554
FXUS63 KFGF 070240
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
940 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost advisory and freeze warning impacts early Tuesday
  morning and early Wednesday morning over portions of eastern
  North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Temperatures are dropping fairly quickly in east of the Red
River Valley in west-central Minnesota. Elsewhere, temperatures
are falling much slower thanks to ongoing cloud cover.
Widespread frost and locations of freezing temperatures remain
expected tonight.

A weak wave is working its way down south right now and causing
some returns to crop up on radar. However, it is unlikely any of
this is reaching the ground as surface conditions are very dry.
For this reason, precipitation is not expected.

UPDATE
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The weather will rmeain quiet for the overnight period.
Widespread frost is likely to develop overnight with the dry air
in place. Some spots may struggle to get down pending cloud
cover so this will be something to monitor. Regardless, impacts
will be minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...Synopsis...
The storm track will remain across Canada into the weekend,
with a couple systems propagating across Canada through the
week. The main impact for our region will be a cold front that
sweeps through the region tonight bringing a colder airmass and
frost/freeze potential Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Into the
weekend, a trough will build into the western CONUS, with
multiple scenarios existing for how this trough develops and
evolves (which affects timing and magnitude of shower chances
into early next week). The probability is very low for
advisory/warning type impacts.

...Frost/Freeze Impacts...
For Tuesday morning, a cold front will propagate through the
region overnight. There will likely be a period of increased
winds with the fropa, and then building low level ridging.
Mixing across the northern CWA will rapidly decrease by sunrise,
with the SFC high directly over the Devils Lake basin. Thus,
freezing warning (<=32F) for a portion of the Devils Lake basin
with a frost advisory (33F-36F) elsewhere where winds will be
lighter after 4am. Note that there is a low chance (30%) for 32F
or colder within the frost advisory.

For Wednesday morning, timing is not perfect for a freeze
warning as much of the region will be within return flow by some
point overnight. The question is whether temperatures will drop
fast enough in the evening to be able to drop to freezing
temperatures. There is ~50% chance for 32F or colder
temperatures from portions of the valley eastward, so will go
with a freeze watch.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Winds will diminish with VFR conditions prevailing for the
entire TAF period. As a surface high crosses the region
tomorrow, winds will become variable in direction but will
remain below 6 knots in magnitude. No other aviation impacts are
expected at any TAF site.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ008-016-026>030.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for NDZ008-016-027-029-030.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024-054.
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001-002-004>009-
     013>017-022-023.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Perroux