983
FXUS63 KFGF 061236
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
636 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing drizzle and some light snow will push east thru the
  area today...with a period of light snow possible this evening
  inn west central Minnesota.

- Chance for light snow on Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Things going about as anticipated. Vsbys have improved to VFR in
NE ND. Light snow reported now at Fargo ASOS but could not
confirm if snow or still some fzdz. 06z models indicated
continued light but not significant precip this aftn/eve in WC
MN.

UPDATE
Issued at 424 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

GFS has finally caught on to the other models in that
precipitation today into this evening will be light, with
generally a trace to a few hundredths of icing and for most
trace amounts of snow thru the day. Any icing will make surfaces
slick.

The main challenge today in updates is timing of front and
colder air eastward and ptype. The cold front will move into our
far east and southeast fcst area likely 15-17z. Period of
freezing drizzle behind the front, then ends as a bit of light
snow or flurries. This evening as moiture from the southwest
does move into central, eastern and southern Minnesota there is
still a chance for a period of light snow along south of
Bemidji- Detroit Lakes- Wahpeton with less than 1 inch of
accumulation.

Did update WSW...kept ending times as is, only change was to
separate out far east/southeast to start advisory at 15z as
still warm as of 10z in that area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...Synopsis...

19z surface analysis this afternoon shows the center of a low
pressure between Bismarck and central South Dakota. A warm front
sits attached to this and appears roughly stretched across the
Sheyenne River Valley. East of this front, temperatures range in
the 30s to low 40s while west of the front, temperatures are
cool in the teens and low 20s. This front will continue to
propagate westward this afternoon with fog ongoing around it.

Generally speaking, the synoptic pattern will be largely driven
by the current cutoff low over the desert southwest which will
continue to oscillate in location over the next week. This will
result in continued split flow over us. Very low predictability
exists with the evolution of this cutoff low, but at a minimum
there is large ensemble consistency in largely westerly flow
aloft with intermittent jet streaks embedded within the flow.
While the cutoff continues to go on its own down south, we will
likely see periodic chances for active weather. Regrettably, the
temperature gradient that will set up on top of us and largely
zonal flow does leave us susceptible to potential frontogenetic
banding. Again, predictability is very low in any impacts so
stay tuned for future forecasts.

...FOG TODAY...

The warm front continues to be the main focal point for
advection fog through the day. This will continue to push with
the front westward through the remainder of the afternoon.
Observations indicate largely intermittent 1/4SM visibilities,
however given the high predictability for 1/4SM fog and
persistence exceeding several hours, a Dense Fog Advisory was
issued. Dispersed between fog, freezing drizzle has been
observed and is largely expected to continue through the
afternoon as warm air advection remains very strong over us.
While the current Dense Fog Advisory goes until 6 PM, fog is
expected to continue through the evening hours. The main reason
for the expiration at 6 PM is to avoid overcomplicating
headlines, as freezing rain will eventually become the largest
threat this evening.

...FREEZING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT/TOMORROW...

The main weather impact for the next 24-48 hours will be
freezing drizzle and freezing rain. This afternoon, large scale
strong warm air advection is contributing to ongoing freezing
drizzle across northeast North Dakota. As the warm front
propagates westward, the expectation is for freezing drizzle to
be taken with it. However, as a wave coming in from northern
Montana approaches, the warm front is expected to stall and
eventually become a cold front, forcing eastward propagation.
With the increased forcing for ascent from the synoptic wave,
precipitation is expected to become much more widespread.
Thermal profiles will be variable causing different
precipitation types based on location. Surface temperatures
around the Devils Lake Basin should remain well below freezing
despite temperatures aloft achieving above freezing. This
creates a profile favorable for widespread freezing rain. Areas
within the above freezing area are more likely to see rain. This
swath of precipitation will propagate eastward with the freezing
rain area slowly being overtaken by colder air, thus allowing
for a transition to snow. Unfortunately, model guidance is all
over the place with when this transition occurs, so a Winter
Weather Advisory was issued for freezing rain concerns. There is
very little concern at this time with regards to snow potential
as it appears that the strong warm nose will largely inhibit any
significant accumulating snowfall. Hazardous travel conditions
are expected to develop with this freezing rain so use caution
when out traveling tonight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Drier airmass is slowly advancing in and we will continue to see
improvement in vsbys, but it will take until later today to see
it farther east such as Bemidji where they are still in the
foggy, milder air at 12z. Light precip this morning in the RRV
and farther east into the aftn. Looks like transitioning to more
-sn vs fzdz in some areas. Ceilings gradually improve, but
 slowly thru E ND today reaching 1000-1500 ft range. Winds
 northwest 8-15 kts behind front, a few gusts in E ND/RRV abv 20
 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ038-
     039-049-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ001>008-013-014-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this
     evening for MNZ009-015>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Riddle