765
FXUS63 KFGF 230054
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
654 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is possible tonight into Sunday morning, especially for
  areas in the Red River Valley and parts of northwest
  Minnesota.

- Low chance (10%) of light freezing precipitation around the
  Devils Lake Basin early Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Mostly high level clouds continue across the entire region.
There remains the potential for fog to develop overnight
tonight, with the main lingering uncertainty being how much
radiational cooling is able to occur beneath the cloud deck. In
any case, generally only minor impacts from fog are expected.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...Synopsis...

Nearly zonal flow is in place at the H5 and H7 levels today, with
thermal ridging starting to build into the area from the west.
Strong winds in the 700mb to 850mb layer are ushering in very warm
temperatures aloft as the result of downslope winds off the northern
US Rockies and southern Canadian Rockies. Several waves of warm air
aloft are expected to traverse the eastern flank of the ridge,
allowing our temperatures in the area to climb well into the 30s to
low 40s for most areas. Upper 40s are not out of the question for
parts of southeastern North Dakota. As this ridge weakens, late next
week, transient split flow will give way to the potential for
moisture return; however, details are minimal at this point as
ensembles struggle to find consensus.

...Fog Possible Tonight...

There is a conditional chance for fog tonight as temperatures fall
into the teens above zero. Dew points continue to increase, and with
very cold ground temps, it would not take much in the way of
radiational cooling to allow fog to develop. The main uncertainty
will be cloud cover, as this will inhibit this cooling from taking
place. In areas where we see better clearing, fog will be possible.

...Low Chance for Freezing Precip Monday Morning...

Light rain and a rain/snow mix is possible late Sunday night into
Monday morning, with a very low chance for freezing rain in and
around the Devils Lake Basin. Temperatures most places look to
remain above freezing as precipitation begins, with only a few areas
along the International Border showing the potential to remain near
the freezing mark. As such, there could be a period of a couple
hours near sunrise where slick spots are possible on surfaces.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

There remains the potential for fog or stratus to develop
overnight tonight. It seems probable (50% chance) that MVFR
conditions will arise overnight at most TAF sites be it stratus
or fog. Other than that, winds will remain light through the
overnight hours with winds increasing from the southwest
towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux