537
FXUS63 KFGF 031732
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1232 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday will bring an area of light snow, mixed with rain
  southern RRV. Timing of precipitation is such that there is a
  20 percent chance of minor impacts in the Devils Lake basin
  and less than 5 percent elsewhere.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Skies are clearing out rather quickly in eastern ND helping to
provide sunshine in the Devils Lake Basin. This trend looks to
continue into the valley over the next couple of hours.
Temperatures may be slightly warmer today within the valley
thanks to the sunshine moving in.

UPDATE Issued at 947 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Lingering flurries have moved east of the forecast area into
northeastern Minnesota this morning. Current satellite shows a
low level clouds within the Devils Lake Basin and the higher
level clouds breaking apart. Clearing is noted already in
southwestern Manitoba and into north central North Dakota. Low
level clouds will struggle to break apart in the Devils Lake
Basin through the morning. Otherwise, conditions are expected to
be calm today with temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s for
daytime highs.

UPDATE
Issued at 651 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

All winter headlines expired at 6 am. Lingering light snow
Bemidji To Detroit Lakes and east and this will exit by 14z.
Extensive cloud cover today but there are a few holes. Overall
though 850 mb moisture remains sufficient I think to keep a
mostly cloudy sky for most areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Lingering light snow will taper off in the southern RRV and thru
MN thru sunrise. Pops end after 13z and for now that looks
reasonable. Rest of the day looks cloudy as 850 mb moisture in
place. Some partial clearing may occur late day int the Devils
Lake basin as drier air works into that area from the
northwest. Temperatures today a bit uncertain. Stuck with NBM
which indicates mid 30s to a few low 40s. No sun today but cold
advection is minimal. 500 mb shortwave in central Alberta at 12z
Thu will move southeast be into the Red River valley 00z-06z
Sat. Band of precipitation ahead of this but most models are
trending to have highest chances from eastern Montana thru
western and central ND then diving southeast into northeast SD.
Timing of precipitation with this wave favors a more daytime
precip event for our area and less snowfall impacts.

Colder air moves in behind this wave for Saturday, then followed
by another short wave and shot of colder air for Sunday night
and Monday. 850 mb temps dip into the -14C to -18C range by 12z
Mon. This does appear to be the last of the real cold air as jet
stream patterns change to a building 500 mb ridge in western
Canada and the cold pocket that has been west side of Hudson
Bay will shift east and northeast. Thus slowly moderating temps
anticipated mid next week with potential widespread 55-65 degree
temps end of next week. No significant precipitation expected
next week.


...Friday Shortwave....

Elongated short wave moves into western ND Friday morning and
moves east into the RRV Friday evening. This short wave will
combine with some moisture moving north with southerly flow
aloft around an upper low in Arizona. This will lead toward
better precip chances dropping south with time as shortwave
moves east. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensembles and HREF ensembles from
00z Thu do so the highest chances for 2 inches, 4 inches all
west of our area focused in the Bismarck and Dickinson region.
Plus the precipitation area will be moving thru this area at
night. GFS does have a good 700 mb frontogenetical forcing ahead
of this 500 mb wave and this moves east-southeast and will be
the main forcing mechanism for precipitation. Timing of
precipitation will indicate snow into western fcst area (west of
the valley) 09z-18z Friday then spreading into the RRV 15-21z
and then into MN in the afternoon/evening. Snow probs for 2
inches are near zero in the RRV and MN from WPC and from the
ensembles. They are running near 30 percent Devils Lake area and
higher west. So right now thinking with forecast sfc temps in
the mid-upper 30s and precip in the daytime hours that impacts
will be minimal in our area from this wave. Ensembles indicate
90th/10th percentile snow ranges of 0-2 inches over much of the
fcst area.

WPC shows 10-20 percent chance of minor impacts in Devils Lake
from this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Clouds continue to diminish in eastern North Dakota this
afternoon, with ceilings improving slowly in DVL. GFK, TVF, and
FAR will see MVFR to VFR conditions once the clouds dissipate
within the valley over the next several hours. BJI will see
clouds linger through the entire period, with VFR conditions
this evening. Winds go light and variable this evening and
overnight before a system moves in tomorrow, with increasing
chances for precip 6z for DVL, 10-14z for GFK, TVF, and FAR,
and 15-17z for BJI. RASN is possible for BJI and FAR as
temperatures will be warmer in those locations as the
precipitation moves through. Otherwise, ceilings will be MVFR
underneath any precipitation as it moves through the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/Spender
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Spender