155
FXUS63 KFGF 111153
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
653 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms late Friday
  afternoon into the evening for portions of west central into
  north central Minnesota and far southeast North Dakota.
  Storms will be capable of producing all hazards.


- There is a 60 percent chance of more than 0.50 inch of rain
  late Sunday night into Monday. Widespread rain could impact
  outdoor activities.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Short term model ensmebles, HREF and REFS, are indicating the
highest severe chances are a tad east now, more so centered over
areas in between Grand Rapids and Bemidji southwest to Park
Rapids, Wadena and Alexandria areas. This subtle shift east
would affect severe risk farther west. Storm development
location and intensity all dependent on location of cold front
and instabilty parameters and of the front and location of a
surface low as it moves into west central MN. Operational 00z
model runs would indicate development near Bemidji to Detroit
Lakes to west of Fergus Falls along the front 22-23z period,
with individual storms tracking northeast while front itself
moves southeast. It would appear that initial discrete
supercells would be short lived and a line of storms will form
pretty quickly after development. This puts into question
confidence of any tornado threat which may be short lived to the
1-2 hours after storm development. Also tied to location of
surface low where SRH 0-1 km will be highest and that appears to
be Alexandria-Wadena area near or just north of the low.
Fargo does look to be west of the convective development and
will keep t-storm chance east of Fargo. Do think the far west
edge of SPC Day 1 is a tad too far west, but talking miles so
enough uncertainity that it isnt completely unreasonable.

Does look like for the next system rain area moves thru late
Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts have been
lowering the past few days....with NBM indicating 60 pecent
chance of QPF more than 0.50 inch but chances for more than 1
inch is closer to 20/30 percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A warm afternoon is ongoing, with temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Responsible for this warmth is an upper
level ridge, but it will not last long. A deepening trough and
area of low pressure to our northwest will drive a strong cold
front through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. High
temperatures will vary considerably across the FA, ranging from
the 60s in the Devils Lake Basin, to near 90 in the southern
Red River Valley, where the front will not propagate through
until mid or even late afternoon. Along the front, forcing
should be sufficient for thunderstorm development, some of which
may become strong to severe. Thereafter, temperatures will
remain seasonably cool into the weekend. Moisture will advect
northward late Sunday into Monday ahead of a strong upper level
low to our west that will bring widespread rainfall to end the
weekend and start the work week. Temperatures will remain
seasonal to just a few degrees cooler than seasonal into next
week.

...Near Critical Fire Weather this Afternoon...

For areas experiencing the most severe impacts from drought in
southeastern ND, fuels have dried considerably. RH values this
afternoon have dropped as low as 20 percent. Combine these
factors with a steady 10 to 20 mph southerly breeze and near
critical fire weather conditions are ongoing, and will continue
through sunset.

...Severe Storms Friday...

Ahead of a strong cold front, an axis of instability (2000+
J/Kg of MUCAPE) will be in place over far southeastern ND into
much of west central and northwestern MN. Overhead, increasing
midlevel west to southwest winds will improve shear profiles,
promoting 40 knots or so of effective shear. Shear profiles will
likely vary across the FA. Hodographs show this well, with
southern areas containing low level curvature, while northern
areas (approximately US Highway 2 north) feature straighter
hodographs. This will play into hazard type, with SPC
probabilities highlighting a 5% tornado risk extending from
southern Beltrami County southward throughout the Lakes Country,
within the area of better low level shear. With shear
orientation off the initiating front, supercells at least
initially are expected, but the strength of forcing and
splitting storms in the north may result in a messier cluster
mode within a few hours of convective initiation.

While the environment in west central MN certainly has a higher
ceiling due to the shear profiles and richer instability, there
are questions on if storms will form. This concern is two fold.
First, if the front pushes through a bit faster (some latest
CAMs are showing this, especially within the REFS), storms may
not form in our area, but rather our eastern border into
DLH/MPX`s areas. Second, soundings indicate that capping will be
present, with capping becoming stronger the further south you
go within the FA. Therefore, if a combination of a faster
front/stronger capping comes into play, the severe risk will
become more limited in west central MN, leaving more of a
hail/wind risk in the north.

...Soaking Rainfall Early Next Week...

A large upper low over the Pacific Northwest will propagate
eastward towards the Northern Plains late Sunday into Monday.
There is some uncertainty in where the deformation band will set
up, with NBM probabilities in the 50 to 70 percent range across
the entire FA. Instability while present, will not be
sufficient for any severe weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A cold front with a wind shift to the north-northwest will make
its way southeast today. At 12z it is near Roseau-Grand Forks-
Cooperstown then forecast to be near Bemidji-Fargo 22-23z.
T-storm development is anticipated to be near Bemidji then to
the east of Fargo late afternoon thru early evening. Kept tempo
in for tsra in Bemidji 00-02z. Expect VFR conditions today with
predominate high clouds then near the front altocu later today.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/TT
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Riddle