716
FXUS63 KFGF 020354
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1054 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 1 of 5 chance for isolated severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon across parts of west central Minnesota,
  and a 1 of 5 chance for isolated severe storms Thursday
  afternoon in northeast North Dakota.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday, July 4th, along
  with the potential for heavy rain in some areas during the
  evening and overnight hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Confidence has increased substantially in overnight storms with
echos beginning to cross the border as of writing. Seeing gusts
as high as 40mph NW of Winkler, MB so can probably assume there
are unsampled 40-50 winds though somewhat unlikely there are any
58+. Would expect a general maintenance of the current strength
if not slight weakening with things becoming increasingly
elevated with time. Some small hail to penny size and gusts to
50mph are the main threats for northwest Minnesota in addition
to lightning.

UPDATE
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwest
Minnesota overnight with around a tenth of an inch possible for
locations impacted. Otherwise quiet conditions on this first
night of July

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...Synopsis...

An active period of weather is expected over the next week. Several
H7 shortwaves will traverse an increasingly westerly, then
southwesterly H5 flow pattern through the end of the week and into
the weekend. Ridging will move eastward across the Central and
Northern Plains tonight through Thursday, then give way to the
aforementioned shift in the flow pattern. Return flow allows dew
points to increase into the 60s Wednesday afternoon, with a weak
backdoor cold front moving southwestward Wednesday afternoon. This
could lead to isolated thunderstorms along the front, with the
possibility of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and
evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible
Thursday as the front stalls, then lifts northward along a theta-e
gradient. This could provide an axis of development for potentially
strong to severe storms in central and northeast North Dakota.
Looking at the July 4th holiday and the weekend, active weather
remains possible as the ridge continues eastward. Rounds of
thunderstorms are expected, with a chance for strong to severe
storms Friday through Sunday. A strong cold front is expected to
move through the area late Sunday into Monday morning.

...Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Wed and Thurs...

While the highest instability and shear remain to the southeast of
the area on Wednesday, we should see CAPE values upwards of 2000
J/Kg, with relatively strong low to mid level shear. Model soundings
show steep low level lapse rates and temperature profiles supportive
of supercells or hybrid clusters, mainly in west central Minnesota.
For Thursday, the same boundary will lift back to the north in
response to return flow out of the south, then interact with an
approaching H7 shortwave out of the southwest. This will mainly
impact central North Dakota and portions of northeastern North
Dakota.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible July 4th and into the
Weekend...

As the front continues to slowly push to the east, moisture
continues to build into eastern North Dakota and northeast
Minnesota. Dew points climb into the low to mid 70s, with afternoon
CAPE expected to reach upwards of 3000 to 4000 J/Kg. Shear profiles
support large hail and damaging wind gusts, generally favoring line
segments and clusters. Supercells are still supported, however, but
with a bit more uncertainty that mainly surrounds the timing of the
front. Very heavy rain is possible Friday evening and overnight,
with PW values of 2+ inches in many areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Seeing thunderstorms begin to move across the border with
enough confidence to throw a tempo in there for both BJI and TVF
with gusts to 25kts possible should a cell pass over. Otherwise
VFR skies with calm winds tonight. Winds becoming N/NE
Wednesday afternoon through staying under 10 kts for the most
part. Minimal aviation concerns besides the week storm threat
tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT