984
FXUS63 KFGF 012326
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
626 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 1 of 5 chance for isolated severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon across parts of west central Minnesota,
  and a 1 of 5 chance for isolated severe storms Thursday
  afternoon in northeast North Dakota.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday, July 4th, along
  with the potential for heavy rain in some areas during the
  evening and overnight hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwest
Minnesota overnight with around a tenth of an inch possible for
locations impacted. Otherwise quiet conditions on this first
night of July

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...Synopsis...

An active period of weather is expected over the next week. Several
H7 shortwaves will traverse an increasingly westerly, then
southwesterly H5 flow pattern through the end of the week and into
the weekend. Ridging will move eastward across the Central and
Northern Plains tonight through Thursday, then give way to the
aforementioned shift in the flow pattern. Return flow allows dew
points to increase into the 60s Wednesday afternoon, with a weak
backdoor cold front moving southwestward Wednesday afternoon. This
could lead to isolated thunderstorms along the front, with the
possibility of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and
evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible
Thursday as the front stalls, then lifts northward along a theta-e
gradient. This could provide an axis of development for potentially
strong to severe storms in central and northeast North Dakota.
Looking at the July 4th holiday and the weekend, active weather
remains possible as the ridge continues eastward. Rounds of
thunderstorms are expected, with a chance for strong to severe
storms Friday through Sunday. A strong cold front is expected to
move through the area late Sunday into Monday morning.

...Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Wed and Thurs...

While the highest instability and shear remain to the southeast of
the area on Wednesday, we should see CAPE values upwards of 2000
J/Kg, with relatively strong low to mid level shear. Model soundings
show steep low level lapse rates and temperature profiles supportive
of supercells or hybrid clusters, mainly in west central Minnesota.
For Thursday, the same boundary will lift back to the north in
response to return flow out of the south, then interact with an
approaching H7 shortwave out of the southwest. This will mainly
impact central North Dakota and portions of northeastern North
Dakota.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible July 4th and into the Weekend...

As the front continues to slowly push to the east, moisture
continues to build into eastern North Dakota and northeast
Minnesota. Dew points climb into the low to mid 70s, with afternoon
CAPE expected to reach upwards of 3000 to 4000 J/Kg. Shear profiles
support large hail and damaging wind gusts, generally favoring line
segments and clusters. Supercells are still supported, however, but
with a bit more uncertainty that mainly surrounds the timing of the
front. Very heavy rain is possible Friday evening and overnight,
with PW values of 2+ inches in many areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR skies through the period with some scattered shower/t storm
chances 00z to 12z at TVF and BJI though not high enough
confidence to explicitly put them in the tafs due to spotty
coverage. Winds becoming light and variable tonight remaining
under 10kts through the period. If not for the light nature of
winds frequent amds could be needed due to highly unpredictable
and variable directions.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT