing over the
Great Lakes/Northeastern US leaves our FA in northwesterly flow
aloft. In the wake of a cold front which passed through
yesterday, temperatures today have been in the 70s area wide, a
reprieve from recent heat. Temperatures on Wednesday will be
just a couple of degrees warmer. Later this week, ridging over
the western US will build eastward. As a result, temperatures
will rise back into the 90s for much of the FA Friday through
Sunday. A few waves riding the periphery of the ridge will bring
periodic chances for thunderstorms starting Friday, lasting
into the weekend. Capping, timing of the waves (during peak
daytime heating vs overnight) and availability of moisture will
all determine if storms actually do form any given day. Right
now, Friday`s wave has the been potential to initiate a few
storms, depending on the strength of the cap. Shear profiles are
supportive of supercells if storms can form, with effective
bulk shear in excess of 40 knots.

The warmest day of the week will likely be Sunday as the thermal
ridge axis situates itself over the FA. Ensemble guidance shows
us remaining on the eastern periphery of ridging much of next
week as well. Eastward extend of ridging will determine how
warm/hot we are beyond Monday, with some guidance keeping
temperatures in the 90s until the last few days of July, while
others cool us off by the end of the forecast period into the
80s.

...Near Critical Fire Weather...

Recent dry weather has caused curing of fuels in portions of the
region, especially in the forests of northwestern MN. RH values this
afternoon have remained elevated (50 percent or higher) but winds
gusting up to 25 mph could still cause any fire that starts to
spread quickly. Therefore, an SPS is in effect into early this
evening for near critical fire weather. Winds will be lighter on
Wednesday, although humidity will likely decrease.

...Heat this Weekend...

As ridging builds east, another period of 90+ degree
temperatures is forecasted. The highest heat indices will be in
southeastern ND, where highs are expected to be in the upper
90s. While humidity will not be as high as with the previous
heat wave (we do not have a good source of richer dew point air
to advect northward), local ET contribution will likely keep dew
points in the upper 50s to 60s. This should maintain heat
indices values a couple of degrees above the air temperature.

To put into context recent heat here are a few quick statistics.
Digging into climate records a bit, Fargo`s average temperatures
from July 1 to 20 ranks 3rd, behind 1936 and 2012. Grand Forks
WFO site ranks 2nd, behind only 1936. With today and tomorrow
being the only days of the next 7 forecasted to have
temperatures near average, it appears these records will
continue to hold about steady into the end of the month - and
depending how stubborn ridging is into next week, our monthly
average temperature may even climb slightly. This goes to show
that while we have not set a single daily high temperature
record this month, the duration of heat (which will continue
with the upcoming stretch this weekend) has been impressive for
our region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Afternoon cumulus is blossoming across the region. CIGs will
generally remain VFR throughout the afternoon. KBJI, KDVL and
KTVF all have a low chance of a brief period of MVFR through
about mid afternoon. The cumulus field will clear throughout the
evening hours. This will coincide with a decrease in winds,
going from 15 knots gusting to 25 knots or so out of the north,
to variable under 5 knots. Winds will pick up again late in the
TAF period, sustained up to 10 knots out of the west by late
Wednesday morning. Cloud cover (if any) overnight into early
Wednesday will remain VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty