096
FXUS63 KFGF 041447
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
947 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening. The primary threats will be lightning and gusty
  winds. Widespread severe storms are not expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Fairly quiet this morning with temperatures climbing into the
60s. Some radar returns approaching Towner county through north
central ND. Not a lot seems to be reaching the ground, but
enough spots on NDAWN are showing up with a trace to keep the 20
POPs we have going. Made a few minor tweaks to cloud cover, but
no major changes to the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The forecast remains on track this morning with temperatures
across the area generally in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. A
few cooler spots have briefly fallen into the upper 30s to low
40s. Winds remain light and variable, but are expected to
increase by mid morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...Synopsis...

West to northwest H5 flow prevails today into Thursday. A relatively
weak theta-e gradient boundary will be situated from west to east
today, allowing a chance for diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. At this time, severe
potential is minimal; however, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled
out, with lightning and wind gusts being the primary concerns.
Heading into Thursday, a shortwave traverses the H7 flow, bringing
more widespread rain chances and another chance for isolated
afternoon thunderstorms. A much stronger upper low, and associated
cold front, brings showers and thunderstorm chances back into the
area this weekend, mainly late Saturday through around midday
Sunday. Model soundings show a low chance for severe thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening. Surface CAPE shows roughly 1000 to
2000 J/Kg with decent mid to deep layer shear.

...A Few Strong Storms Possible Today...

Afternoon thunderstorm activity will be isolated today, with a low
chance for a few stronger storms. Widespread severe thunderstorms
are not supported; however, we could see briefly gusty winds of 40
mph or higher, along with frequent lightning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this morning. Light and
variable winds will increase out of the west to northwest by mid
morning, with gusts ranging from 15 to 20 knots. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly for KGFK and
KTVF, with lower chances elsewhere. A strong storm or two is
possible, with wind gusts of 40 mph possible in the vicinity of
the strongest storms.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch