082
FXUS63 KFGF 170419
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1119 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke continues to affect air quality.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...Synopsis...

The upper level ridging has flattened/weakened a bit, but
additional upper waves are rounding the upper ridge. Ensemble
guidance agrees that through the weekend and into early next
week the upper ridge axis will be west of the region and then
flatten early next week as a stronger system propagates through
Canada, bringing cooler temperatures to the northern plains.
There does not appear to be any stronger synoptic signals for
rainfall/storms given the anticipated pattern, although
mesoscale forcing could provide scattered storms here or there.

...Severe Risk This Evening...

Interesting set up is developing for severe potential this
evening, with what appears to be a triple point across
northcentral North Dakota. MLCAPE near 3000 J/KG and effective
bulk shear 30-35 knots will lead to organized storms. Storm
mode expected to be discrete given lack of strong synoptic
forcing and limited threat area. CAM guidance indicates
convective initiation 5-7p. Initial development will likely be
supercellular along with all associated supercell hazards
(hail, wind gusts, tornado). Regarding tornado potential, the
triple point plus any storm that anchors to the warm front
should experience increased SRH favorable for tornado
development. Uncertainty increases with how the event will
evolve after initial development, although in these situations
storm tipsily attempt to work into the stronger instability
meaning the threat area for the surfaced based severe potential
will remain across northeast North Dakota - and be mainly
diurnally driven with weakening toward 11p or so. The 1 of 5
risk from SPC is based on anticipated coverage.

Later into the night, an area of strong synoptic forming/warm
air advection will bring an elevated severe hail threat to
northwest Minnesota (likely after midnight).

...Heat Impacts...

Frontal boundary has set up from west to east across the region,
with temperatures low-mid 70s to the north of the boundary and
low 90s to the south of the boundary. With dew points around 70F
south of the boundary, heat impacts will continue into the
evening. After today, temperatures will be a bit cooler
(although limited heat impacts will remain for sensitive
groups).

...Air Quality...

As winds become southerly and then westerly overnight, smoke
should move out of the area. That said, forecasting where
wildfire smoke will go is pretty difficult, and as the flow
turns from the north tomorrow, smoke could return, although not
sure how impactful it would be if it does.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Overall, the main aviation impacts will be between the 08z-15z
timeframe wherein lower cloud bases between 1500-4000 ft may
arise in eastern North Dakota. Cloud coverage may be enough to
create MVFR ceilings at DVL and this has been a persistent
signal so it was added to this routine TAF issuance. Conditions
improve through the day after sunrise, eventually becoming VFR
with mostly northwesterly winds as a front sweeps through the
region. Gusts will peak around 20-30 knots in the afternoon,
diminishing close to sunset late in the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Perroux