644
FXUS63 KFGF 102335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Saturday
  night through Sunday night with potential impacts to outdoor
  activities.

- A period of strong winds may impact locations along and west
  of the Red River Valley Sunday afternoon through Monday
  morning. There remains about a 30 percent chance for wind
  gusts greater than 45 mph during that period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Barely a cloud in the sky on visible satellite, with very few
changes to the going forecast needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...Synopsis...

An upper trough continues to move away from the area this evening
and into the Great Lakes region tonight. Shortwave H5 ridging is
filling into the area from the west tonight into Saturday morning,
along with near-record PWAT values. Initially, there will be a dry
air mass in place Saturday morning; however, southwest flow on the
trailing side of the ridge will facilitate increasing moisture from
west to east. Precipitable water could reach upwards of 1.5 inches
across the area heading into Saturday night and Sunday. A strong H5
trough is expected to develop, strengthening theta-e gradients ahead
of it. Most ensemble members are closing the trough into an upper
low on Sunday, with strong pressure gradients developing ahead of
the low, as well as the western side of the low. This will bring a
relatively high likelihood of gusty winds Saturday afternoon
through Sunday evening.

A period of unsettled weather is in store next week as several
shortwaves traverse the region along west to southwest flow.
Ensemble spread is rather high at this point; however, it is worth
noting that a cooler and wetter pattern is possible Wednesday
through Saturday next week.

...Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Sat night thorugh Sun Night...

Strong moisture advection prevails Saturday into Sunday in
association with a strong upper low. Moderate rain is possible at
times due to unseasonably high PWATs and instability. Embedded
thunderstorms are looking more likely in recent model runs, with the
highest rainfall rates associated with convective activity along and
ahead of the primary theta-e gradient. At this time, the highest
rainfall totals look to favor northwest and west central Minnesota,
as well as portions of the southern Red River Valley. There is a 30
percent chance to exceed 0.50 inch of rain in northwest Minnesota,
with an 80 percent chance to exceed 0.10 inch across much of the
area.

...Gusty Winds Possible Sat Afternoon through Sun Evening...

Strong advection prevails Saturday along south to southeast winds.
Advisory level winds are possible Saturday afternoon and evening,
especially west of the Red River Valley, where there is a 50 percent
chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph. Higher winds are expected
Sunday as cold air advection enhances the trailing pressure rises
presented by the departing upper low. At this time, there is a 30
percent chance to reach or exceed 45 mph gusts for areas west of the
Red River Valley. There has been consistent ensemble agreement that
supports wind gusts as high as 58 mph in some scenarios Late Sunday
afternoon. Soundings remain supportive of good momentum
transfer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period, but winds will be on the increase
Saturday morning into the afternoon. Gusty winds up to 30 knots
out of the south/southeast will prevail at all sites from
Saturday morning into the evening. While ceilings will be VFR
they will creep downward, especially at KFAR through the
morning/afternoon hours of Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Rafferty