596
FXUS63 KFGF 250321
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1021 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low over
  the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

With temps so far falling at the forecast rate frost potential
seems low enough to forgo an advisory for tonight through afew
areas will likley still drop into the upper 30s so take that
into consideration if you have any especially sensitive plants.

UPDATE
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Still monitoring frost potential for tonight but with dewpoints
at peak heating barely dipping below 40 and less than ideal
radiational cooling conditions as winds likely stay 3-6mph
would thing only traditional cold spot like the bogs near the
red lakes would get near or below the 36 mark. With that said
still a 20 percent chance for some patchy frost but continuing
to hold on issuing any related products.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Northwesterly flow and surface high pressure will remain over
the forecast area through tonight and Monday, with only some
slight movement to the southeast by Monday night. This will keep
the region cooler than average with scattered to broken daytime
cumulus, although the sprinkles we saw yesterday afternoon look
like they will stay to the east. The biggest question will be
how low will temperatures go tonight with the surface high
overhead and most of the cloud cover expected to dissipate.
Continue to include the 25th percentile of the NBM, which
takes our typically colder areas into the upper 30s. Lower
percentiles would get us closer to the 36 mark needed for frost
advisory, and the NBM shows about a 30 percent chance of that
happening in the boggy areas of MN. At this point, given current
dew points in the 40s will lean towards the 25th percentile
rather than going lower and will think our chances for frost are
low.

Cool temps continue into Tuesday as the surface high slowly
moves southeast and winds return to a more southwesterly
direction. Models are showing a signal for a reinforcing
shortwave moving down into the Great Lakes, bringing a few rain
showers to the Lake of the Woods region but impacts look low.
Temperatures warm back up to seasonal values for the later half
of the work week as ridging builds in. Some of the ensemble
members have a signal for some sort of ridge riding shortwave
and some weak precip chances as we head into the weekend, but
predictability is low.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions forecast with minimal impact to area operations.
Skies have cleared for the night with saturating sfc parcels
likely leading to some scattered ground fog through not
impactful outside of ditches and exceptionally low areas. Some
scattered CU expected in the afternoon Monday with ceilings
around 5000-6000. Winds NW in the afternoon before flipping to
S/SW as high pressure passes over the area late in the eveing
towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT