195
FXUS63 KFGF 092049
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
349 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...Synopsis...

An upper trough, and associated cold front, will bring cooler and
drier air into the area this evening and overnight. Shortwave
ridging then moves quickly across the Northern Plains on Friday,
with southwest flow following into the weekend. This will bring
increased rain chances to much of eastern North Dakota, northwest,
and west central Minnesota. PWAT values increase sharply heading
into Saturday, with well over 1 inch (3-4 sigma) possible by
Saturday afternoon. An upper low is expected to form, in the Central
and Northern Plains, then lift northeastward, providing an axis of
precipitation and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Despite the
high moisture levels and strong forcing, rainfall totals look to
remain generally around or less than 0.50 inch (40-50 percent
chance. There is roughly a 40 percent chance for amounts approaching
0.75 inch, mainly in the southern Red River Valley.

For Sunday, the upper low continues to move to the east, with wrap
around moisture lingering through much of the day and into the
overnight hours. Look for generally light rain (<0.10 inch) for
portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. For those
to the northwest of Devils Lake, a mix of rain and snow is briefly
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail at most sites this afternoon and through
much of the TAF period. Low to mid level cloud cover continues
to move slowly across portions of southeast North Dakota and
west central and northwest Minnesota. Upstream observations show
cloud bases nearing MVFR levels in some places, thus the mention
of brief MVFR ceilings is is justified at this time, especially
at KTVF, KBJI, and KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch