673
FXUS63 KFGF 122329
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected through this
  evening in the Red River Valley and eastern North Dakota, and
  a wind advisory remains in effect. Additional strong winds are
  expected again on Thursday and Friday.

- A Red Flag warning continues through the evening for eastern
  North Dakota and portions of western Minnesota. Near critical
  to critical fire weather conditions are again expected over
  parts of the region each afternoon tomorrow into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Gusty northwest winds remain persistent across much of the area
with gusts still reaching upwards of 40 mph. Blowing dust is
being observed across much of the central and southern Red
River Valley, as well as portions of northwest Minnesota.
Visibility reductions as low as 1/2 mile have been reported at
times. Winds will slowly taper off after sunset, eventually
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low rotating off towards Lake Superior will leave the
Northern Plains in northwesterly flow aloft tonight. The
pressure gradient will relax this evening as the surface low
pulls east and high pressure builds into the region. A bit of a
break from the wind tomorrow with the surface high nearby, but
rising upper heights and 850mb temps along with mostly sunny
skies will boost highs in the 70s. Another strong shortwave
trough will move towards the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border
Thursday, with pressure gradient and winds increasing again out
of the south. Some signals for precipitation along the surface
trough axis late Thursday into Thursday night, and a few of the
models show some elevated instability. Probabilities for
thunder are 20 percent and under. That shortwave moves off into
Ontario on Friday, with strong west winds as the surface low
moves by to the northeast. Near zonal to southwesterly flow
aloft sets up for the weekend into early next week, with the
highest chances for an embedded shortwave and thus some
precipitation on Sunday.

...Headlines for winds this evening as well as Thursday and
Friday...

Current winds gusting to 40 mph or greater across eastern ND and
west central MN this afternoon, and with a bit more mixing to be
had they could ramp up a bit more during the next few hours.
Some spots seeing some patchy blowing dust so included a mention
in the grids. Probabilities of wind gusts over 40 mph stay
above 50 percent through 00Z, then the winds should drop off.
Tomorrow will be fairly quiet as even with good mixing up to
700mb again the upper level winds are fairly week. While not
much cold air advection, plenty of mixing up past 800mb should
help bring 45 kts plus down to the surface. Similar mixing and
even higher winds aloft could bring the over 50 kts aloft down
to the surface at times. There is some 50 percent probability of
winds over high wind criteria Friday afternoon, but it is in the
NBM`s usual high bias spot in the central RRV. Could see warning
criteria but given current headlines and Friday still pretty
far away will hold off on any watches for now. Will just keep
wind advisory going for this evening and deal with winds day by
day.

...Fire weather concerns through the week...

RH values have fallen to 30 percent just east of the Red River,
and will continue to see humidity drop off in the next few hours
before starting to recover. See little reason to make changes to
the current Red Flag warning. Tomorrow the winds will be much
lower, but still could get some good mixing and RH values down
to the 20 to 30 percent range. Will have to watch out for any
SPS/HWO needed for near critical messaging. Winds return out of
the south Thursday, but dew points will also be rising, so at
this point it seems afternoon RH values will stay around 30 to
40 percent. Winds shifting to the west behind the trough axis on
Friday will bring drier RHs and strong winds back, so will
monitor for future fire headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail at KBJI, with mostly VFR conditions
elsewhere. There could occasionally be visibility reductions at
KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF through the remainder of the evening as
winds slowly taper off and gusts diminish. Winds become light
and variable overnight. There is the potential for LLWS later
this evening and overnight, especially from the Red River Valley
eastward. Any LLWS issues should be somewhat brief, however, as
high pressure moves into the area from the northwest during the
late overnight period. Will continue to monitor and amend as
needed.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-
     016-027-030.
MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     027-029-030-040.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>003-
     007-029-030-040.
     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ001>004-007-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch