638
FXUS63 KFGF 071738
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost advisory and freeze warning impacts early this morning
  and early Wednesday morning over portions of eastern North
  Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A quick mention on near critical fire weather messaging in
west-central Minnesota this afternoon: very dry air mass in
place will allow RH values to dip as low as 20 percent in
portions of west-central MN, mainly adjacent to central MN, this
afternoon. While winds will not be high (5-10 mph, gusts to 15
mph at the most), these conditions are driven by the very dry
conditions in this region of MN. In collaboration with MIFC and
neighboring WFOs, a Special Weather Statement has been issued to
message this potential.

UPDATE
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Surface high pressure dominates the area keeping skies clear and
conditions dry. Still on track for freezing temperatures within
portions of the Red River Valley into Minnesota tonight/Wednesday
morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Cold front just about through the entire forecast area with a
more northwest to north wind shift having passed Park Rapids to
Fergus Falls. Colder air continues to ooze southeast as
anticipated with temps falling to 32-35 Grand Forks, TRF, Roseau
with upper 20s Langdon, Cando areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Main challenge is addressing potential impacts from frost and
freezing temperatures and how low temperatures will get this
early morning and again early Wednesday.

...Frost/freeze potential early this morning and early
Wednesday...


High pressure is near Broadview SK at 08z...high pressure is
moving southeast behind a cold front which is near INL-FSE-FAR
line. Colder air behind the front is slowly spreading into
northeast ND with temps dropping to near 32F Langdon at 09z with
20s upstream in SW Manitoba. So should still see a drop in temps
as sunrise approaches and colder air spreads southeast thru NE
ND and far NW MN. Band of clouds just ahead of front is exiting
the southeast fcst area with mainly clear sky over the area.
Mainly clear today with high pressure moving southeast to be
near Fargo at 00z Wed and then slide southeast from there
tonight. Expect the coldest temps this upcoming night/early Wed
to be in MN, with a mean ensembles indicating greater than 70
pct of 2m temps of below 32F east of the Red River valley in
northern MN, down into the Wadena area. Feel colder spots will
drop into the upper 20s in northwest, north central MN. Farther
west into the RRV...winds will turn southeast overnight. Expect
in this situation a more variable temp pattern with rural
locations dropping to near or just below 32F by 06z then steady
while towns may stay just above freezing. After much discussion
with neighboring offices, decided to convert the freeze watch
area to a freeze warning. Leave nothing out at this time for
southeast ND and far west central MN based on coord with
MPX/ABR. Likely frost advisory for some of the area. DVL
basin/Langdon has a freeze warning this morning and not as cold
this upcoming night, but does it make sense to go frost
adv...temps in this area may hold 35-38 as winds increase
overnight. So nothing issued for this area at this time for the
upcoming night.

Broad 500 mb ridge builds eastward as a 500 mb trough moves into
western Canada and the Pacific NW. Models diverge quite a bit
with speed and location of short waves moving northeast from
this trough as entire 500 mb trough moves east. Consensus has
been the past few days of indicating Sat night into Sunday
seeing best chance for showers and this is maintained.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period for
all sites. Dry air mass over the area will lead to SKC
dominating at all sites. Dry air mass will prevent fog formation
as well.

Winds will be generally light and variable below 6kt
through at least 00Z. Winds increase out of the south 10-15kt in
eastern ND between 00Z-12Z, with all sites seeing increase
15-20kt gusting to 28kt out of the south, highest in eastern
North Dakota and the Red River Valley.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     NDZ008-016-027-029-030.
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ