880
FXUS63 KFGF 271854
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
154 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds this afternoon with a few gusts exceeding 45mph.
  Wind Advisory in effect through 7pm.

- Rain wrapping up this evening with drier weather through the
  next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...Synopsis...

The current shortwave bringing our rain will work off to the
northeast over the next 24 hours with conditions drying out
this afternoon across eastern North Dakota and by midnight for
the Minnesota counties. In other news moderate pressure rises
and a tightened PGF on the northwest side of the low will
contribute to increased winds across the Valley and southeast
North Dakota this afternoon (Wind Advisory in effect until 7pm)
with gusts up to 45 mph. Beyond today zonal flow tomorrow
becomes northwest by Wednesday evening with this lasting through
the workweek as highs stay 45-55 degrees through Thursday.
Warming up Friday onwards with highs in the 60s for most areas
as thermal riding creeps overhead. Various low amplitude
shortwaves will move through the northwest flow over the next
week but our confidence in timing/location of a wetting (>0.10")
rain is low.

- Today

Drying profiles along and north of HWY 2 are leading to
diminishing radar returns with a surge of moisture in west
central Minnesota leading to increasing coverage of showers with
another tenth to quarter inch through midnight from Fargo to
Baudette and points south bringing events totals widely above 1"
in areas that currently fall into "abnormally dry" on the
drought monitor classification. Definitely a rain that falls
into the classic midwest "we needed this" category. Winds as
stated above will be dying off around sunset tonight with a few
gusts of 40-45 mph still expected, though looking to be less
widespread than previously thought given a southern MN low
around 995mb rather than 990mb as forecasted yesterday resulting
in a weaker surface PGF.

- Rest of the week

Zonal flow tomorrow will usher in much clearer skies, though it
will also bring below average temps which stay in place through
the workweek. Average highs for the period are around 60 so
about 5-10 degrees below average for most would be the
expectation. As we near the weekend thermal ridging finally
moves east off the rockies bring a slightly warmer mid level
airmass and pushing highs into the upper 50s and 60s. During
this time ensemble clusters show a number of low amplitude
shortwaves that could bring some more showers but any given
cluster never shows a higher than 30% chance for a tenth of an
inch or more. This slightly raises confidence in a mostly
inactive period but things are certain to change as is the norm
in the world of weather. The HDWI also fails to ever get above
the 75th percentile despite daily MinRH of 30 to 40 percent.
Would be surprised at the very least if there isnt a day of
elevated fire weather concerns over the next seven days... just
not sure where or when.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Widespread MVFR to IFR this afternoon with improvement to mostly
VFR by 7pm with BJI the exception as MVFR conditions linger
until around 9-10pm. Winds an equal concern through the
afternoon as 30kt gusts will be prevalent for most sites until
the 23z to 02z timeframe. This is just a rough estimate and
timing may fall outside this window for a given site but that
where confidence is for now at least. Linger rain ending in the
next few hours for all sites but visibility reductions are
already negligible so minimal concern from this. VFR for all
sites with a steady 10-15kt N/NNW wind by midnight onwards.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT