324
FXUS63 KFGF 311019
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
419 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow for most of the area this weekend, mostly
  ranging from 0.5 inch to 2 inches, with local 3 inches around
  Lake of the Woods. Local minor travef impacts anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

...Synopsis...

At 09z the cold front has made it south thru the entire forecast
area. Temperatures are falling as anticipated with near zero now
along the Manitoba border with low 20s along the SD border. Will
need to monitor these temps this morning to see how low they go,
there will be some recovery this afternoon but not much.
Flurries were observed in NE ND and NW MN and seen on radar but
those have shifted east-southeast. Did update earlier for some
flurries and despite none seen at obs sites at 09z will maintain
chance thru dawn behind the front. Low clouds also moving
south-southwest thru central and eastern ND with some clearing
noted northeast of Winnipeg and this should move south into
parts of far NW MN today. Unsure of clearing trends into NE ND
though. North wind 12-25 kts today. Winds turn southeast late
tonight ahead of the next system which is moving east from the
Pac NW and British Columbia.


...Weekend Snow Chance...

Lead 500 mb short wave to move into South Dakota Saturday with m
main 500 mb short wave in Alberta. Main sfc low with this system
will remain well to our north this weekend. 850 mb winds
incdrease with 850 mb warm advection noted moving east thru
southern Canada, eastern ND into MN Friday overnight-Saturday.

Two centers of 850 mb warm advection, one in southern Canada and
the other develops over eastern MN Saturday aftn. In between
over E ND there is pocket of drier 850 mb air and despite a
moist lower level layer up to 880 mb there is dry air above this
and not a loft of lift and therefore snow development is likely
to struggle. Trends of the last 2 days model blends, have
indicated lower snowfall totals thru E ND into parts of west
central MN. Tonights data suggests under values closer to 0.5
inch or less Grand Forks - Devils Lake and south Saturday.

Sunday will see main low track thru Manitoba. Feed of moisture
will remain to our east and north primarily, from Wisconsin thru
northern MN into Manitoba. Thus far east and northeast areas of
our fcst area (Bemidji-Roseau-Baudette) stand the better chance
of seeing 2 inches or more (30 percent from NBM to 70 pct via
WPC snow probs). Probs of 2 inches drop off to near zero
GFK/DVL/FAR areas.

Gusty SSE winds Saturday to 30 kts in parts of the RRV (esp MN
side) while WNW winds gust 35-40 over easter ND on Sunday. But
cold advection is not great and soundings indicate a shallow
cold advection layer for mixing up to 910 mb where winds are
30-35 kts at GFK vs GFS. Higher wind potential DVL basin. But
also looking at limited new snow, may not see much issue from
these winds in terms of blowing snow. Prob WSSI from WPC did
remove a lot of the minor blowing snow impacts from E ND Sunday.
Something to monitor. But for the time being did not add any
BLSN to the grids Sunday.

...Next week snow chance Tue-Wed...

Confidence remains low next week. Moisture will indeed move from
the trough off the west coast and thru the central and northern
Rockies and into the plains, but how far north any snow gets is
in question. A more southwest flow aloft will bring thru the
entire area. NBM which has higher QPF and snowfall totals than
WPC indicates potential for 2 inches of more at 50 pct area wide
and 35 pct chc of 4 inches or more thru the area. Also unknown
if there will be an actual surface low moving out or more of a
prolonged period of light snow for 48 hours.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

A weak cool front continues to sag slowly southward, and is
currently about through the FA. Therefore, winds have turned to
the north and are picking up a little (10 to 15 knots). As the
cold advection continues late tonight into Friday morning, these
north winds should increase a little more (15 to 25 knots),
especially within the Red River Valley (KGFK/KFAR). Low clouds
have now arrived at KDVL, and these should spread southward
overnight as well through the other TAF sites too, and continue
into mid Friday morning for a lot of sites. However, ceiling
heights should rise at all the TAF sites by later morning into
the afternoon. By late afternoon, the gusty winds should begin
to drop off again.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon