383
FXUS63 KFGF 301933
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
133 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect 9pm to 9am Saturday for wind
chills of -30 to -35

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect Saturday afternoon to Sunday
evening for 1-3" of new snow and occasional whiteouts from blowing
snow.

- A more active period kicks off with multiple clippers possible
through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...Synopsis...

To begin the period ridging and arctic high pressure remain over the
area tonight with low temperatures Saturday morning widely in the
minus teens and wind chills mainly north of HWY 200 in the minus
30s. As the ridge slowly pushes east through the afternoon a clipper
will move across the canadian prairies with strong southerly WAA
bringing increased winds to the Valley. A swift cold front Sunday
morning then turns winds N/NW with a uncertainty about if this
airmass change will be enough to create and sustain HCRs through the
afternoon potentially leading to prolonged blowing snow impacts but
more on that down below. Beyond Sunday there remains confidence in
another clipper tracking through the Dakotas Mon/Tue favoring the
souther portion of the forecast area for any impact potential.
Clusters then support a strengthening ridge over California and
increasingly more meridional flow over the northern plains as a
result into the mid week. As late week southeast troughing clears
out flow and allows flow to transitions back to a more northwest
direction another clipper looks to move through the region but with
clusters starting to diverge on placement of large scale synoptic
features at this range confidence in timing and potential for
impacts from this wave is notably low. Northwest flow does look to
remain through late next week into next weekend keeping us in the
cross hairs for more clipper type activity but no notable signals are
evident at this range for individual waves.

- Tonight

Good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and a relatively
uniform snowpack will allow temps to fall into the minus teens once
again tonight though with winds generally light cold wind chills
will be more in and out rather than a persisting through the night.
Regardless there is good agree in at least intermittent wind chills
of -30 or colder from 00z to 15z Saturday morning.

- Snow Saturday/Sunday

There remains a range of possible impacts this weekend as the
clipper moves through ranging from nuisance blowing snow and
 whiteouts in the wind prone corridor from Hallock to
Halstad and Beltrami along HWY75/HWY9 with 1-2" of snow and locally
3". An upper end scenario includes similar snowfall and slightly
stronger winds saturday leading to more impacts than expected and
stronger cold air advection on sunday leading to precipitating HCRs
and widespread blowing snow impacts beyond the exit of the clipper
Sunday morning. This could result in near blizzard to blizzard
condition across parts of the eastern Red River Valley Sunday 6am-
3pm.

Breaking it down we are currently leaning more in favor of scenario
1 with a 70% chance at 2" of snow and for most of the RRV and 70%
for areas outside the valley for at least 1". With southerly winds
this time of year its always a gamble what to trust as you can have
a strong jet right on top the inversion that never make it down to
the surface and this seems to be the case with this event. A 50-60kt
LLJ at 850mb will likely only result in 20-30mph winds at the
surface mainly driven by PGF and occasional gusts into the mid 30s.
Now this is still going to create periodic whiteouts during falling
snow Saturday evening withing the valley where winds are strongest
but a south wind blizzard seems highly unlikely Saturday. Sunday as
the cold front moves through a quick 2-3 hour surge along the front
will likely result in winds nearer the NBM90th percentile with
sustained winds near 30mph in the HWY 75 corridor and gusts to
40mph. However this is where confidence goes MIA as the last few
events like this have maintain their pressure rises much longer than
previously forecast resulting in lower end blizzard events. The
thinking is that this will not be the case this time and the worst
blowing snow impacts should remain confined to the 12z-18z directly
behind the cold front. Should HCRs form this will likely extend
towards to sunset through winds would need to remain elevated via
pressure rises for near blizzard conditions to occur. It is with
that in mind that we believe the confidence is not there for high
end sustained impacts but impacts to daily travel are expected to
meet locally defined advisory criteria and as such we are hoisting a
winter wx advisory from 18z Saturday to 18z Sunday.

- Monday and Beyond.

Another clipper looks to slide southeast across the Dakotas Monday
evening/Tuesday morning bringing some more light snowfall but nothing
too impactful looking as of now. Snow chances then persist through
the week via multiple shortwaves but confidence is too low to
warrant discussing further details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions through much of the period with light and
variable winds for all minus DVL through 12z Saturday as a
surface trough meanders and winds eventually end up southerly.
Increasing southerly winds amid warm air advection tomorrow will
yield winds of 15-20mph and gusts near 30mph by the end of the
period lasting into the evening ahead of a cold front. DVL
looks to be the only site to see snow move in within the TAF
period through GFK and FAR should see snow/blsn begin shortly
after the period. Conditions likely to deteriorate into MVFR and
IFR for all Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT