304
FXUS63 KFGF 112345
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight
  through Sunday night with potential impacts to outdoor
  activities.

- Gusty winds are expected across much of eastern North Dakota
  and parts of northwest Minnesota. There is a 60 percent chance
  for wind gusts of 40mph or higher.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Cirrus is overspreading the region ahead of our next storm
system. There are a few radar returns out there this evening as
we remain in a WAA regime. Even a few lightning strikes occurred
earlier as storms popped up in the Red River Valley. However,
very dry low levels have kept most if not all of any associated
rainfall from reaching the ground. For example, only a handle of
Trace reports are showing up on NDAWN, even where heftier radar
returns have tracked. Therefore did not see a reason to adjust
PoPs for this evening. Rainfall chances increase markedly after
dark from southwest to northeast as better lift arrives and the
atmospheric column saturates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...Synopsis...

Ridging moves off to the east this afternoon and evening, with H5
troughing taking shape across Montana. An upper low is expected to
close off later this evening in southern Saskatchewan, then move
east into Manitoba through the day Sunday. Strong warm air and
moisture advection prevails ahead of the upper low along southwest
flow. Wind gusts could exceed 45 mph out of the south Sunday morning
into midday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through
much of the day and into Sunday evening before moving east on
Monday. Strong cold air advection will combine with sharp pressure
rises and good mixing Sunday afternoon, leading to gusty west to
northwest winds as the low continues eastward. Overall a windy day
with showers and isolated storms through much of Sunday. Much cooler
temperatures prevail in the wake of the cold front passage on
Monday, with highs on Tuesday in the 40s to low 50s after morning
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Slightly warmer temperatures
return for Wednesday and Thursday, along with a return to a more
active and wetter pattern.

...Gusty Winds Through Late Sunday Evening...

Strong pressure gradients prevail today ahead of an approaching
upper low. Look for south to southeast winds ranging from 15-25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph this afternoon. These winds remain elevated
overnight, then increase further heading into Sunday morning. Wind
gusts on Sunday could reach upwards of 50 mph, with a 60 percent
chance of 40 mph or higher. It is worth noting that R-Climate is
near maximum values for wind and near minimums for pressure. This is
in line with strong support for good momentum transfer potential,
with max winds possibly reaching to near warning thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR to start the TAF period, but precipitation will increase
tonight, impacting all TAF sites for varying durations. Along
with the increase in precipitation, ceilings will lower into
MVFR for KGFK, KDVL and KTVF. Brief periods of IFR are possible
Sunday morning at KDVL, but the exact timeframe remains tricky
to pin down, so left out of the TAF for now. LLWS is forecasted
overnight at all TAF sites as a strong low level jet of up to 50
knots sits over the region. In addition to the impacts from
LLWS, ceilings, and precipitation, winds will remain sustained
in the teens overnight, increasing substantially again for
Sunday. Gusts of up to 40 knots are forecasted at all sites
except KBJI. Winds will initially start out of the southeast,
but pivot to a westerly direction as a strong cold front pushes
through on Sunday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-053-054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Rafferty