738
FXUS63 KFGF 082329
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds decreasing after sunset with the wind advisory set to
  expire at 7pm.

- There is a medium chance for severe thunderstorms Friday
  afternoon and evening across parts of eastern North Dakota,
  and northwest and west central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...Synopsis...

A robust mid/upper low is centered over Manitoba, with
dry/subsident air centered over our CWA on WV imagery and 925
MB CAA is spreading into our CWA from the west/northwest. An
embedded shortwave within the flow on the back side of the upper
low passes through the region later tonight and Wednesday
morning an may bring a period of scattered light
showers/sprinkles (wetting rain is not expected). Shortwave
ridging followed by west-southwest flow aloft returns mid to
late week, with even stronger southerly flow Friday. This brings
well above average temperatures back to the region during the
later part of the week.

A strong cold front arrives Friday and a series of troughs and
upper lows are shown to pass through our region with falling
heights aloft, which should result in much more Fall-like
temperatures returning (highs in the 60s). There is a strong
signal for rain with the trough passage Sunday night-Monday
night and NBM probabilities already show 40-60% chance for
greater than 0.5" rainfall during that period across our CWA
(highest chances in the southern Red River Valley). That is a
hopeful signal for those desperate for a soaking rain in the
south, however there is still enough variance in strength of the
upper low between ensemble clusters and mesoscale details
creating uncertainty in where the most beneficial rainfall (1"+)
may ultimately fall.

...Windy Conditions Today...

A combination of deep unidirectional westerly flow through the
mixed layer, subsidence aloft, and clearing/deeper mixing have
resulting in many locations across northeast ND gusting 45 to 50
mph, with the highest gusts over the Devils Lake Basin. Some
locations outside of the advisory are also gusting to 40 mph and
due to the depth of mixing occurring I would not be surprised
if a few gusts to 45 mph could occur farther south towards I-94
in southeast ND (chances remaining higher north in the advised
area). The strongest gusts should wane as low levels begin to
decouple towards sunset, and the expiration time of 7pm still
looks reasonable.

...Severe Risk Friday Afternoon and Evening...

Strong southerly flow should bring higher BL moisture back to the
region, while strong westerly flow aloft overspreads the region
as a trough passes along with a strong cold front. In the warm
sector ahead of the front there is the potential for at least
moderate CAPE values as steep mid level lapse rates will be in
place, though capping may play a role in delayed initiation
until the front and better synoptic ascent arrive. Timing of the
front and forcing and any capping ahead of this will all play
roles in determining coverage and ultimately impacts. Strong
effective shear is forecast across the region, with hodographs
in the warm sector supportive of supercells and very large hail
or tornadoes (mesoscale details will ultimately play a role on
how this pattern is realized). AI based systems that have shown
good skill this season highlight higher probabilities for severe
thunderstorms in our area, especially over west central MN
which conceptually makes sense.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR skies this evening with some patchy 6-8kft CIGs between 06
and 18z as a the backside of the low drags some moisture
through the region. Winds dropping off quickly with some 20+ kt
gusts through 03z otherwise W/NW winds through the night and
tomorrow with winds increasing but remaining under 30 kts for
tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT