675
FXUS63 KFGF 102044
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
344 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts
  of southeastern North Dakota.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms late Friday
  afternoon into the evening for portions of west central into
  north central Minnesota and far southeast North Dakota.
  Storms will be capable of producing all hazards.

- There is a high chance for soaking rainfall Sunday night into
  Monday night across the region which could impact outdoor
  activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A warm afternoon is ongoing, with temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Responsible for this warmth is an upper level
ridge, but it will not last long. A deepening trough and area of low
pressure to our northwest will drive a strong cold front through the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. High temperatures will
vary considerably across the FA, ranging from the 60s in the Devils
Lake Basin, to near 90 in the southern Red River Valley, where the
front will not propagate through until mid or even late afternoon.
Along the front, forcing should be sufficient for thunderstorm
development, some of which may become strong to severe. Thereafter,
temperatures will remain seasonably cool into the weekend. Moisture
will advect northward late Sunday into Monday ahead of a strong
upper level low to our west that will bring widespread rainfall to
end the weekend and start the work week. Temperatures will remain
seasonal to just a few degrees cooler then seasonal into next week.

...Near Critical Fire Weather this Afternoon...

For areas experiencing the most severe impacts from drought in
southeastern ND, fuels have dried considerably. RH values this
afternoon have dropped as low as 25 percent. Combine these
factors with a steady 10 to 20 mph southerly breeze, near
critical fire weather conditions are ongoing, and will continue
through sunset.

...Severe Storms Friday...

Ahead of a strong cold front, an axis of instability (2000+ J/Kg of
MUCAPE) will be in place over far southeastern ND into much of
west central and northwestern MN. Overhead, increasing midlevel
west to southwest winds will improve shear profiles, promoting
40 knots or so of effective shear. Shear profiles will likely
vary across the FA. Hodographs show this well, with southern
areas containing low level curvature, while northern areas
(approximately US Highway 2 north) feature straighter
hodographs. This will play into hazard type, with SPC
probabilities highlighting a 5% tornado risk extending from
southern Beltrami County southward throughout the Lakes Country,
within the area of better low level shear. With shear
orientation off the initiating front, supercells at least
initially are expected, but the strength of forcing and
splitting storms in the north may result in a messier cluster
mode within a few hours of convective initiation.

While the environment in west central MN certainly has a higher
ceiling due to the shear profiles and richer instability, there are
questions on if storms will form. This concern is two fold. First,
if the front pushes through a bit faster (some latest CAMs are
showing this, especially within the REFS), storms may not form
in our area, but rather our eastern border into DLH/MPX`s areas.
Second, soundings indicate that capping will be present, with
capping becoming stronger the further south you go within the
FA. Therefore, if a combination of a faster front/stronger
capping comes into play, the severe risk will become more
limited in west central MN, leaving more of a hail/wind risk in
the north.

...Soaking Rainfall Early Next Week...

A large upper low over the Pacific Northwest will propagate eastward
towards the Northern Plains late Sunday into Monday. There is
some uncertainty in where the deformation band will set up, with
NBM probabilities in the 50 to 70 percent range across the
entire FA. Instability while present, will not be sufficient for
any severe weather concerns.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecasted throughout the TAF period.
Southerly winds this afternoon will occasionally gust up to
about 20 knots at terminals in the Red River Valley and west.
Winds will decrease after sunset, with gusts dropping off. Winds
will shift to the north/northwest Friday morning at KDVL, and
late morning at KGFK. This wind shift is associated with a cold
front that will keep pushing southeastward Friday afternoon
beyond this TAF period, eventually switching winds at all
terminals.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty