915
FXUS63 KFGF 101513
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1013 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low confidence chances for strong to severe storms through
  Tuesday night.

- Seasonable weather with daily highs in the 70s and low 80s
  this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Per current water vapor a low level shortwave between is
traversing the zonal flow this morning and moving east into
eastern North Dakota this afternoon. Currently it is providing
enough forcing to result in some elevated showers and a few
stronger cores that were producing 1-1.5" hail out near minot
around 920am. As the MUCAPE axis of 500-1000 j/kg shifts east
with the shortwave and 925mb thermal ridge, 0-6km shear of 50kts
should continue to support a marginal severe hail threat as
already observed.

UPDATE
Issued at 702 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Will maintain a 20 pop for -shra along the Manitoba border this
morning as a few small showers remain. In the last 2 hours a
t-storm did develop west of Minot and moving into that area, but
confidence is very low how long it lasts as it moves east. But
will wave Devils Lake area and then along the northern tier of
counties in a low pop thru 17z to account for this activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...Synopsis...

Zonal flow across the northern plains continues through the
week with transient shortwave activity. The axis of greatest
instability looks to mainly stay south of the area keeping only
general thunderstorm chances for our forecast area, but cant
rule out some strong to severe storms through the period. As the
Hudson Bay low begins to break down later in the week by
Thursday, Montana/Western ND ridging amplifies with decent
latitudinal differences among cluster analysis and degrading
synoptic flow agreement overall by Friday. Scenarios range from
riding over the area to SW flow or zonal/WNW flow flow across
the Canadian prairies and northern plains. While the confidence
in the long term evolution of the pattern is shaky the chance
for significant weather impacts through next weekend still
appears low even with a spread in models.

Best chance in the near term for impacts will be via
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, but overall the environment
is not terribly concerning from a severe perspective. Maybe just
some heavy rain and lightning with gusty winds and small hail.
Per cluster analysis chances for greater than 0.10" are 40% or
less for any given spot in a 24 hour period through Thursday.
Precip chances look to increase for next weekend but that will
depend on the how the synoptic pattern unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 702 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Light winds today, variable direction under 10 kts. They should
lean toward the northeast or east but could be any direction.
VFR sky cover today with patches of mid and high clouds.
Isolated shower or t-storm activity possible in parts of Devils
Lake basin and SE ND thru the period but confidence is too low
to mention in any prob30 group.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Riddle