288
FXUS63 KFGF 211914
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
114 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Big warmup arrives this weekend with temperatures rising
  above freezing and the possibility of a rain/snow mix Sunday
  and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Temperatures are locally warming above model guidance average as
well as NBM in the more heavily tree-covered areas of north-
central Minnesota, and to some degree, within snow-free areas of
central Red River Valley. While not above freezing, these areas
are forecast to see afternoon temperatures well into the 20s.
Have continued to adjust temperatures to focus these local
trends, with other locations remaining in the teens to low 20s.

UPDATE
Issued at 959 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Previous discussions remain valid. Depending on cloud cover (or
lack thereof), could see snow-free areas in the central Red
River Valley into Devils Lake basin as well as high tree
coverage into west-central/north-central Minnesota see higher
temperatures than previously forecast, perhaps nearing or just
exceeding the freezing mark.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 536 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Some thin higher clouds continue to spread across the FA, mainly
along and north of highway 2. Southerly return flow continues to
hold wind speeds in the 5 to 15 mph range. The forecast remains
on track.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure has shifted south of the FA, with
southerly return flow setting up for today. Wind speeds have
actually been running a little higher than anticipated, with
most stations along and west of the Red River Valley sitting at
at least 10 knots. With the pressure gradient tightening, expect
this to pick up to breezy levels (15 to 25 mph) today. Still
not seeing much change in the somewhat flatter northwest 500mb
flow over the next 7 days. This is interspersed at times with a
few weak waves, which could bring some low end chances for
precipitation. The two waves on the closer end still look to be
Sunday and Monday. However, temperatures look so mild by this
point, that impacts should be minimal.

...Rain/snow mix Sunday and Monday...

Really saw temperatures surge yesterday afternoon across the
thicker treed country around Bemidji (highs in the low 20s).
Have tried to go a little warmer for highs (today and Saturday)
than straight NBM for the areas that have been warmer recently
(the Grand Forks to Grafton corridor and across the thicker
trees around Bemidji). Temperatures across the board will rise
today and Saturday, with the warmest days still looking to be
Sunday to Tuesday, with many areas reaching the 40s. Even lows
during this period look to be right around 32F (with steady
winds of at least 10 mph), so snow will be melting. The wave for
Sunday actually looks a little weaker and further north. Some
ensemble members actually keep all the precipitation with this
one north of the Canadian border. The Monday wave now looks to
be stronger than the Sunday wave, and also looks to affect more
of the FA. However, based on current timing, it would pass
through during the warmest period of the day, so more of it
would fall as rain not snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.

Intervals of high altitude cirrus are forecast through 18Z
Saturday.

Through 01Z, winds will be out of the west and southwest,
generally between 10-15 kt, with gusts around 20 kt in northwest
Minnesota, lessening under 10 kt after 01Z.

No precipitation is forecast.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/CJ
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...CJ